3222.0 - Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 22/11/2018   
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VICTORIA


INTRODUCTION

The population projections presented in this release are not predictions or forecasts. They are an assessment of what would happen to Australia's population if the assumed levels of the components of population change (births, deaths and migration) were to occur between 2018 and 2066.

The projections reveal the size, structure and distribution of the future population under various assumptions of future levels of fertility, mortality and migration. These assumptions are based on long and short-term trends and future scenarios dictated by research in Australia and elsewhere.

For simplicity, most analysis is limited to three selected series which cover three sets of possible future population growth outcomes: higher (series A), medium (series B) and lower (series C). However, there are a total of 72 series available for use.

Selected projection series

ASSUMPTIONS
PROJECTED POPULATION
Life expectancy at birth(a)
Total fertility rate(b)
Males
Females
Net overseas migration(b)
Net interstate migration(b)
2027
2042
2066
babies per woman
years
years
persons
persons
'000
'000
'000

Series A
1.85
88.4
89.5
79 480
18 000
7 908
10 340
14 525
Series B
1.71
83.7
86.2
65 030
7 000
7 694
9 418
12 030
Series C
1.57
83.7
86.2
50 580
–2 000
7 497
8 638
10 091

(a) From 2066
(b) From 2027


PROJECTION RESULTS

Population size

Victoria's population of 6.3 million people is projected to increase by between 1.0% and 1.7% per year, reaching a population of between 10.1 million and 14.5 million by 2066. This is slightly higher than the average annual growth rate projected for Australia as a whole.

Series A, B and C have continued population growth throughout the projection period. In 2027, Victoria is projected to reach between 7.5 million and 7.9 million people. In series A, Victoria has strong and consistent growth, reaching 14.5 million people in 2066. In series B, the population reaches 12.0 million in 2066 and in series C growth is much lower, reaching 10.1 million in 2066.

Graph Image for Projected population, Victoria

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066



Most of Victoria's growth is projected to occur in Greater Melbourne. At 30 June 2017, Greater Melbourne had 77% of Victoria's population. This proportion could increase to 79% in 2027 and reach between 84% and 85% in 2066.

The population for Greater Melbourne is projected to increase from 4.8 million at 30 June 2017 to between 5.9 million (series C) and 6.2 million (series A) in 2027.

Projected growth rates for the rest of Victoria are smaller, with the population increasing from 1.5 million in 2017 to between 1.6 million in series C and 1.7 million (series A) in 2027.

Graph Image for Projected population, Greater Melbourne

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066



Graph Image for Projected population, Rest of Victoria

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066




Natural increase

In 2016–17, there were 78,300 births and 39,300 deaths in Victoria, resulting in natural increase of 39,000 people.

In all three series, births will continue to exceed the number of deaths during the projection period, resulting in sustained natural increase for Victoria.

Series A, B and C have higher, medium and lower fertility assumptions respectively, which is the main cause of differences in natural increase. Declining natural increase, particularly in series C, is also partly caused by an ageing population, resulting in a higher crude death rate and a smaller proportion of women in child-bearing ages. Overseas migrants tend to be younger so the higher NOM in series A contributes to more births.

Natural increase in series B is the most stable, peaking at 49,400 people in 2026 and reaching a low of 34,600 in 2066.

Below the state level, Greater Melbourne experiences natural increase over the projection period for all series. A natural increase between 15,200 (series C) and 88,700 (series A) is projected in 2066 for Greater Melbourne.

For the rest of Victoria, increasing deaths without corresponding increases in births result in a natural decrease in all series. A natural decrease between 1,400 (series A) and 11,400 (series C) is projected in 2066 for the rest of Victoria.

Graph Image for Projected natural increase, Victoria

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066




Net overseas migration

In Victoria in 2016–17, there were 158,500 overseas arrivals and 69,100 departures, resulting in a net overseas migration gain of 89,900 people.

In series A, B and C overseas arrivals exceed departures, resulting in positive NOM. Series A has the largest NOM with 79,500 people added to the population each year from 2027. Series B assumes NOM of 65,000 per year from 2027, while series C declines to 50,600 per year.

Greater Melbourne is assumed to receive around 92% of the state's NOM.


Net interstate migration

In 2016–17, there were 86,700 interstate arrivals and 68,500 departures, resulting in a net interstate migration gain of 18,200 people – the highest annual net gain on record.

In series A and B interstate arrivals exceed departures, resulting in positive NIM. Series A has the largest overall NIM, staying constant at 18,000 people per year from 2027. Series B assumes NIM of 7,000 per year from 2027, while series C assumes a NIM loss of 2,000 people per year from 2027.


POPULATION AGEING

Median age

The median age of Victoria's population is projected to increase from 36.8 years at 30 June 2017 to 39.5 years (series A), 40.7 years (series B) and 43.1 years (series C) in 2066. In all series the median age for females stays higher than for males.

Series A projects the median age of males to increase by 2.9 years, to 38.8, while the median age of females increases by 2.5 years to 40.2 in 2066. The faster ageing of the male population is due to greater increases in life expectancy among males. Series B projects both males and females to increase by 3.9 years. Series C projects the largest increase in median age for both males and females, with males increasing by 6.2 years and females increasing by 6.3 years by 2066.

Age structure

The graph below presents the age structure in 2066 for Victoria for series A, B and C, compared with the 2017 age structure.

The proportion of people aged 65 and over will increase from 15% at 30 June 2017 to 20% (series A), 21% (series B) or 23% (series C). Over the same period, the proportion of children (those aged 0–14) is projected to decrease from 18% to 18% (series A), 17% (series B) or 15% ( series C), while the working age population (those aged 15–64) is projected to decrease from 66% to 62% (series A, B and C).

The population aged 85 and over is projected to increase from 2.1% of the population in 2017 to between 3.5% (series B), 4.0% (series C) and 4.2% (series A) in 2066. While series B projects a larger number of people aged 85 and over compared to series C, they make up a smaller proportion of the total projected population.

Graph Image for Population proportion(a), Victoria

Footnote(s): (a) The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066