5676.0 - Business Indicators, Australia, Mar 2014 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 02/06/2014   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

Graph: Trend Revisions


What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
rises by 1.0% on this quarter (1)
falls by 1.0% on this quarter (2)
$m
%
$m
%
$m
%

2013
June
157 216
-0.1
157 216
-0.1
157 216
-0.1
September
156 467
-0.5
156 406
-0.5
156 587
-0.4
December
155 191
-0.8
155 222
-0.8
155 161
-0.9
2014
March
153 568
-1.0
154 224
-0.6
153 355
-1.2



Company gross operating profits (Current prices)

Graph: Trend Revisions


What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
rises by 4.2% on this quarter (1)
falls by 4.2% on this quarter (2)
$m
%
$m
%
$m
%

2013
June
64 885
2.7
64 885
2.7
64 885
2.7
September
66 798
2.9
66 694
2.8
67 060
3.4
December
68 795
3.0
68 831
3.2
68 704
2.5
2014
March
70 794
2.9
71 185
3.4
69 423
1.0