3222.0 - Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 22/11/2018   
   Page tools: Print Print Page Print all pages in this productPrint All RSS Feed RSS Bookmark and Share Search this Product


AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY


INTRODUCTION

The population projections presented in this release are not predictions or forecasts. They are an assessment of what would happen to Australia's population if the assumed levels of the components of population change (births, deaths and migration) were to occur between 2018 and 2066.

The projections reveal the size, structure and distribution of the future population under various assumptions of future levels of fertility, mortality and migration. These assumptions are based on long and short-term trends and future scenarios dictated by research in Australia and elsewhere.

For simplicity, most analysis is limited to three selected series which cover three sets of possible future population growth outcomes: higher (series A), medium (series B) and lower (series C). However, there are a total of 72 series available for use.

Selected projection series

ASSUMPTIONS
PROJECTED POPULATION
Life expectancy at birth(a)
Total fertility rate(b)
Males
Females
Net overseas migration(b)
Net interstate migration(b)
2027
2042
2066
babies per woman
years
years
persons
persons
'000
'000
'000

Series A
1.79
88.8
90.0
3 850
1 500
510
664
939
Series B
1.65
84.0
86.6
3 150
500
495
602
775
Series C
1.51
84.0
86.6
2 450
–1 000
479
537
612

(a) From 2066
(b) From 2027


PROJECTION RESULTS

Population size

The Australian Capital Territory’s population of 412,000 people as at 30 June 2017 is projected to increase by an average of between 0.8% and 1.7% per year to 2066. In most series the projected growth rate for the Australian Capital Territory is faster than for Australia as a whole.

The three selected series project continuing population growth throughout the projection period. In 2027 the Australian Capital Territory is projected to reach between 479,200 (series C) and 510,000 (series A). In series A, the Australian Capital Territory's population is projected to more than double by 2066, to 938,800 people. In series B, the population reaches 774,700 in 2066, and in series C, growth is projected to be lower, with the population reaching 612,500 in 2066.

Graph Image for Projected population, Australian Capital Territory

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066




Natural increase

In 2016–17, there were 5,600 births and 2,100 deaths in the Australian Capital Territory, resulting in natural increase of 3,500 people.

In the three selected series, births will continue to exceed the number of deaths during the projection period, resulting in natural increase for the Australian Capital Territory. Numbers of deaths are similar between the three series, with series B projecting the highest number of deaths. The main driver of differences in natural increase across the projection series is the number of births.

In series A, a higher number of births results in natural increase growing over the projection period to 7,000 in 2066. This is due to a combination of the higher fertility and higher migration assumptions. In series B, natural increase is more level over the period, reaching 3,600 by the end of the projection series. In series C the level of natural increase declines to 1,300 in 2066. This is due to the combined effect of lower fertility and lower migration assumptions.

Graph Image for Projected natural increase, Australian Capital Territory

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066




Net overseas migration

In 2016–17, there were 10,200 overseas arrivals and 6,100 overseas departures in the Australian Capital Territory, resulting in net overseas migration (NOM) of 4,100 people.

Each of the three selected series project a decline in NOM from the recent high in 2017, returning NOM to longer term averages. Overseas arrivals will exceed overseas departures in all series, resulting in positive NOM.

Series A projects the largest NOM gain of 3,900 from 2027. Series B projects NOM to decrease to 3,200, and series C projects NOM to decrease further to 2,500.


Net interstate migration

In 2016–17, there were 21,400 interstate arrivals and 20,100 interstate departures in the Australian Capital Territory, resulting in a net interstate migration (NIM) gain of 1,200 people.

In series A, the higher assumption of large interstate flows results in a NIM gain of 1,500 people per year from 2027, similar to current levels. Series B projects a NIM gain of 500 people per year from 2027, in line with the recent historical average. The assumption of small interstate flows in series C results in a NIM loss of 1,000 people per year from 2027.


POPULATION AGEING

Median age

In all series, the median age of the population of the Australian Capital Territory is projected to increase, from 35.0 years in 2017 to between 36.9 (series A), 38.0 (series B) and 40.2 (series C) in 2066. The median age of females increases more than the median age of males in series B and C, but in series A the increase was equal, reflecting the gains in male life expectancy under the higher series assumption. In each series, the Australian Capital Territory is projected to remain as the state or territory with the second lowest median age, after the Northern Territory.

Of the three selected series, series C projects the largest increase in the median age by 2066, with the median age of males increasing by 4.9 years to 39.3 years, and the median age of females increasing by 5.5 years to 41.2 years. Series A projects the lowest median age, with males increasing to 36.3 years and females increasing to 37.6 years. Series B projects the median age increasing to 37.2 years for males and 38.8 years for females.


Age structure

The graph below presents the age structure for the Australian Capital Territory for series A, B and C in 2066, compared to the 2017 age structure.

In the three selected series, the proportion of people aged 65 and over will increase from 13% at 30 June 2017 to between 17% (series A and B) and 20% (series C) in 2066. Over the same period, the proportion of children (those aged 0–14) is projected to decrease from 19.0% to between 16% (series C), 17% (series B) and 19% (series A), while the working age population (those aged 15–65) is projected to decrease from 69% to between 64% (series A) and 65% (series B and C).

The proportion of the population aged 85 and over is projected to increase from 1.5% in 2017 to between 3.2% (series B) and 3.8% (series A and C) in 2066.

Graph Image for Population proportion(a), Australian Capital Territory

Footnote(s): (a) The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066