3222.0 - Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 22/11/2018   
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NEW SOUTH WALES


INTRODUCTION

The population projections presented in this release are not predictions or forecasts. They are an assessment of what would happen to Australia's population if the assumed levels of the components of population change (births, deaths and migration) were to occur between 2018 and 2066.

The projections reveal the size, structure and distribution of the future population under various assumptions of future levels of fertility, mortality and migration. These assumptions are based on long and short-term trends and future scenarios dictated by research in Australia and elsewhere.

For simplicity, most analysis is limited to three selected series which cover three sets of possible future population growth outcomes: high (series A), medium (series B) and low (series C). However, there are a total of 72 series available for use.

Selected projection series

ASSUMPTIONS
PROJECTED POPULATION
Life expectancy at birth(a)
Total fertility rate(b)
Males
Females
Net overseas migration(b)
Net interstate migration(b)
2027
2042
2066
babies per woman
years
years
persons
persons
'000
'000
'000

Series A
1.97
87.7
89.2
89 100
–21 000
9 285
11 322
14 796
Series B
1.82
83.0
86.0
72 900
–13 500
9 152
10 739
13 088
Series C
1.67
83.0
86.0
56 700
–7 000
9 022
10 231
11 754

(a) From 2066
(b) From 2027


PROJECTION RESULTS

Population size

New South Wales' population of 7.9 million people is projected to increase by between 0.7% and 1.4% per year, reaching a population between 11.0 million and 15.6 million in 2066. This is slightly lower than the average annual growth rate projected for Australia as a whole.

The three selected series project continuing population growth throughout the projection period. In 2027, New South Wales is projected to reach between 9.0 million (series C) and 9.3 million people (series A). In series A, New South Wales experiences consistent high growth, reaching 14.8 million in 2066. In series B, the population will reach 13.1 million in 2066 and in series C, growth is projected to be lower, with the population reaching 11.8 million in 2066.

The combination of assumptions in series 3 results in the largest population for New South Wales in 2027 (9.4 million people). The difference to series A is the assumption of smaller interstate migration flows, which results in a smaller loss of 7,000 people per year for New South Wales. Conversely, series 52, which compared to series C has larger interstate migration flows, resulting in a net loss of 21,000 people per year, projects the smallest population by 2027 (8.9 million people).

Graph Image for Projected population, New South Wales

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066



Most of New South Wales growth is projected to occur in Greater Sydney. At 30 June 2017, Greater Sydney had 65% of New South Wales' population. This proportion could reach between 67% and 68% in 2027, and around 70% by 2042.

The population for Greater Sydney is projected to increase from 5.1 million at 30 June 2017 to between 6.0 million (series 52) and 6.4 million (series 3) in 2027. The three selected series project population growth over the whole projection period, with series A increasing to 11.2 million in 2066, series B increasing to 9.7 million and series C increasing to 8.5 million.

Population growth for the rest of New South Wales is smaller, increasing from 2.7 million in 2017 to between 2.9 million (series 52) and 3.0 million (series 3) in 2027. The three selected series project population growth over the whole projection period, with series A increasing to 3.6 million in 2066, series B increasing to 3.3 million and series C increasing to 3.2 million.

Graph Image for Projected population, Greater Sydney

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066



Graph Image for Projected population, Rest of New South Wales

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066




Natural increase

In 2016–17, there were 98,600 births and 53,800 deaths in New South Wales, resulting in natural increase of 44,700 people.

In all projected series, births will continue to exceed the number of deaths during the projection period, resulting in sustained natural increase for New South Wales.

In series A, numbers of both births and deaths increase over the projection period. The impact of the high overseas migration assumption results in births increasing at a faster rate than deaths, however, leading natural increase to grow to 87,300 by 2066.

In series B, natural increase is projected to decrease to 37,500 in 2066. The number of deaths per year are higher than in series A, but there are fewer births. Again, the difference in the migration assumption between series A and B has more impact than the difference in the fertility assumption.

In series C, the number of births increase more slowly than the number of deaths, which sees natural increase decline to 6,100 in 2066.

Below the state level, Greater Sydney experiences natural increase over the projection period for all series, but for the rest of New South Wales, steady numbers of births coupled with increasing deaths in series A and B results in natural decrease by 2040 and 2031 respectively. Series C is projected to reach natural decrease by 2028 due to declining numbers of births.

Graph Image for Projected natural increase, New South Wales

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066




Net overseas migration

In 2016–17, there were 197,500 overseas arrivals and 92,800 overseas departures in New South Wales, resulting in net overseas migration (NOM) of 104,600 people.

In all series, NOM is projected to decline from the high recorded in 2017, returning NOM to its long term average. Overseas arrivals are projected to exceed overseas departures in all series, resulting in positive NOM.

Series A projects the largest NOM gains, of 89,100 per year from 2027. Series B projects NOM to decrease to 72,900, and series C projects NOM to decrease to 56,700.

Greater Sydney is assumed to receive 86% of the state's NOM.


Net interstate migration

In 2016–17, there were 94,500 interstate arrivals and 109,600 interstate departures in New South Wales, resulting in a net interstate migration (NIM) loss of 15,200 people.

In all series, the projected number of interstate departures exceeds interstate arrivals in New South Wales, resulting in a net interstate migration loss.

In series A, the high assumption of large interstate flows results in the largest NIM loss of 21,000 people from 2027 onwards. In series B, NIM is projected to remain steady with a NIM loss of 13,500 people from 2027. The assumption of low interstate flows in series C results in the lowest NIM loss of 7,000 people from 2027, providing the highest population for New South Wales.


POPULATION AGEING

Median age

The median age of the population of New South Wales is projected to increase from 37.5 years at 30 June 2017 to between 39.6 years (series A), 40.8 years (series B) and 43.1 years (series C) in 2066.

Series A projects the median age of males to increase by 2.3 years, to 38.9, while the median age of females increases by 2.0 years to 40.4 in 2066. The faster ageing of the male population is due to greater increases in life expectancy among males. Series B projects both males and females to increase by 3.3 years. Series C projects the largest increase in median age for both males and females, with males increasing by 5.6 years and females increasing by 5.7 years by 2066.


Age structure

The graph below presents the age structure for New South Wales for series A, B and C, compared to the 2017 age structure.

In the three selected series, the proportion of people aged 65 and over will increase from 16% at 30 June 2017 to between 21% (series A and B) and 23% (series C) in 2066. Over the same period the number of children (those aged 0–14) is projected to decrease from 19% to between 16% (series C), 17% (series B) and 18% (series A), while the working age population (those aged 15–65) is projected to decrease from 65% to between 61% (series A and C) and 62% (series B).

The population aged 85 and over is projected to increase from 2.2% of the population in 2017 to between 3.7% (series B), 4.1% (series C) and 4.4% (series A) in 2066. While series B projects a larger number of people aged 85 and over compared to series C, they make up a smaller proportion of the total projected population.

Graph Image for Population proportion(a), New South Wales

Footnote(s): (a) The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066