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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jun 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 13/08/2004   
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KEY FIGURES


May 04
Jun 03
Jun
to Jun
to Jun
04
04
04
%
%
'000
change
change
Short-term visitor arrivals

Trend
425.1
0.2
. .
Seasonally adjusted
429.6
1.1
. .
Original
367.3
. .
19.1
Short-term resident departures
Trend
358.6
0.8
. .
Seasonally adjusted
364.6
5.6
. .
Original
396.5
. .
43.9


Graph: Visitor arrivals, short-term
Graph: Resident departures, short-term


KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES
  • The trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during June 2004 (425,100 movements) increased by 0.2% compared with May 2004. This followed monthly decreases from December 2003 to April 2004 and a revised increase of 0.1% for May 2004.
  • Short-term resident departures continued the steady monthly increase in the series since April 2003. The trend estimate for June 2004 (358,600 movements) represents an increase of 0.8% compared with the previous month and followed revised increases of 1.1% for April and 1.0% for May 2004.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate of short-term visitor arrivals for June 2004 (429,600 movements) increased by 1.1% compared with May 2004. This followed an increase of 0.9% for April and little change for May 2004.
  • Short-term resident departures for June 2004 (364,600 movements) increased by 5.6% compared with May 2004 and followed an increase of 4.6% for April and a decrease of 5.0% for May 2004.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original terms there were 367,300 short-term visitor arrival movements to Australia during June 2004, representing an increase of 19.1% compared with June 2003 (308,300 movements).
  • There were 396,500 short-term resident departures for June 2004, an increase of 43.9% compared with June 2003 (275,600 movements).
  • Original estimates are influenced by seasonal and one-off irregular factors which can distort interpretations of the underlying growth in the series. Therefore, the ABS encourages the use of trend estimates for time series analysis.


NOTES

EARLY ESTIMATES

Early estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for July 2004 will be available on the ABS website http://www.abs.gov.au on 17 August 2004. These estimates can be accessed by going to the home page and selecting Main Features (located under Statistical Products and Services) and then 34. Migration. Select Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0.55.001).


DATA NOTES

For data quality issues see the appendix of this publication.

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

Calculations of percentage and numeric change as shown in the Key Points and/or Main Features of this publication are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 11 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


FORTHCOMING CHANGES

As of the August 2004 issue (to be released 14 October 2004), the presentation of information by country will be based on the Standard Australian Classification of Countries (SACC). This will replace the currently used Australian Standard Classification of Countries for Social Statistics (ASCCSS). For more detailed information refer to the ABS publication Standard Australian Classification of Countries (SACC), 1998 (cat. no. 1269.0).

The lists of countries listed in spreadsheets 3, 5, 8a and 8b of this publication will also be revised to reflect current trends. This will result in the presentation of information on more countries than in this issue. For more information, ring Chrissy Beruldsen on (02) 6252 5640.


ABBREVIATIONS

ABSAustralian Bureau of Statistics
ASCCSSAustralian Standard Classification of Countries for Social Statistics
DIMIADepartment of Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs
OADOverseas Arrivals and Departures Collection
SARSpecial Administrative Region
TRIPSTravel and Immigration Processing System


INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Chrissy Beruldsen on Canberra (02) 6252 5640 or c.beruldsen@abs.gov.au.


MAIN FEATURES

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals for June 2004 recorded the second consecutive monthly increase since December 2003. However, several additional estimates will be required before a turning point can be confirmed. Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 2% lower than when the series last peaked in November 2003 (431,700 movements).

The following table presents the top ten source countries, in original terms, for short-term visitor arrivals during June 2004, along with percentage and numeric change compared with June 2003.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Major Source Countries - June 2004

June
June
Numeric
Percentage
2004
2003
change
change
'000
'000
'000
%

New Zealand
89.4
67.9
21.5
31.7
Japan
46.1
29.5
16.6
56.1
United States of America
40.4
38.5
1.9
5.1
United Kingdom
30.4
28.9
1.5
5.1
Singapore
26.3
30.3
-4.1
-13.4
Korea
14.2
14.1
0.1
0.4
China
13.9
4.5
9.4
208.3
Malaysia
12.0
8.7
3.3
38.1
Taiwan
10.0
3.8
6.3
167.3
Hong Kong (SAR of China)
8.7
12.9
-4.3
-33.1


In original terms, there were 5,057,200 short-term visitor arrivals during 2003 - 04 financial year, up 9% compared with 2002-03.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures have recorded consecutive monthly growth rates since April 2003. However, estimates since January 2004 indicate that this growth rate is waning. Short-term resident departures are 26% higher this month than when the series last troughed in March 2003 (285,400 movements).

The following table presents the top ten destinations, in original terms, for short-term resident departures during June 2004, along with percentage and numeric change compared with June 2003.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Major Destinations - June 2004

June
June
Numeric
Percentage
2004
2003
change
change
'000
'000
'000
%

New Zealand
52.3
38.9
13.4
34.4
United Kingdom
44.1
34.4
9.7
28.2
United States of America
39.4
28.4
11.0
38.8
Indonesia
32.5
16.3
16.2
99.1
Fiji
14.9
13.2
1.8
13.4
Thailand
14.5
9.4
5.1
55.0
China
13.8
4.6
9.2
199.8
Malaysia
13.4
7.0
6.5
93.1
Singapore
13.3
7.3
6.0
83.3
Italy
13.2
7.9
5.3
67.7


In original terms, there were 3,936,800 short-term resident departures during the 2003-04 financial year, up 20% compared with 2002-03.


SHORT-TERM VISITOR DEPARTURES

During the 2003-04 financial year there were 5,109,300 visitors who departed Australia after a stay of less than 12 months, up 8% on the 2002-03 financial year. Comparing 2003-04 to 2002-03, visitors who spent the most of their time in the Northern Territory declined 15%, while increases occurred for Victoria (up 33%), Queensland (up 5%), New South Wales (up 2%), South Australia (up 19%), Tasmania (up 24%), the Australian Capital Territory (up 21%) and Western Australia (up 1%).

PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 10,060 permanent (settler) arrivals into Australia during June 2004, an increase of 6% compared with June 2003 (9,470 movements). Settlers born in both the United Kingdom and New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion (12%) of permanent arrivals for June 2004, followed by China (10%).

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures (OAD) relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Therefore, care should be taken when using long-term arrivals data as it is known some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term arrivals in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).

There were 4,200 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during June 2004, an increase of 18% compared with June 2003 (3,570 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section.

TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS

Care should be taken when comparing estimates over time, particularly when using original estimates for time-series analysis. The original series is affected by such world events as the Bali bombing, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and the anticipation and commencement of military action in Iraq, which resulted in fewer than usual visitor arrivals and resident departures during the first half of 2003. The ABS encourages the use of the trend series for time series analysis. See paragraph 21 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

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