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5368.0 - International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, Aug 2007  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 03/10/2007   
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AUGUST KEY FIGURES

June 2007
July 2007
August 2007
Jul 07 to Aug 07
$m
$m
$m
% change

TREND

Balance on goods and services
-1 301
-1 368
-1 412
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
18 275
18 327
18 375
-
Debits (imports of goods & services)
19 576
19 695
19 787
-

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

Balance on goods and services
-1 829
-883
-1 614
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
17 924
18 317
18 638
2
Debits (imports of goods & services)
19 753
19 200
20 252
5

. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

Balance on Goods and Services
Graph: Balance on Goods and Services



AUGUST KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES
  • The provisional trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,412m in August 2007, an increase of $44m on the revised deficit in July.
  • Goods and services credits rose $48m to $18,375m. Goods and services debits rose $92m to $19,787m.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,614m in August, an increase of $731m on the revised deficit in July.
  • Goods and services credits rose $321m (2%) to $18,638m. Non-rural and other goods rose $372m (3%) while rural goods fell $73m (4%). Services credits rose $24m (1%).
  • Goods and services debits rose $1,052m (5%) to $20,252m. Intermediate and other goods rose $459m (6%), capital goods rose $440m (14%) and consumption goods rose $139m (3%). Services debits rose $14m.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original terms, the August 2007 balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,946m, an increase of $1,073m on the revised deficit in July. Goods and services credits rose $435m (2%) and goods and services debits rose $1,508m (8%).
  • In the two months to August, exports of non-rural and other goods were up $1.1b (5%) while rural goods were down $0.7b (15%) on the corresponding period in 2006-07.


NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE Release Date
September 2007 1 November 2007
October 2007 3 December 2007
November 2007 10 January 2008
December 2007 4 February 2008
January 2008 6 March 2008
February 2008 7 April 2008



REVISIONS

Revisions were made to both the balance of payments and merchandise trade series to incorporate the latest available administrative and survey data. In original terms, these revisions have:
  • increased the deficit on goods and services for July 2007 by $33m
  • increased the deficit on good and services for 2006-07 by $8m.

From this issue, the European Union grouping used in merchandise trade country statistics will include Bulgaria and Romania, making a total of 27 countries. This has been applied to table 14 in this publication and will be reflected in the relevant time series spreadsheets in a future issue.

CHANGES TO FORTHCOMING ISSUES

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates


The seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of goods and services will be revised in the September 2007 issue of this publication as a result of the annual seasonal reanalysis. This reanalysis reviews the seasonal factors in more detail than is possible in the monthly processing cycle and assesses the appropriateness of any existing prior corrections.


Recently, the ABS has started to implement improved methods of producing seasonally adjusted estimates, focused on the application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling techniques. The revision properties of the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates can be improved by the use of ARIMA modelling. ARIMA modelling relies on the characteristics of the series being analysed to project future period data. The projected values are temporary, intermediate values, that are only used internally to improve the estimation of the seasonal factors. The projected data do not affect the original estimates and are discarded at the end of the seasonal adjustment process.


From the 2007 annual seasonal reanalysis, goods and services estimates will use concurrent seasonal adjustment with ARIMA modelling where applicable to reduce the level of revision to seasonally adjusted estimates. For more information on ARIMA modelling see Feature article : Use of ARIMA modelling to reduce revisions, October 2004 issue of Australian Economic Indicators (cat. no. 1350.0).



AUSTRALIAN EXPORTERS

The publication, Number and Characteristics of Australian Exporters, 2006-07 (cat. no. 5368.0.55.001) is scheduled for release on 13 November 2007.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Tom Jebbink on Canberra (02) 62525540.


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