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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, May 2005  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 06/07/2005   
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MAY KEY FIGURES

May '05
Apr '05 to May '05
May '04 to May '05
'000
% change
% change

Short-term visitor arrivals
Trend
455.5
-0.7
5.8
Seasonally adjusted
444.2
-3.0
. .
Original
353.9
. .
. .
Short-term resident departures
Trend
385.6
-0.1
8.7
Seasonally adjusted
388.7
0.8
. .
Original
395.8
. .
. .

. . not applicable

Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Visitor arrivals Short-term

Resident departures, Short-term
Graph: Resident departures Short-term



MAY KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES

  • The trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during May 2005 (455,500 movements) decreased by 0.7% compared with April 2005. This followed monthly decreases of 0.1% for March 2005 and 0.4% for April 2005.
  • Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 1.2% lower than when the series last peaked in February 2005 (461,100 movements) and 5.8% higher than in May 2004.
  • During May 2005, short-term resident departures (385,600 movements) decreased by 0.1% when compared with April 2005. This followed monthly decreases of 0.1% for March 2005 and a minimal decrease in April 2005.
  • Currently, short-term resident departures are 0.4% lower than when the series last peaked in January 2005 (387,000 movements) and 8.7% higher than in May 2004.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for short-term visitor arrivals during May 2005 (444,200 movements) decreased by 3.0% compared with April 2005. Short-term visitor arrivals increased by 1.4% for March and decreased by 2.1% for April 2005.
  • Short-term resident departures for May 2005 (388,700 movements) increased by 0.8% compared with April 2005 and followed an increase of 2.7% for March and a decrease of 0.3% for April 2005.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original movement terms, there were 353,900 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia and 395,800 short-term resident departures from Australia during May 2005.


NOTES


EARLY ESTIMATES

Early estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for June 2005 will be available on the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) web site on 14 July 2005. These estimates can be accessed by going to the AusStats web page <http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats> and selecting Publications & Data and then Main Features. Select 34 Migration and then select Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0.55.001).



DATA NOTES

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


Calculations of percentage and numeric change are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 12 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.



FORTHCOMING CHANGES

From 4 August 2005 time series spreadsheets released in association with this product will be presented in Excel format. Please refer to the Information Paper: Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, New Format Time Series Spreadsheets (cat. no. 3401.0.55.003) for further detail, including 'mock-up' tables in the new format.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.



MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in May 2005 (455,500 movements) have increased by 5.8% when compared with May 2004. Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 1.2% lower than when the series last peaked in February 2005 (461,100 movements). Prior to that month, short-term visitor arrivals had increased each month from February 2004 (425,100 movements).


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during May 2005. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the trend percentage change compared with April 2005 and May 2004.

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Major Source Countries - May 2005

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Apr 05 to May 05
May 04 to May 05
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
96.8
96.7
82.6
1.3
13.1
Japan
51.7
48.3
43.1
-4.6
-8.0
United States of America
37.9
37.0
30.3
-0.2
3.5
United Kingdom
59.3
55.8
29.0
-1.0
2.9
Singapore
23.2
22.6
22.3
0.2
14.7
Malaysia
14.0
14.6
19.0
-0.7
-3.3
Korea
22.2
21.8
18.1
2.1
25.9
China
20.1
(a)np
15.9
-3.9
1.6
Hong Kong
13.1
13.3
9.2
0.9
17.0
Taiwan
9.3
8.0
8.3
-1.1
12.2

(a) Seasonally adjusted data for short-term visitor arrivals from China is of an unpublishable standard.



SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures have increased by 8.7% between May 2004 and May 2005. Currently, short-term resident departures are 0.4% lower than when the series last peaked in January 2005 (387,000 movements). Prior to that month, short-term resident departures had increased each month from April 2003 (285,700 movements).


The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates), for short-term resident departures during May 2005. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the trend percentage change compared with April 2005 and May 2004.

Short-term Resident Departures, Major Destinations - May 2005

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Apr 05 to May 05
May 04 to May 05
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
69.1
70.0
51.6
-0.5
4.4
United Kingdom
32.4
33.2
49.2
1.0
3.3
United States of America
33.9
33.1
36.4
-0.3
6.4
Indonesia
30.4
29.2
26.1
-1.6
5.8
China
19.7
19.3
17.0
1.3
35.2
Fiji
16.4
16.3
14.1
-0.4
17.5
Hong Kong
15.0
15.3
13.1
0.6
28.4
Italy
7.2
8.2
13.0
2.2
-0.5
Singapore
14.2
14.1
12.9
-2.8
15.1
Canada
7.3
8.2
11.9
2.5
12.7



SHORT-TERM TRAVEL - MALAYSIA AND AUSTRALIA

Short-term visitor arrivals

According to trend estimates, in May 2005, the number of short-term visitor arrivals from Malaysia represented 3% (14,000 movements) of all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia. Over the past ten years the trend has fluctuated with the series rising from a low in June 1995 (8,000 movements) to a high in September 2003 (15,600 movements). The May 2005 trend estimate for arrivals from Malaysia decreased by 1% when compared with April 2005 and by 3% when compared with May 2004.

MALAYSIA, Short-term Visitor Arrivals - Trend Series
Graph: MALAYSIA, Short-term Visitor Arrivals—Trend Series



In original terms, 61% of the visitors from Malaysia in May 2005 stated holiday as the main reason for journey, compared with 52% of all short-term visitor arrivals. The median age of visitors from Malaysia was 36 years (40 years for all visitors) while the median intended duration of stay was 9 days (8 days for all visitors).


Short-term resident departures

Trend estimates show that the number of residents departing Australia short-term for Malaysia represented 4% (14,100 movements) of all short-term resident departures in May 2005. Over the past ten years there have been fluctuations in the series but from January 2002 the trend has been mainly upwards. The series was at its lowest point in October 1995 (7,100 movements) and at its highest point in April 2005 (14,300 movements). The May 2005 trend estimate for short-term resident departures to Malaysia decreased by 1% when compared with April 2005 and increased by 26% when compared with May 2004.

MALAYSIA, Short-term Resident Departures - Trend Series
Graph: MALAYSIA, Short-term Resident Departures—Trend Series



In original terms, 38% of Australian residents departing to Malaysia stated holiday as the main reason for journey, compared with 45% for all residents departing. The median age of residents departing to Malaysia was 48 years (46 years for all residents) and the median intended duration of stay was 13 days (18 days for all residents).



PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 9,940 permanent (settler) arrivals into Australia during May 2005, an increase of 2.6% when compared with May 2004 (9,690 movements). Settlers born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion (15%) followed by the United Kingdom (14%) and India (8%).


Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Therefore, care should be taken when using long-term movements data as it is known some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).


There were 4,790 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during May 2005, an increase of 3.0% when compared with May 2004 (4,650 movements).



STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates add to the understanding of Overseas Arrivals and Departures (OAD) statistics. Seasonally adjusted estimates allow users to analyse short-term movements including irregular impacts on the series, while trend estimates provide a better method to analyse and monitor the underlying direction of the short-term movement series. In most cases, the trend series is the best source of information on the long-term direction of these statistics.



SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Selected source countries

The graphs presented below illustrate the long-term increase in the trend series for arrivals from the United Kingdom and New Zealand and the significant impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) on arrivals from Japan earlier in 2003.

United Kingdom
Graph: United Kingdom
New Zealand
Graph: New Zealand
Japan
Graph: Japan




SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

Selected destinations

For residents departing to the United States of America the graph illustrates the effect that the terrorist attacks in that country on 11 September 2001 had on short-term departures of Australian residents to the United States of America. The graph for New Zealand illustrates that departures of Australian residents, which had been trending upwards since May 2003, appear to have stalled. For Indonesia the graph shows a return to expected resident departures levels after the influence of the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004.

United States of America
Graph: United States of America
New Zealand
Graph: New Zealand
Indonesia
Graph: Indonesia


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