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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jan 2006  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 07/03/2006   
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JANUARY KEY FIGURES

Jan '06
Dec '05 to Jan '06
Jan '05 to Jan '06
'000
% change
% change

Short-term visitor arrivals
Trend
454.7
-
-1.2
Seasonally adjusted
462.5
1.5
. .
Original
466.7
. .
. .
Short-term resident departures
Trend
397.6
0.4
3.4
Seasonally adjusted
391.7
-3.9
. .
Original
346.3
. .
. .

. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Visitor arrivals Short-term

Resident departures, Short-term
Graph: Resident departures Short-term



JANUARY KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES

  • Trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during January 2006 (454,700 movements) show little change compared with December 2005. This followed monthly decreases of 0.2% for November 2005 and 0.1% for December 2005.
  • Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 0.6% lower than when the series last peaked in September 2005 (457,300 movements) and 1.2% lower than in January 2005.
  • During January 2006, short-term resident departures (397,600 movements) increased by 0.4% compared with December 2005. This followed monthly increases of 0.3% each for November 2005 and December 2005.
  • Currently, short-term resident departures are 1.3% lower than when the series last peaked in September 2005 (402,700 movements) and 3.4% higher than in January 2005. These changes were affected by a break in the trend series (see Explanatory Note 22).


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • Seasonally adjusted estimates for short-term visitor arrivals during January 2006 (462,500 movements) increased by 1.5% compared with December 2005 and followed a monthly decrease of 3.9% for November 2005 and a monthly increase of 3.3% for December 2005.
  • Short-term resident departures for January 2006 (391,700 movements) decreased by 3.9% compared with December 2005 and followed monthly increases of 2.8% for November 2005 and 3.4% for December 2005.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original movement terms, there were 466,700 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia and 346,300 short-term resident departures from Australia during January 2006.


NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE Release Date
February 2006 5 April 2006
March 2006 9 May 2006
April 2006 1 June 2006
May 2006 6 July 2006
June 2006 7 August 2006
July 2006 4 September 2006



EARLY ESTIMATES

Early estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for February 2006 will be available on the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) web site on 16 March 2006. These estimates can be accessed by going to the ABS web site at <http://www.abs.gov.au>. Select All statistics - Access to all ABS products & statistics, then By Catalogue Number, then 3. Demography, then 34. Migration. Choose Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0.55.001).



DATA NOTES

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


The statistics in this publication have been rounded to the nearest 100 for short-term movements and to the nearest 10 for permanent and long-term movements. As a result, sums of the components may not add exactly to totals. Analysis featured in the Key Points and Main Features of this publication is based on unrounded data. Calculations made on rounded data may differ to those published.



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.



MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in January 2006 (454,700 movements) were 1.2% lower than in January 2005 and marginally lower than in December 2005. January 2006 was the fourth consecutive month in which this series declined. Short-term visitor arrivals are currently 0.6% lower than when the series last peaked in September 2005 (457,300 movements).


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during January 2006. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the percentage change in trend compared with December 2005 and January 2005.

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Major Source Countries - January 2006

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Dec 05 to Jan 06
Jan 05 to Jan 06
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
93.3
101.4
69.7
1.4
2.5
United Kingdom
57.1
57.5
67.6
-
-3.9
Japan
59.5
60.2
62.5
-
-2.4
United States of America
35.5
36.0
35.9
-0.2
-4.6
China
24.2
22.3
32.4
-0.2
3.0
Korea
19.1
19.0
28.0
-1.3
-4.2
Singapore
20.0
20.4
15.9
-2.6
-12.4
Hong Kong
13.1
12.5
14.5
-
3.5
Germany
12.3
12.8
13.6
0.1
2.8
Canada
8.5
8.7
12.7
0.7
-1.8

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)



SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia in January 2006 (397,600 movements) were 3.4% higher than in January 2005 and 0.4% higher than in December 2005. The series last peaked in September 2005 (402,700 movements) after consecutive monthly increases from April 2003. A trend break was introduced from October 2005 (see Explanatory Note 22).


The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during January 2006. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the percentage change in trend compared with December 2005 and January 2005.


In original terms, short-term resident departures to Indonesia were ranked 4th in September 2005 and are now no longer in the top ten destinations for residents departing.

Short-term Resident Departures, Major Destinations - January 2006

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Dec 05 to Jan 06
Jan 05 to Jan 06
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
70.6
72.0
72.5
0.5
0.6
United States of America
36.1
34.5
32.5
-0.7
9.2
United Kingdom
33.3
31.3
19.9
1.0
6.1
Thailand
22.7
22.8
19.4
5.5
42.2
China
18.7
19.1
17.1
-2.2
3.4
Fiji
17.3
17.7
16.5
1.6
5.4
Singapore
17.1
16.9
16.4
1.2
10.9
Hong Kong
15.1
15.7
15.8
-0.3
3.2
Malaysia
14.3
14.0
15.0
1.6
0.4
Viet Nam
9.0
9.1
13.3
-5.4
-6.6



SHORT-TERM TRAVEL - NEW ZEALAND

Short-term visitor arrivals

Trend estimates for January 2006 shows the number of short-term visitor arrivals from New Zealand represented 21% (93,300 movements) of all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia. While the series has shown fluctuations over the past ten years it experienced strong growth from February 2003 to April 2005 when the series peaked (93,700 movements). In January 2006 the trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals from New Zealand was 1% higher than in December 2005.

NEW ZEALAND, Short-term Visitor Arrivals
Graph: NEW ZEALAND, Short-term Visitor Arrivals



Short-term resident departures

Trend estimates for January 2006 show the number of short-term resident departures to New Zealand represented 18% (70,600 movements) of all short-term resident departures. Over the past ten years the trend has mainly been upwards, with the rate of growth slowing to a plateau from October 2004. The high point in the series was in January 2006 (the current month). In January 2006 the trend estimate for short-term resident departures to New Zealand was 1% higher than in December 2005.

NEW ZEALAND, Short-term Resident Departures
Graph: NEW ZEALAND, Short-term Resident Departures




PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 11,370 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during January 2006, an increase of 4.4% compared with January 2005 (10,890 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (20%), followed by people born in the United Kingdom (18%) and China (9%).


There were 9,300 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during January 2006, an increase of 20.6% compared with January 2005 (7,720 movements).


Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Therefore, care should be taken when using long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).



STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates add to the understanding of overseas arrivals and departures (OAD) statistics. Seasonally adjusted estimates allow users to analyse short-term movements including irregular impacts on the series, while trend estimates provide a better method to analyse and monitor the underlying direction of the short-term movement series. In most cases the trend series is the best source of information on the long-term direction of these statistics.



SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Selected source countries

The graph for the United Kingdom illustrates the long-term increase in the trend series for visitor arrivals. For New Zealand the graph shows, in the trend series, a possible recent plateau in growth following strong increases which commenced in early 2003. The graph for Japan shows the significant impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) on the seasonally adjusted arrivals series in mid-2003.

United Kingdom
Graph: United Kingdom
New Zealand
Graph: New Zealand
Japan
Graph: Japan




SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

Selected destinations

For residents departing to the United States of America the graph illustrates the effect of the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in that country on short-term departures of Australian residents to the United States of America. The graph for New Zealand illustrates that departures of Australian residents, which had been experiencing strong growth since May 2003, have plateaued over recent months. For Indonesia the graph shows the impact of the 12 October 2002 Bali bombing and the reduced level of travel experienced in the next twelve months. The effect of the 1 October 2005 Bali bombing is also evident and a new break in the trend series has been introduced.

United States of America
Graph: United States of America
New Zealand
Graph: New Zealand
Indonesia
Graph: Indonesia


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