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5368.0 - International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, Nov 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 11/01/2005   
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NOVEMBER KEY FIGURES

September 2004
October 2004
November 2004
Oct 04 to Nov 04
$m
$m
$m
% change

Trend

Balance on goods & services
-2,254
-2,364
-2,464
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
13,053
13,000
12,943
-
Debits (imports of goods & services)
15,307
15,364
15,407
-

Seasonally Adjusted

Balance on goods & services
-2,110
-2,374
-2,661
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
13,159
12,925
12,875
-
Debits (imports of goods & services)
15,269
15,299
15,536
2

. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

Balance on goods and services
Graph: Balance on goods and services



NOVEMBER KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES
  • The provisional trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,464m in November 2004, an increase of $100m on the deficit in October.
  • Goods and services credits fell $57m to $12,943m. Rural goods fell $79m (4%), while non-rural and other goods rose $43m (1%). Services credits fell $21m (1%).
  • Goods and services debits rose $43m to $15,407m. Intermediate and other goods rose $54m (1%), while capital goods fell $15m (1%) and consumption goods fell $8m. Services debits rose $12m.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,661m in November, an increase of $287m on the deficit in October.
  • Goods and services credits fell $50m to $12,875m. Rural goods fell $41m (2%) and non-rural and other goods fell $11m. Services credits rose $2m.
  • Goods and services debits rose $237m (2%) to $15,536m. Intermediate and other goods rose $299m (5%) and consumption goods rose $34m (1%), while capital goods fell $139m (5%). Services debits rose $43m (1%).


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original terms, the November balance on goods and services was a deficit of $3,487m, an increase of $832m on the deficit in October. Goods and services credits fell $623m (5%), while goods and services debits rose $209m (1%).
  • In the five months to November, exports of non-rural and other goods were up $5.1b (14%) and rural goods were up $2.3b (26%) on the corresponding period in 2003-04.


NOTES



REVISIONS

Revisions were made to incorporate the latest available data relating to merchandise trade and the quarterly Survey of International Trade in Services. In original terms, these revisions have:
  • increased the deficit on goods and services for the four months to October 2004 by $341m
  • increased the deficit on goods and services for 2003-04 by $72m.


SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT

As part of ongoing improvements to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) seasonal adjustment methodology, the ABS has introduced an improved method for removing trading day effects from seasonally adjusted estimates. Corrections for trading day effects are now applied as prior corrections to the original estimates, rather than being applied within the seasonal adjustment process. This is now consistent with the treatment of other types of corrections such as those for extremes, changes in level, changes in seasonal pattern, Easter and other effects. This change in methodology has resulted in revisions to seasonally adjusted and trend estimates.



SEASONAL FACTORS

The seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of the current account have been revised as a result of the concurrent seasonal analysis. Revised historical and new concurrent seasonal factors are available in the electronic version of this publication (see 5368.0, table 20, for monthly seasonal factors).



FEATURE ARTICLE

A feature article on Australia's Importers, 2003-04 has been released on this web site concurrently with the release of this publication. The article is the sixth in a series analysing the characteristics and international trading activities of Australia's exporters and importers, based on the Australian Business Number (ABN).


INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Artur Andrysiak on Canberra (02) 62526792.



ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in November 2004 was a deficit of $2,464m, an increase of $100m on the deficit in October.


In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in November 2004 was a deficit of $2,661m, an increase of $287m on the deficit in October.



EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $57m in November to $12,943m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $50m in November to $12,875m. Rural goods fell $41m (2%) and non-rural and other goods fell $11m, while services credits rose $2m.


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS
Graph: Goods Credits



Rural goods

The trend estimate of rural goods exports fell $79m (4%) to $2,140m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $41m (2%) to $2,108m.


In original terms, exports of rural goods fell $111m (5%) to $2,138m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • other rural, down $69m (8%), compared with an average October to November fall of 5% over the previous three years
  • wool and sheepskins, down $22m (8%), compared with an average October to November fall of 5% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were:
  • meat and meat preparations, down $21m (3%), compared with an average October to November fall of 8% over the previous three years
  • cereal grains and cereal preparations, up marginally, in contrast to an average October to November fall of 6% over the previous three years.

Non-rural and other goods

The trend estimate of non-rural and other goods exports rose $43m (1%) to $8,030m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural and other goods fell $11m to $8,008m.


In original terms, exports of non-rural and other goods fell $437m (5%) to $8,036m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • other manufactures, down $55m (4%), compared with an average October to November fall of less than 1% over the previous three years
  • coal, coke and briquettes, down $128m (10%), compared with an average October to November fall of 6% over the previous three years
  • transport equipment, down $100m (22%), compared with an average October to November fall of 12% over the previous three years
  • other non-rural, down $161m (16%), compared with an average October to November fall of 13% over the previous three years.

Mostly offsetting these effects were:
  • metal ores and minerals, down $59m (4%), compared with an average October to November fall of 12% over the previous three years
  • other goods, up marginally, in contrast to an average October to November fall of 8% over the previous three years
  • machinery, up $19m (3%), in contrast to an average October to November fall of less than 1% over the previous three years.

Exports of services
SERVICES CREDITS
Graph: Services Credits



In trend terms, services credits fell $21m (1%) to $2,773m.


Seasonally adjusted, services credits rose $2m to $2,759m.


This rise was driven by travel services, up $15m (1%).


Partly offsetting these effects were:

  • other services, down $10m (1%)
  • freight services, down $2m (3%).

Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services credits rose $36m (2%) to $1,706m.



IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $43m in November to $15,407m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $237m (2%) to $15,536m. Intermediate and other goods rose $299m (5%), services debits rose $43m (1%) and consumption goods rose $34m (1%), while capital goods fell $139m (5%).


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS
Graph: GOODS DEBITS



Consumption goods

The trend estimate of imports of consumption goods fell $8m to $3,820m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $34m (1%) to $3,842m.


In original terms, imports of consumption goods rose $74m (2%) to $4,279m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • consumption goods n.e.s., up $29m (2%), in contrast to an average October to November fall of 12% over the previous three years
  • non-industrial transport equipment, up $25m (2%), in contrast to an average October to November fall of 4% over the previous three years
  • household electrical items, up $38m (9%), in contrast to an average October to November fall of 6% over the previous three years
  • toys, books and leisure goods, down $16m (4%), compared with an average October to November fall of 18% over the previous three years.

Offsetting these effects by about 3 percentage points was an adjustment made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account different trading day patterns in October and November.


Capital goods

The trend estimate of imports of capital goods fell $15m (1%) to $2,973m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $139m (5%) to $2,938m.


In original terms, imports of capital goods rose $44m (1%) to $3,130m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • civil aircraft, down $226m (67%), in contrast to an average October to November rise of 30% over the previous three years.
  • an adjustment made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account different trading day patterns in October and November, which contributed about 7 percentage points towards the overall fall.

Partly offsetting these effects were:
  • machinery and industrial equipment, up $122m (11%), in contrast to an average October to November fall of 8% over the previous three years
  • automatic data processing equipment, up $33m (8%), in contrast to an average October to November fall of 11% over the previous three years
  • industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $48m (12%), in contrast to an average October to November fall of 6% over the previous three years
  • capital goods n.e.s., up $34m (8%), in contrast to an average October to November fall of 8% over the previous three years.

Intermediate and Other Goods

The trend estimate of imports of intermediate and other goods rose $54m (1%) to $5,610m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, intermediate and other goods imports rose $299m (5%) to $5,738m.


In original terms, imports of intermediate and other goods rose $277m (5%) to $5,899m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • fuels and lubricants, up $71m (6%), in contrast to an average October to November fall of 20% over the previous three years
  • other parts for capital goods, up $99m (13%), in contrast to an average October to November fall of 8% over the previous three years
  • parts for transport equipment, up $43m (7%), in contrast to an average October to November fall of 13% over the previous three years
  • processed industrial supplies n.e.s., up $56m (5%), in contrast to an average October to November fall of 3% over the previous three years
  • other goods, up marginally, in contrast to an average October to November fall of 20% over the previous three years.

Offsetting these effects by about 3 percentage points was an adjustment made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account different trading day patterns in October and November.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS
Graph: SERVICES DEBITS



In trend terms, services debits rose $12m to $3,004m.


Seasonally adjusted, services debits rose $43m (1%) to $3,018m.


Movements in the seasonally adjusted components contributing to this rise were:

  • freight services, up $37m (6%)
  • travel services, up $18m (2%).

Partly offsetting these effects were other services, down $11m (1%).


Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services debits fell $2m to $1,533m.


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