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8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Jul 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 03/09/2004   
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JULY KEY FIGURES

Jul 04
Jun 04 to Jul 04
$m
% change

Turnover at current prices
Trend estimates
16,600.9
0.5
Seasonally adjusted estimates
16,535.7
-1.0

Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - % change

Graph: Monthly Turnover, Trend estimate - % change



JULY KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES
  • The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.5% in July 2004. This follows increases of 0.6% in June and May.
  • The trend estimate increased in all states and territories, except Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory. The largest increases in July 2004 were in the Northern Territory (+1.1%) and Western Australia (+1.0%).
  • Over the three months to July 2004 the trend estimate increased by $264m. Food retailing (+$108m), Department stores (+$41m) and Clothing and soft good retailing (+$33m) had the largest increases.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series fell by 1% (-$162m) in July 2004. This followed strong growth of 2.0% (revised) in June 2004.
  • Tasmania (+$4m or +1.1%) recorded strong growth and Western Australia (+$2m or +0.1%) recorded weak growth. All other states and territories fell with the two territories showing the largest falls after recording the largest increases in June 2004.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original terms, Australian turnover rose by 2.9% in July 2004 compared with June 2004. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) rose by 3.0%, while 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) rose by 2.9%.
  • Australian turnover increased by 7.3% in July 2004 compared with July 2003. Chains and other large retailers increased by 8.9%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 5.3%.


NOTES

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

As advised in the Information Paper: Changes to the Retail Trade Series (cat. no. 8501.0.55.002) released on the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) web site on 2 August 2004, this publication presents the first release of estimates from the Retail Business survey compiled using a new sample design and an improved estimation method. The level estimate for the total Retail and Hospitality/Services series for June 2004 on the new basis is 2.3% higher than the old basis. The shift in level resulting from these changes has been smoothed into the series back to April 1982 to make the time series of estimates as continuous as possible. The extent of the shift in level varies in individual Retail Trade series.



SEASONAL REANALYSIS

The results of the annual seasonal reanalysis are normally introduced with this issue. However, the annual reanalysis is being delayed one month so that the shift in the level of the historical series can be taken into account.



CHAIN VOLUME MEASURES

Chain Volume measures to June quarter 2004 were released in the previous issue. Chain Volume measures are being compiled for estimates on the new basis and revised estimates are expected to be released with the August 2004 issue of this publication. Chain Volume measures to September quarter 2004 will be released as normal in the September issue of this publication.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.



SUMMARY COMMENTARY


INDUSTRY TRENDS


MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

The Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services trend estimate has had moderate growth for the last five months. Over this period, Department stores and Clothing and soft good retailing have had strong growth while Food retailing and Recreational good retailing have had moderate growth. The other industries have had weak growth over this period.

Graph: Industry trends_Total retail


FOOD RETAILING

Moderate trend growth has continued with South Australia, Western Australia and the Northern Territory having the strongest rates of growth in recent months. The rate of growth for Victoria has decreased from 1.1% in February 2004 to be in decline in July 2004. New South Wales and Queensland have had moderate growth in each month of 2004.

Graph: Industry trends_Food retailing


DEPARTMENT STORES

There has been strong trend growth for the last five months. Over this period, New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia have had strong trend growth and South Australia has had moderate growth. Over the last three months the Australian Capital Territory has been flat or in decline.

Graph: Industry trends_Department stores


CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

There has been strong growth in the trend estimate over the last four months. In each of these months, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and the Northern Territory recorded strong trend growth while Western Australia has been in decline. The Australian Capital Territory has been flat or in decline for 13 months.

Graph: Industry trends_Clothing and soft good retailing


HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

There has been weak trend growth since December 2003. In the last five months, Western Australia and the Northern Territory have had strong growth while Victoria and South Australia have been in decline. After being in decline for five months, New South Wales has had strong growth in the last three months.

Graph: Industry trends_Household good retailing


RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

Trend growth has been moderate for four months. Over this period, strong growth in Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory and weak growth in New South Wales has been offset by declines in Victoria, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory.

Graph: Industry trends_Recreational good retailing


OTHER RETAILING

Trend growth has increased over the last four months following four months of being in decline. Queensland and Western Australia have had strong trend growth in the last four months while South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory were in decline. New South Wales and Victoria have had weak growth for the last two months after being in decline for seven and four months, respectively.

Graph: Industry trends_Other retailing


TOTAL RETAIL (excluding Hospitality and Services)

Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has had moderate growth for the last six months. The rate of trend growth has been similar to that of Total industries (including Hospitality and services).

Graph: Industry trends_Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services)


HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

After strong trend growth from June to November 2003, growth has been weak in 2004. Victoria and Queensland have been in decline since March 2004 while New South Wales, Tasmania and the Northern Territory have had strong growth over this period.

Graph: Industry trends_Hospitality and services



STATE TRENDS


MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

There has been moderate trend growth for the last five months. Over this period, Department stores and Hospitality and services have had strong growth although their growth is moderating. Food, Clothing and soft good and Household good retailing have had moderate trend growth over this period. Other retailing has had weak growth for the last two months after seven months of being in decline.

Graph: State trends_New South Wales


VICTORIA

Trend growth has been decreasing since November 2003 and the trend was in decline in July 2004. Department stores and Clothing and soft good retailing have had strong growth in each of the last four months and Other retailing has had weak growth in the last two months after a period of being in decline. All other industries were in decline in July 2004.

Graph: State trends_Victoria


QUEENSLAND

Trend growth was moderate in July 2004 after slightly stronger growth in June and May. Over the last five months, all industries except Food retailing (moderate) and Hospitality and services (in decline) have had strong trend growth. The rate of growth in Household good retailing has been slowing over this period.

Graph: State trends_Queensland


SOUTH AUSTRALIA

In July 2004, the trend growth remained moderate for the eighth consecutive month. Over the last five months, there was strong growth in Recreational good retailing, Clothing and soft good retailing and Food retailing while Household good retailing and Other retailing were in decline. Hospitality and services was in decline in July 2004.

Graph: State trends_South Australia


WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Trend growth has been strong over the last five months. Over this period, Clothing and soft good retailing and Recreational good retailing were in decline and Hospitality and services had moderate growth. All other industries had strong growth over this period.

Graph: State trends_Western Australia


TASMANIA

The trend growth has been strong for the last three months. Over this period, Hospitality and services and Recreational good retailing have had strong trend growth and Food retailing and Household good retailing have had moderate growth. Clothing and soft good retailing had strong growth in July 2004 after ten months of being flat or having moderate trend growth.

Graph: State trends_Tasmania

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