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JULY KEY FIGURES
JULY KEY POINTS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE
As advised in the Information Paper: Changes to the Retail Trade Series (cat. no. 8501.0.55.002) released on the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) web site on 2 August 2004, this publication presents the first release of estimates from the Retail Business survey compiled using a new sample design and an improved estimation method. The level estimate for the total Retail and Hospitality/Services series for June 2004 on the new basis is 2.3% higher than the old basis. The shift in level resulting from these changes has been smoothed into the series back to April 1982 to make the time series of estimates as continuous as possible. The extent of the shift in level varies in individual Retail Trade series.
Moderate trend growth has continued with South Australia, Western Australia and the Northern Territory having the strongest rates of growth in recent months. The rate of growth for Victoria has decreased from 1.1% in February 2004 to be in decline in July 2004. New South Wales and Queensland have had moderate growth in each month of 2004.
There has been strong trend growth for the last five months. Over this period, New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia have had strong trend growth and South Australia has had moderate growth. Over the last three months the Australian Capital Territory has been flat or in decline.
CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING
There has been strong growth in the trend estimate over the last four months. In each of these months, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and the Northern Territory recorded strong trend growth while Western Australia has been in decline. The Australian Capital Territory has been flat or in decline for 13 months.
HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING
There has been weak trend growth since December 2003. In the last five months, Western Australia and the Northern Territory have had strong growth while Victoria and South Australia have been in decline. After being in decline for five months, New South Wales has had strong growth in the last three months.
RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING
Trend growth has been moderate for four months. Over this period, strong growth in Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory and weak growth in New South Wales has been offset by declines in Victoria, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory.
Trend growth has increased over the last four months following four months of being in decline. Queensland and Western Australia have had strong trend growth in the last four months while South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory were in decline. New South Wales and Victoria have had weak growth for the last two months after being in decline for seven and four months, respectively.
TOTAL RETAIL (excluding Hospitality and Services)
Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has had moderate growth for the last six months. The rate of trend growth has been similar to that of Total industries (including Hospitality and services).
HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES
After strong trend growth from June to November 2003, growth has been weak in 2004. Victoria and Queensland have been in decline since March 2004 while New South Wales, Tasmania and the Northern Territory have had strong growth over this period.
MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES
NEW SOUTH WALES
There has been moderate trend growth for the last five months. Over this period, Department stores and Hospitality and services have had strong growth although their growth is moderating. Food, Clothing and soft good and Household good retailing have had moderate trend growth over this period. Other retailing has had weak growth for the last two months after seven months of being in decline.
Trend growth has been decreasing since November 2003 and the trend was in decline in July 2004. Department stores and Clothing and soft good retailing have had strong growth in each of the last four months and Other retailing has had weak growth in the last two months after a period of being in decline. All other industries were in decline in July 2004.
Trend growth was moderate in July 2004 after slightly stronger growth in June and May. Over the last five months, all industries except Food retailing (moderate) and Hospitality and services (in decline) have had strong trend growth. The rate of growth in Household good retailing has been slowing over this period.
In July 2004, the trend growth remained moderate for the eighth consecutive month. Over the last five months, there was strong growth in Recreational good retailing, Clothing and soft good retailing and Food retailing while Household good retailing and Other retailing were in decline. Hospitality and services was in decline in July 2004.
Trend growth has been strong over the last five months. Over this period, Clothing and soft good retailing and Recreational good retailing were in decline and Hospitality and services had moderate growth. All other industries had strong growth over this period.
The trend growth has been strong for the last three months. Over this period, Hospitality and services and Recreational good retailing have had strong trend growth and Food retailing and Household good retailing have had moderate growth. Clothing and soft good retailing had strong growth in July 2004 after ten months of being flat or having moderate trend growth.
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