3222.0 - Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 22/11/2018   
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NOTES


ABOUT THIS ISSUE

This publication contains projections of Australia's population by state/territory, capital city/rest of state, age and sex for the period 30 June 2018 to 2066. They have been updated to reflect the 2016 Census-based population estimates. Figures for 30 June 2017 are preliminary estimated resident population.

Three selected series of projections (series A, B and C) are presented in this publication for analysis and reporting.


CHANGES TO THIS ISSUE

These projections supersede the 2012-based series published in Population Projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101 (cat. no. 3222.0) in November 2013.

For this issue, we have limited the projection period to 50 years from the 2016 Census, due to the increased uncertainty in the data the further out it is projected from the base year.

A longer time series of historical data has been used to form assumptions of fertility to reduce the impact registration lag for some states and territories. Additionally and for the same reason, births by year of occurrence, adjusted with an estimate of registration lag, has been used in place of births by year of registration to form fertility assumptions.

A longer time series of historical data has also been used to form assumptions for net overseas migration and net interstate migration, due to the volatility of these components.

Similarly, a longer time series of historical data has been used to calculate the state and territory splits of each component.


DATA NOTES

The projections presented are not intended to be predictions or forecasts, but are illustrations of growth and change in the population that would occur if assumptions made about future demographic trends were to prevail over the projection period.

While the assumptions are formulated on the basis of an assessment of past demographic trends there is no certainty that any of the assumptions will be realised. In addition, no assessment has been made of possible future changes in non-demographic conditions.


ROUNDING

Some population estimates and projections in this publication have been rounded. Calculations of percentage change, numeric change and proportions are based on unrounded data.


INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070.


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