3222.0 - Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 22/11/2018   
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TASMANIA


INTRODUCTION

The population projections presented in this release are not predictions or forecasts. They are an assessment of what would happen to Australia's population if the assumed levels of the components of population change (births, deaths and migration) were to occur between 2018 and 2066.

The projections reveal the size, structure and distribution of the future population under various assumptions of future levels of fertility, mortality and migration. These assumptions are based on long and short-term trends and future scenarios dictated by research in Australia and elsewhere.

For simplicity, most analysis is limited to three selected series which cover three sets of possible future population growth outcomes: higher (series A), medium (series B) and lower (series C). However, there are a total of 72 series available for use.

Selected projection series

ASSUMPTIONS
PROJECTED POPULATION
Life expectancy at birth(a)
Total fertility rate(b)
Males
Females
Net overseas migration(b)
Net interstate migration(b)
2027
2042
2066
babies per woman
years
years
persons
persons
'000
'000
'000

Series A
2.11
86.0
88.5
2 200
1 500
573
641
744
Series B
1.95
81.4
84.3
1 800
0
559
577
581
Series C
1.79
81.4
84.3
1 400
–1 500
545
522
453

(a) From 2066
(b) From 2027


PROJECTION RESULTS

Population size

Tasmania's population of 522,300 people is projected to reach a population of between 544,900 and 573,300 in 2027. In series A and B, the population is projected to increase to 744,500 and 580,500 respectively in 2066.

Tasmania is the only state which is projected to potentially decline by 2066. The combination of assumptions in series C results in overall population decline to 452,700 by 2066. The assumption of small interstate migration flows for Tasmania results in a net loss of 1,500 people per year. As many of these migrants are assumed to be younger people, this additionally leads to lower levels of births. At the same time, the lower life expectancy assumption leads to high numbers of deaths when applied to Tasmania's ageing population. This combination of assumptions leads to population decline in series C.

Graph Image for Projected population, Tasmania

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066



The population of Greater Hobart is projected to grow in each series. In 2017, Greater Hobart had a population of 229,100 which made up 44% of Tasmania's population. This proportion could reach 46% in 2027 and reach between 55% and 57% in 2066.

Series A projects the highest population for Greater Hobart in 2027 (264,600 people) and series C projects the smallest population (250,700 people). Series B is projected to reach 257,500 people.

Population growth for the rest of Tasmania is smaller, with both series B and series C projecting population decline. This is the combined result of less births, more deaths and higher net interstate migration losses.

The combination of assumptions in series A projects the highest population for the rest of Tasmania in 2027 (308,700 people) and series C projects the smallest population (294,200 people). Series B is projected to reach 301,200 people.

Graph Image for Projected population, Greater Hobart

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066



Graph Image for Projected population, Rest of Tasmania

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066




Natural increase

In 2016–17, there were 5,600 births and 4,600 deaths in Tasmania, resulting in natural increase of 1,000 people.

In each of the three selected series, the number of deaths is projected to increase, while in series B and C the number of births decreases, leading to a natural decrease for Tasmania.

In series A, the assumptions of higher fertility and life expectancy results in natural increase returning to the current level 1,000 in 2066. In series B, natural increase is projected to gradually decline to –1,700 by the end of the projection series. In series C, the assumptions of lower fertility and medium life expectancy see natural increase decline to –2,900 in 2066.

Below the state level, Greater Hobart experiences natural increase over the projection period for series A, but lower numbers of births in series B and C result in natural decrease from 2048 and 2034 respectively. For the rest of Tasmania, natural decrease is projected from 2032 in series A, from 2026 in series B and from 2023 in series C.

Graph Image for Projected natural increase, Tasmania

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066




Net overseas migration

In 2016–17, there were 4,600 overseas arrivals and 2,400 overseas departures in Tasmania, resulting in net overseas migration (NOM) of 2,200 people.

In the three selected series, NOM is projected to decline from the high recorded in 2017, returning NOM to its longer term average. Overseas arrivals will exceed overseas departures in all series, resulting in positive NOM.

Series A projects the largest NOM gain of 2,200 people per year from 2027. Series B projects NOM to decrease to 1,800 per year and series C projects NOM to decrease to 1,400.

Greater Hobart is assumed to receive around 60% of the state's NOM.


Net interstate migration

In 2016–17, there were 13,000 interstate arrivals and 11,500 interstate departures in Tasmania, resulting in a net interstate migration (NIM) loss of 1,500 people.

In series A, the higher NIM assumption results in a gain of 1,500 people from 2027. In series B, NIM is projected to be zero (arrivals being equal to departures) from 2027. Series C assumes a NIM loss of 1,500 people from 2027.


POPULATION AGEING

Median age

In the three selected series, the median age of Tasmania's population is projected to increase from 42.2 years at 30 June 2017 to between 44.7 years (series A) and 49.6 years (series C) in 2066. In each of these series, Tasmania is the state or territory with the highest median age.

Series C projects the largest increase in the median age from 2017 to 2066, with the median age of males increasing by 7.2 years to 48.2 years, and the median age of females increasing by 7.7 years to 51.0 years. Series A projects the lowest median age, with males increasing to 43.6 years and females increasing to 45.9 years. Series B projects median ages in between, with males increasing to 44.8 years and females increasing to 47.5 years.


Age structure

The graph below presents the age structure for Tasmania for series A, B and C, compared to the 2017 age structure.

In the three selected series, the proportion of people aged 65 and over will increase from 19% at 30 June 2017 to between 27% (series A) and 30% (series C) in 2066. Over the same period, the number of children (those aged 0–14) is projected to decrease from 18% to between 17% (series A) and 14% (series C). The working age population (those aged 15–65) is projected to decrease from 63% in 2017 to between 57% (series B) and 55% (series C).

The population aged 85 and over is projected to increase from 2.3% of the population in 2017 to between 4.8% (series B), 5.7% (series C) and 5.8% (series A) in 2066.

Graph Image for Population proportion(a), Tasmania

Footnote(s): (a) The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066