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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Oct 2005  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 05/12/2005   
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OCTOBER KEY FIGURES

Oct '05
Sep '05 to Oct '05
Oct '04 to Oct '05
'000
% change
% change

Short-term visitor arrivals
Trend
462.3
0.5
4.1
Seasonally adjusted
460.8
0.3
. .
Original
462.6
. .
. .
Short-term resident departures
Trend
402.0
-
7.4
Seasonally adjusted
383.8
-6.5
. .
Original
353.7
. .
. .

. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Visitor arrivals Short-term

Resident departures, Short-term
Graph: Resident departures Short-term



OCTOBER KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES

  • The trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during October 2005 (462,300 movements) increased by 0.5% compared with September 2005. This followed monthly increases of 0.4% each for August 2005 and September 2005.
  • Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 1.6% higher than when the series last troughed in June 2005 (454,900 movements) and 4.1% higher than in October 2004.
  • During October 2005, short-term resident departures (402,000 movements) changed little when compared with September 2005 (402,100 movements). This followed monthly increases of 0.3% for August 2005 and 0.1% for September 2005.
  • While the trend estimate for short-term resident departures changed little in October 2005, it is still 40.0% higher than when the series last troughed in March 2003 (287,100 movements) and 7.4% higher than in October 2004.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • Seasonally adjusted estimates for short-term visitor arrivals during October 2005 (460,800 movements) increased by 0.3% compared with September 2005. This followed a monthly increase of 1.6% for August 2005 and a monthly decrease of 1.2% for September 2005.
  • Short-term resident departures for October 2005 (383,800 movements) decreased by 6.5% compared with September 2005 and followed monthly increases of 1.1% for August 2005 and 2.6% for September 2005.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original movement terms, there were 462,600 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia and 353,700 short-term resident departures from Australia during October 2005.


NOTES


EARLY ESTIMATES

Early estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for November 2005 will be available on the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) web site on 19 December 2005. These estimates can be accessed by going to the AusStats web page <http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats> and selecting Publications & Data and then Main Features. Select 34 Migration and then select Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0.55.001).



DATA NOTES

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


Calculations in this publication are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 12 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.



TAKE CARE

Short-term Visitor Arrivals from Malaysia - Care should be taken when interpreting the short-term visitor arrivals seasonally adjusted series for Malaysia. At this stage, reasons for the recent large movements in the series have not been identified. As the last three months' increases and decreases compensate each other, the trend series is not distorted. ABS will continue to evaluate this seasonally adjusted series and report if significant changes to the series have been made.


Short-term Resident Departures to Indonesia - Short-term departures of Australian residents to Indonesia declined sharply from September 2005 to October 2005 in association with the terrorist attacks in Bali in October. A similar decline was experienced in this series in 2002 in association with the terrorist attack of that year, which also occurred in Bali in October. This decline caused a break in the trend series due to the sustained reduction in the number of short-term resident departures to Indonesia. The ABS is monitoring this pattern and if the decline seen in October of this year is sustained it may also necessitate a break in the trend series.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.



MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in October 2005 (462,300 movements) increased 4.1% compared with October 2004. This is the fourth consecutive increase in the series. Short-term visitor arrivals are currently 1.6% higher than when the series last troughed in June 2005 (454,900 movements).


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during October 2005. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the percentage change in trend compared with September 2005 and October 2004.

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Major Source Countries - October 2005

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Sep 05 to Oct 05
Oct 04 to Oct 05
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
91.4
93.2
103.2
-0.1
3.9
United Kingdom
58.5
58.1
60.3
0.7
5.0
Japan
59.2
56.2
54.6
2.6
-4.7
United States of America
36.8
35.8
32.7
-0.8
2.2
Singapore
23.3
23.6
21.3
-0.1
7.6
Korea
20.8
21.1
20.2
-0.6
13.6
China
22.5
21.7
19.6
0.8
-2.1
Germany
12.5
12.0
15.5
-0.2
5.0
Malaysia
14.7
18.2
14.1
2.3
-4.1
Hong Kong
13.2
12.7
11.6
-2.1
9.5



SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, there was little change in short-term resident departures from Australia in October 2005 (402,000 movements) compared with September 2005 (402,100 movements). Short-term resident departures were 7.4% higher than in October 2004.


The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during October 2005. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the percentage change in trend compared with September 2005 and October 2004.

Short-term Resident Departures, Major Destinations - October 2005

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Sep 05 to Oct 05
Oct 04 to Oct 05
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
71.0
70.4
61.0
0.6
1.5
United States of America
36.5
35.7
33.4
1.2
15.4
Thailand
17.3
19.3
25.5
3.2
6.0
China
20.3
19.4
23.0
-0.2
21.5
United Kingdom
32.1
28.6
22.4
-2.9
3.6
Fiji
16.2
16.0
17.7
-0.4
3.4
Indonesia
26.5
15.4
17.4
-2.6
-2.9
Singapore
16.1
15.3
15.2
1.6
11.6
Hong Kong
16.3
15.6
14.5
-1.6
18.6
Malaysia
12.3
12.6
12.4
-0.5
-3.1



SHORT-TERM TRAVEL - CANADA

Short-term visitor arrivals

Trend estimates for October 2005 show the number of short-term visitor arrivals from Canada represented 2% (8,200 movements) of all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia. While the series has shown fluctuations over the past ten years it has generally followed an upward trend. The highest point in the series was in March 2005 (8,900 movements), while the lowest point was in September 1996 (4,900 movements). The October 2005 trend estimate for arrivals from Canada was 2% lower than for September 2005 and marginally lower than October 2004.

CANADA, Short-term Visitor Arrivals
Graph: CANADA, Short-term Visitor Arrivals



In original terms, short-term visitor arrivals from Canada stated holiday (50%) as the main reason for journey, followed by visiting friends and relatives (25%) and business (12%). These were also the main reasons for all short-term visitors to Australia: holiday (55%), visiting friends and relatives (19%) and business (11%). The median age of visitors from Canada was 46 years (41 years for all visitors) while the median intended duration of stay was 21 days (10 days for all visitors).


New South Wales (48%), Queensland (22%) and Victoria (17%) were the main states/territories of intended stay for short-term visitors from Canada. These states were also the main destination for all short-term visitors: New South Wales (38%), Queensland (30%) and Victoria (18%).


Short-term resident departures

Trend estimates show the number of residents departing Australia, short-term, for Canada represented 2% (7,800 movements) of all short-term resident departures in October 2005. While the series has shown fluctuations over the past ten years it has generally followed an upward trend, with strong growth evident since November 2003. The current month (October 2005) is the highest point in the series while the lowest point was in February 1996 (3,300 movements). The October 2005 trend estimate for departures to Canada was marginally higher than for September 2005 and 15% higher than for October 2004.

CANADA, Short-term Resident Departures
Graph: CANADA, Short-term Resident Departures



In original terms, 37% of Australian residents travelling to Canada stated holiday as their main reason for journey, followed by visiting friends and relatives (24%), business (15%) and convention/conference (12%). For all residents departing Australia short-term the main reasons for journey were holiday (47%), visiting friends and relatives (22%) and business (18%). The median age of residents departing to Canada was 37 years (42 years for all residents) while the median intended duration of stay was 17 days for residents departing to Canada, compared with 14 days for all residents departing short-term.



PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 11,000 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during October 2005, an increase of 13.8% when compared with October 2004 (9,700 movements). People born in the United Kingdom accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (21%), followed by people born in New Zealand (14%) and India (8%).


There were 4,900 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during October 2005, an increase of 6.9% when compared with October 2004 (4,600 movements).


Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Therefore, care should be taken when using long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).



STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates add to the understanding of overseas arrivals and departures (OAD) statistics. Seasonally adjusted estimates allow users to analyse short-term movements including irregular impacts on the series, while trend estimates provide a better method to analyse and monitor the underlying direction of the short-term movement series. In most cases the trend series is the best source of information on the long-term direction of these statistics.



SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Selected source countries

The graphs presented below illustrate the long-term increase in the trend series for arrivals from the United Kingdom and New Zealand and the significant impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) on the seasonally adjusted arrivals series from Japan in mid 2003.

United Kingdom
Graph: United Kingdom
New Zealand
Graph: New Zealand
Japan
Graph: Japan




SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

Selected destinations

For residents departing to the United States of America the graph illustrates the effect of the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in that country on short-term departures of Australian residents to the United States of America. The graph for New Zealand illustrates that departures of Australian residents, which had been experiencing strong growth since May 2003, have plateaued. For Indonesia the graph shows the impact of events such as the October 2002 Bali bombing and the reduced level of travel for the next twelve months. While the effect of the October 2005 Bali bombing is evident in the seasonally adjusted series, the long-term impact on the trend series is not yet known and is being monitored.

United States of America
Graph: United States of America
New Zealand
Graph: New Zealand
Indonesia
Graph: Indonesia


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