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8731.0 - Building Approvals, Australia, Feb 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 30/03/2004   
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February Key Figures

Feb 04
Jan 04 to Feb 04
Feb 03 to Feb 04
no.
% change
% change

Trend

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses
9,559
-1.9
5.8
Total dwelling units
14,301
-1.5
2.1

Seasonally Adjusted

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses
9,301
-3.1
0.8
Total dwelling units
14,592
3.2
5.5

Dwelling units approved, Total number
Graph: Dwelling Units Approved

Private sector houses approved, Total number
Graph: Private Sector Houses Approved

February Key Points

TREND ESTIMATES

  • The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved fell 1.5% in February 2004, the fifth consecutive monthly fall.
  • The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 1.9% in February 2004. The trend has now fallen for five consecutive months, and is now falling in all states and territories.
  • The trend estimate for other dwellings approved fell 0.7% in February 2004. This is the fifth consecutive monthly fall.
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwelling units approved rose 3.2%, to 14,592, in February 2004.
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector houses approved fell 3.1%, to 9,301, in February 2004. This is the fifth consecutive monthly fall.
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for other dwellings approved rose 17.1%, to 5,164, in February 2004. This was driven by large rises in New South Wales and Western Australia, which offset a fall in Victoria.
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building approved fell 8.3%, to $4,029.4 million in February 2004. Residential building rose 3.4%, to $2,972.4 million, with a 4.1% rise in new residential and a 1.3% fall in alterations and additions. The value of non-residential building fell 30.4%, to $1,057.0 million.


Notes


CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.

REVISIONS THIS MONTH

Revisions have been made to total dwelling units in this issue:
2002-03
2003-04
TOTAL

New South Wales
25
248
273
Victoria
62
46
108
Queensland
7
214
221
South Australia
-1
-
-1
Western Australia
-
-23
-23
Tasmania
-
-
-
Northern Territory
-
-
-
Australian Capital Territory
-
-
-
TOTAL
93
485
578

DATA NOTES

An estimate has been included in this issue for one council unable to report all building work approved in its municipality this month (Lake Macquarie in New South Wales).

Two new articles The Construction Industry in Western Australia and Focus on the New South Wales Construction Industry are available from the ABS website.


Inquiries

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Andrea Woods on Adelaide (08) 8237 7350.



VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVED

NEW RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

The trend estimate of the value of new residential building has been relatively flat over the last six months, and rose marginally (0.4%) in February 2004.

Graph: New Residential Building


ALTERATIONS AND ADDITIONS TO RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

The trend estimate of the value of alterations and additions to residential building has fallen for the last five months, following ten months of growth. The trend fell 1.8% in February 2004.

Graph: Alterations and Additions to Residential Building


NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

The trend estimate of the value of non-residential building has fallen for the last six months. The trend fell 3.2% in February 2004.

Graph: Non-residential Building



DWELLINGS APPROVED

TOTAL DWELLING UNITS

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved has fallen for the last five months, following seven months of growth. The trend fell 1.5% in February 2004.

Graph: Total Dwelling Units


PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES

The trend estimate for private sector houses approved has fallen for the last five months, following eight months of growth. The trend fell 1.9% in February 2004.

Graph: Private Sector Houses


OTHER DWELLINGS

The trend estimate for other dwellings approved has fallen for the last five months. The trend fell 0.7% in February 2004.

Graph: Other Dwellings



DWELLING UNITS APPROVED-STATES AND TERRITORIES

SUMMARY COMMENTS

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved fell 1.5% in February 2004. The trend fell in all states and territories except Tasmania (+0.2%) and the Australian Capital Territory (+3.6%).

The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 1.9% in February 2004. The trend fell in all states.
NSW
Vic.
Qld
SA
WA
Tas.
NT
ACT
Aust.

Original

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses (no.)
1,809
2,628
2,271
672
1,437
186
21
125
9,149
Total dwelling units (no.)
3,871
3,384
3,147
826
2,005
201
82
216
13,732
Percentage change from previous month
Private sector houses (%)
29.7
19.0
8.1
41.8
11.5
5.7
-
83.8
18.3
Total dwelling units (%)
42.8
-7.1
7.9
19.4
29.3
1.5
13.9
89.5
15.4

Seasonally Adjusted

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses (no.)
1,924
2,531
2,271
671
1,582
na
na
na
9,301
Total dwelling units (no.)
4,269
3,442
3,382
883
2,116
229
na
na
14,592
Percentage change from previous month
Private sector houses (%)
16.1
-12.1
-12.4
10.3
2.9
na
na
na
-3.1
Total dwelling units (%)
31.1
-16.2
-4.9
-0.9
16.2
-1.2
na
na
3.2

Trend

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses (no.)
1,825
2,683
2,470
672
1,589
na
na
na
9,559
Total dwelling units (no.)
3,713
3,711
3,484
897
2,012
230
93
164
14,301
Percentage change from previous month
Private sector houses (%)
-2.1
-2.0
-1.5
-2.6
-1.3
na
na
na
-1.9
Total dwelling units (%)
-0.1
-1.8
-1.3
-1.8
-0.6
0.2
-1.9
3.6
-1.5

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
na not available
DWELLING UNITS APPROVED-STATE TRENDS

NEW SOUTH WALES

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in New South Wales has fallen for the last six months, following four months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last six months.

Graph: NSW - Dwelling Units Approved


VICTORIA

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in Victoria has fallen for the last six months, following seven months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last six months.

Graph: VIC - Dwelling Units Approved


QUEENSLAND

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in Queensland has fallen for the last five months, following six months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the for the last four months.

Graph: QLD - Dwelling Units Approved


SOUTH AUSTRALIA

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in South Australia has fallen for the last five months, following five months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last six months.

Graph: SA - Dwelling Units Approved


WESTERN AUSTRALIA

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in Western Australia has fallen for the last three months, following six months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last three months.

Graph: WA - Dwelling Units Approved
What If...? Revisions to Trend Estimates


Effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on trend estimates


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent months become available. The approximate effect of possible scenarios on trend estimates are presented below. Generally, the greater the volatility of the original series, the larger the size of the revisions to trend estimates. Analysis of the building approval original series has shown that they can be revised substantially. As a result, some months can elapse before turning points in the trend series are reliably identified.


The graphs and tables which follow present the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates: that the March seasonally adjusted estimate is higher than the February estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 13% for other dwelling units approved; and that the March seasonally adjusted estimate is lower than the February estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 13% for other dwelling units approved. These percentages represent the average absolute monthly percentage change for these series over the last ten years.


PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES APPROVED

Graph: Private Sector Houses Approved

WHAT IF NEXT MONTH‘S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
TREND AS PUBLISHED
(1) rises by 4% on Feb 2004
(2) falls by 4% on Feb 2004
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change

2003
October
10,274
-1.1
10,283
-1.1
10,306
-1.0
November
10,109
-1.6
10,111
-1.7
10,122
-1.8
December
9,927
-1.8
9,931
-1.8
9,901
-2.2
2004
January
9,742
-1.9
9,752
-1.8
9,652
-2.5
February
9,559
-1.9
9,590
-1.7
9,403
-2.6
March
-
-
9,444
-1.5
9,162
-2.6

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
OTHER DWELLINGS

Graph: Other Dwellings Approved

WHAT IF NEXT MONTH‘S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
TREND AS PUBLISHED
(1) rises by 13% on Feb 2004
(2) falls by 13% on Feb 2004
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change

2003
October
4,964
-0.9
4,946
-1.0
4,991
-0.6
November
4,834
-2.6
4,838
-2.2
4,861
-2.6
December
4,702
-2.7
4,771
-1.4
4,711
-3.1
2004
January
4,610
-2.0
4,812
0.9
4,613
-2.1
February
4,579
-0.7
4,944
2.7
4,569
-1.0
March
-
-
5,073
2.6
4,508
-1.3

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

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