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8731.0 - Building Approvals, Australia, Dec 2003  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 03/02/2004   
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December Key Figures

Dec 03
Nov 03 to Dec 03
Dec 02 to Dec 03
no.
% change
% change

Trend

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses
10,221
-0.8
12.5
Total dwelling units
15,022
-1.3
4.1

Seasonally Adjusted

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses
10,159
-0.5
11.4
Total dwelling units
14,578
-1.5
4.3

Dwelling units approved, Total number
Graph: Dwelling units approved, total number

Private sector houses approved, Total number
Graph: Private sector houses approved, total number


December Key Points

TREND ESTIMATES

  • The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved fell 1.3% in December 2003, and is now showing a fall over the last three months. The trend is now falling in all states and territories except South Australia and Western Australia. While those states are still showing growth, the rate of growth has slowed significantly.
  • The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.8% in December 2003, following falls in October and November.
  • The trend estimate for other dwellings approved fell 2.9% in December 2003, the third consecutive monthly fall.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwelling units approved fell 1.5%, to 14,578, in December 2003.
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.5%, to 10,159, in December 2003.
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for other dwellings approved fell 6.9%, to 4,158, in December 2003. This follows a 17.3% fall in November.
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building approved rose 18.7%, to $4,309.7 million, in December 2003, following a 21.6% fall in November. Residential building rose 1.5%, to $2,884.5 million, while non-residential building rose to $1,425.2 million, following the low value in November.

Notes


CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.


REVISIONS THIS MONTH

Revisions have been made to total dwelling units in this issue:

2002-03
2003-04
TOTAL

New South Wales
40
21
61
Victoria
27
64
91
Queensland
-
16
16
South Australia
1
-
1
Western Australia
-
7
7
Tasmania
-
-
-
Northern Territory
-
-
-
Australian Capital Territory
-
-
-
TOTAL
68
108
176


DATA NOTES

Estimates have been included in this issue for two councils unable to report all building work approved in their municipalities this month: Wingecarribee (New South Wales) and Playford (South Australia).


A special article on ‘Average Floor Area of New Dwellings’ in the years 1984-85 to 2002-03 is included in this issue.

Inquiries

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Andrea Woods on Adelaide (08) 8237 7350.



VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVED

NEW RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

The trend estimate of the value of new residential building has fallen for the last two months, following eight months of growth. The trend fell 0.7% in December 2003.

Graph: New residential building


ALTERATIONS AND ADDITIONS TO RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

The trend estimate of the value of alterations and additions to residential building fell 0.2% in December 2003, following twelve months of growth.

Graph: Alterations and additions to residential building


NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

The trend estimate of the value of non-residential building approved has fallen for the last five months, following four months of growth. The trend fell 5.1% in December 2003.

Graph: Non-residential building



DWELLINGS APPROVED

TOTAL DWELLING UNITS

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved is now showing a fall over the last three months, following seven months of growth. The trend fell 1.3% in December 2003.

Graph: Total dwelling units


PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES

The trend estimate for private sector houses approved has fallen for the last three months, following eight months of growth. The trend fell 0.8% in December 2003.

Graph: Private sector houses


OTHER DWELLINGS

The trend estimate for other dwellings approved has fallen for the last three months, following four months of growth. The trend fell 2.9% in December 2003.

Graph: Other dwellings



DWELLING UNITS APPROVED - STATES AND TERRITORIES

SUMMARY COMMENTS

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved fell 1.3% in December 2003. The trend fell in all states and territories except South Australia (+0.1%) and Western Australia (+1.2%).


The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.8% in December 2003. The trend fell in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, while rising in Queensland and Western Australia.

NSW
Vic.
Qld
SA
WA
Tas.
NT
ACT
Aust.

Original

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses (no.)
2,013
2,554
2,383
770
1,640
195
37
96
9,688
Total dwelling units (no.)
3,899
3,297
3,236
1,193
1,914
233
45
144
13,961
Percentage change from previous month
Private sector houses (%)
0.1
-11.8
-1.7
11.3
3.3
-20.1
76.2
-20.0
-3.1
Total dwelling units (%)
3.7
-7.1
-12.5
43.4
-4.5
-28.3
-10.0
15.2
-2.7

Seasonally Adjusted

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses (no.)
2,025
2,651
2,663
782
1,701
na
na
na
10,159
Total dwelling units (no.)
3,891
3,505
3,594
1,125
2,045
224
na
na
14,578
Percentage change from previous month
Private sector houses (%)
4.6
-13.3
2.2
12.0
9.7
na
na
na
-0.5
Total dwelling units (%)
7.8
-11.0
-6.3
25.5
0.4
-21.9
na
na
-1.5

Trend

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses (no.)
1,993
2,843
2,608
748
1,692
na
na
na
10,221
Total dwelling units (no.)
3,808
3,797
3,648
980
2,114
242
79
140
15,022
Percentage change from previous month
Private sector houses (%)
-0.7
-2.4
0.6
-0.6
1.3
na
na
na
-0.8
Total dwelling units (%)
-1.7
-1.7
-1.4
0.1
1.2
-0.3
-3.5
-4.1
-1.3

na not available
STATE TRENDS

NEW SOUTH WALES

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in New South Wales has fallen for the last four months, following four months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last five months.

Graph: New South Wales


VICTORIA

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in Victoria is now showing falls in the last five months, following six months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last four months.

Graph: Victoria


QUEENSLAND

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in Queensland has fallen for the last three months, following six months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has risen for the last eleven months.

Graph: Queensland


SOUTH AUSTRALIA

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in South Australia has risen for the last eight months, with the rate of growth now slowing significantly. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last three months.

Graph: South Australia


WESTERN AUSTRALIA

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in Western Australia has risen for the last eight months, with the rate of growth now slowing. The trend for private sector houses has risen for the last twelve months.

Graph: Western Australia

What If...? Revisions to Trend Estimates


Effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on trend estimates


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent months become available. The approximate effect of possible scenarios on trend estimates are presented below. Generally, the greater the volatility of the original series, the larger the size of the revisions to trend estimates. Analysis of the building approval original series has shown that they can be revised substantially. As a result, some months can elapse before turning points in the trend series are reliably identified.


The graphs and tables which follow present the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates: that the January seasonally adjusted estimate is higher than the December estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 13% for other dwelling units approved; and that the January seasonally adjusted estimate is lower than the December estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 13% for other dwelling units approved. These percentages represent the average absolute monthly percentage change for these series over the last ten years.


PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES APPROVED

Graph: Private sector houses approved

WHAT IF NEXT MONTH‘S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
TREND AS PUBLISHED
(1) rises by 4% on Dec 2003
(2) falls by 4% on Dec 2003
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change

2003
August
10,356
1.1
10,362
1.1
10,387
1.2
September
10,369
0.1
10,371
0.1
10,384
-
October
10,341
-0.3
10,342
-0.3
10,309
-0.7
November
10,301
-0.4
10,325
-0.2
10,216
-0.9
December
10,221
-0.8
10,315
-0.1
10,110
-1.0
2004
January
-
-
10,343
0.3
10,035
-0.7

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
OTHER DWELLINGS
Graph: Other dwellings

WHAT IF NEXT MONTH‘S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
TREND AS PUBLISHED
(1) rises by 13% on Dec 2003
(2) falls by 13% on Dec 2003
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change

2003
August
4,821
2.4
4,819
2.5
4,856
2.9
September
4,887
1.4
4,890
1.5
4,908
1.1
October
4,861
-0.5
4,874
-0.3
4,826
-1.7
November
4,766
-2.0
4,781
-1.9
4,621
-4.2
December
4,628
-2.9
4,667
-2.4
4,365
-5.5
2004
January
-
-
4,520
-3.1
4,065
-6.9

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

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