3222.0 - Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 22/11/2018   
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QUEENSLAND


INTRODUCTION

The population projections presented in this release are not predictions or forecasts. They are an assessment of what would happen to Australia's population if the assumed levels of the components of population change (births, deaths and migration) were to occur between 2018 and 2066.

The projections reveal the size, structure and distribution of the future population under various assumptions of future levels of fertility, mortality and migration. These assumptions are based on long and short-term trends and future scenarios dictated by research in Australia and elsewhere.

For simplicity, most analysis is limited to three selected series which cover three sets of possible future population growth outcomes: higher (series A), medium (series B) and lower (series C). However, there are a total of 72 series available for use.

Selected projection series

ASSUMPTIONS
PROJECTED POPULATION
Life expectancy at birth(a)
Total fertility rate(b)
Males
Females
Net overseas migration(b)
Net interstate migration(b)
2027
2042
2066
babies per woman
years
years
persons
persons
'000
'000
'000

Series A
2.03
87.3
89.1
45 650
20 000
5 931
7 598
10 469
Series B
1.88
82.7
85.9
37 350
11 000
5 789
6 963
8 718
Series C
1.72
82.7
85.9
29 050
6 000
5 676
6 492
7 507

(a) From 2066
(b) From 2027


PROJECTION RESULTS

Population size

Queensland's population of 4.9 million people as at 30 June 2017 is projected to increase by between 0.8% and 1.5% per year, reaching a population between 7.5 million and 10.5 million in 2066. This is slightly higher than the average annual growth rate projected for Australia as a whole.

The three selected series project continuing population growth throughout the projection period. In 2027, Queensland is projected to reach between 5.7 million and 5.9 million people. In series A, Queensland experiences strong and consistent growth, reaching 10.5 million in 2066. In series B, the population reaches 8.7 million in 2066, and in series C, growth is projected to be lower, with the population reaching 7.5 million in 2066.

Graph Image for Projected population, Queensland

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066



In each scenario, more of the projected growth occurs in Greater Brisbane than in the rest of the state. The proportion of Queensland's population living in Greater Brisbane is projected to increase slightly from 49% in 2017 to 51% by 2027, and to 55% by 2066 (in all series).

Greater Brisbane is projected to grow from 2.4 million in 2017 to between 2.9 million (series B and C) and 3.0 million (series A) in 2027. The rest of Queensland is projected to grow from 2.5 million to between 2.8 million (series C) and 2.9 million (series A and B) in 2027.

Graph Image for Projected population, Greater Brisbane

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066



Graph Image for Projected population, Rest of Queensland

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066




Natural increase

In 2016–17, there were 61,300 births and 30,700 deaths in Queensland, resulting in natural increase of 30,600 people.

In all projected series, births will continue to exceed the number of deaths during the projection period, resulting in sustained natural increase for Queensland.

In series A, numbers of both births and deaths increase over the projection period. The impact of the higher migration assumptions results in births increasing at a faster rate than deaths, leading natural increase to grow to 62,700 by 2066.

In series B, natural increase is projected to be similar to current levels, dropping slightly to 24,500 in 2066. The number of deaths per year are slightly higher than in series A, but the main difference is the lower number of births. Again, the difference in the migration assumptions between series A and B has more impact than the difference in the fertility assumption.

In series C, the number of births increase more slowly than the number of deaths, which sees natural increase decline to 2,400 in 2066.

Below the state level, Greater Brisbane experiences natural increase over the projection period for all series, but for the rest of Queensland, steady numbers of births coupled with increasing deaths in series C results in natural decrease from 2042 onwards.

Graph Image for Projected natural increase, Queensland

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066




Net overseas migration

In 2016–17, there were 88,200 overseas arrivals and 53,300 overseas departures in Queensland, resulting in net overseas migration (NOM) of 34,900 people.

In all series, overseas arrivals will exceed overseas departures throughout the projection period, resulting in positive NOM. NOM is projected to continue its recent increase for the first few years of the projection. Series A then continues to increase to 45,700 in 2066, series B stabilises at 37,400 and series C declines to 29,100.

Greater Brisbane is assumed to receive around 60% of the state's NOM.


Net interstate migration

In 2016–17, there were 98,400 interstate arrivals and 80,600 interstate departures in Queensland, resulting in a net interstate migration (NIM) gain of 17,800 people.

In all series, the number of interstate arrivals are projected to exceed interstate departures in Queensland, resulting in a net interstate migration gain. In series A, NIM is projected to increase to 20,000 people per year from 2027. In series B, NIM is projected to return to its recent average of 11,000 people per year in 2027, and in series C, NIM is projected to decrease to 6,000 people per year in 2027.

The proportion of the Queensland's NIM gain received by Greater Brisbane is projected to decrease in all series, from 68% in 2017 to 45% in 2066.


POPULATION AGEING

Median age

In all projected series, the median age of the population of Queensland is projected to increase from 37.1 years in 2017 to between 39.1 years (series A) and 43.0 years (series C) in 2066. In each case the median age of females increases by more than the median age of males.

Of the three selected series, series C projects the largest increase in the median age by 2066, with the median age of males increasing by 5.4 years to 41.8 years, and the median age of females increasing by 6.3 years to 44.2 years. Series A projects the lowest median age, with males increasing to 38.1 years and females increasing to 40.1 years. Series B projects the median age increasing to 39.2 years for males and 41.7 years for females.


Age structure

The graph below presents the age structure in 2066 for Queensland for series A, B and C, compared with the 2017 age structure.

In each of the three selected series, the proportion of people aged 65 and over will increase from 15% at 30 June 2017 to between 21% (series A and B) and 23% (series C) in 2066. Over the same period, the proportion of children (those aged 0–14) is projected to decrease from 20% to between 16% (series C), 18% (series B) and 19% (series A), while the working age population (those aged 15–65) is projected to decrease from 65% to between 60% (series A), and 61% (series B and C).

The proportion of the population aged 85 and over is projected to increase from 1.8% in 2017 to 3.7% in series B in 2066. The proportion is higher in both series C (4.2%) due to lower numbers of both births and younger migrants, and in series A (4.3%) due to higher numbers of older people resulting from increased life expectancy.

Graph Image for Population proportion(a), Queensland

Footnote(s): (a) The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066