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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jun 2007  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 03/08/2007   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during June 2007 (477,200 movements) changed little compared with May 2007 (478,200 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 5.2% higher than in June 2006.


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during June 2007. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the percentage change in trend compared with May 2007 and June 2006.

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Major Source Countries - June 2007

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
May 07 to Jun 07
Jun 06 to Jun 07
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
101.4
102.9
107.7
1.8
15.0
United States of America
38.5
38.5
43.1
-0.1
0.9
Japan
44.9
48.6
38.1
-1.8
-14.2
United Kingdom
57.7
55.8
27.1
-1.8
-1.2
Singapore
22.0
20.9
26.3
-1.1
5.0
China
29.6
28.3
19.4
-1.7
13.3
Korea
22.1
21.7
18.5
-0.6
2.9
Hong Kong
13.0
13.6
11.4
1.2
-0.3
Malaysia
13.7
14.3
10.4
-0.5
13.6
Indonesia
7.6
7.9
7.9
3.0
13.8



SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures (449,800 movements) increased by 0.9% compared with May 2007 (445,700 movements). Short-term resident departures are currently 6.0% higher than in December 2006, when a trend break was introduced.


The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during June 2007. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the percentage change in trend compared with May 2007 and June 2006.

Short-term Resident Departures, Major Destinations - June 2007

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
May 07 to Jun 07
Jun 06 to Jun 07
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
74.9
76.4
59.3
0.8
5.7
United Kingdom
34.8
38.7
57.6
2.2
0.3
United States of America
38.0
36.2
43.0
-0.9
2.3
Thailand
32.6
32.5
32.1
0.8
36.0
Indonesia(a)
23.0
22.9
28.3
0.5
46.9
China
24.8
22.8
21.1
2.1
15.7
Singapore
18.6
18.6
20.3
1.8
7.9
Fiji
16.0
16.8
17.9
3.1
-5.5
Malaysia
14.7
14.8
16.0
-0.9
8.4
Hong Kong
17.7
16.7
15.9
1.9
7.8

(a) Break in trend series from December 2006.



PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 13,670 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during June 2007, an increase of 27.3% compared with June 2006 (10,740 movements). People born in the United Kingdom and New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (each 15%), followed by people born in China (11%) and India (10%).


There were 4,900 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during June 2007, an increase of 7.5% compared with June 2006 (4,560 movements).


Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).



INTERNATIONAL MOVEMENTS - 1996-97 TO 2006-07

In the year ended June 2007 there were a record 22.3 million crossings of Australia's international borders by travellers (original series). This represented 1,071 crossings per 1,000 Australian population. The majority of movements were short-term (96%). Short-term movements have a duration of stay in Australia or absence from Australia of less than one year. Ten years ago (1996-97) there were 14.5 million crossings by travellers, representing 788 per 1,000 Australian population.


Just over half of the total movements in 2006-07 were arrivals to Australia (11.3 million). They were comprised of 5.1 million Australian residents returning after a short-term absence from Australia, 5.6 million visitors arriving for a short-term stay and 513,500 permanent and long-term arrivals.


Just under half of the total movements in 2006-07 were departures from Australia (11.1 million). They were comprised of 5.1 million Australian residents departing short-term, 5.7 million visitors departing Australia after a short-term stay and 275,200 permanent and long-term departures.


A traveller may cross Australia's borders many times in a year and each movement is counted in these statistics. See the 3rd paragraph of the PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS section above.



Short-term visitor arrivals

Trend estimates provide the best method to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term visitor arrivals series. Over the ten year period ending June 2007 trend estimates, while showing monthly fluctuations, have recorded strong long-term growth. The high point during this period was in April 2007 (478,700 movements) and the low point was in March 1998 (341,400 movements).


Irregular impacts on the short-term visitor arrivals series are demonstrated by the seasonally adjusted series. The terrorist attacks in the United States of America on 11 September 2001 and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in early to mid-2003 both led to decreases in the numbers of visitors arriving in Australia. The increase in movements in September 2000 was due to the Sydney Olympic Games.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS
Graph: Short-Term Visitor Arrivals



In original terms, a record 5.6 million short-term visitors arrived in Australia in the year ended June 2007. This was slightly higher than the 5.5 million recorded in the year ended June 2006. Ten years ago (1996-97), 4.3 million short-term visitors arrived in Australia.


The following table shows, for selected years, the top ten source countries (based on 2006-07) for short-term visitor arrivals.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Major Source Countries: Original Series - Financial Years

1996-97
2001-02
2006-07

Countries as a proportion of total (%)
New Zealand
15.9
16.5
19.8
United Kingdom
9.1
13.2
13.0
Japan
18.9
13.8
10.8
United States of America
7.6
8.9
8.1
China
1.4
3.6
6.0
Korea
5.9
3.8
4.8
Singapore
5.3
6.2
4.7
Malaysia
3.3
3.2
2.8
Hong Kong
3.6
3.1
2.7
Germany
3.0
2.9
2.6
Total ('000)
4 252.7
4 768.3
5 641.2


Just over half of all short-term visitors to Australia in the year ended June 2007 stated the main reason for journey as holiday (51%), followed by visiting friends and relatives (20%) and business (11%). During this period the median age of short-term visitors was 39 years and the median duration of stay was 10 days.


New South Wales was the intended state of stay for 39% of all short-term visitors to Australia in the year ended June 2007. The other intended destinations were Queensland (28%), Victoria (18%), Western Australia (9%), South Australia (3%) and the Northern Territory, the Australian Capital Territory and Tasmania (each 1%).



Short-term resident departures

Trend estimates provide the best method to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term resident departures series. Except for the period commencing early 2001 and ending late 2003 where movements fluctuated, trend estimates have recorded strong long-term growth over the ten years ending June 2007. The high point during this period was the current month, June 2007 (449,800 movements) and the low point was in June 1997 (241,900 movements).


As with short-term visitor arrivals, short-term resident departures are also influenced by irregular impacts and this is demonstrated in the seasonally adjusted series. The terrorist attacks in the United States of America, on 11 September 2001 and the subsequent disruption to air travel, the anticipation and commencement of military action in Iraq in early to mid-2003 and the emergence of SARS in early 2003 also influenced the levels of short-term resident departures from Australia. Additionally, the October 2002 Bali bombing and the second Bali bombing in October 2005 disrupted trends in short-term resident departures.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES
Graph: Short-Term Resident Departures



In original terms, a record 5.1 million residents travelled overseas for short-term visits during the year ended June 2007. This compared with 4.8 million in the year ended June 2006. Ten years ago (1996-97), there were 2.8 million residents departing Australia short-term.


The following table shows, for selected years, the top ten destinations (based on 2006-07) for short-term resident departures.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Major Destinations: Original Series - Financial Years

1996-97
2001-02
2006-07

Countries as a proportion of total (%)
New Zealand
14.4
17.6
17.2
United States of America
11.9
8.2
8.8
United Kingdom
10.7
9.1
8.1
Thailand
3.0
4.9
6.5
China
2.1
3.6
5.2
Indonesia
9.9
8.0
4.5
Singapore
3.5
4.8
4.1
Hong Kong
6.2
4.2
3.9
Fiji
2.6
3.4
3.8
Malaysia
3.6
3.3
3.4
Total ('000)
2 837.2
3 367.9
5 127.1


Just under half of all short-term resident departures from Australia in the year ended June 2007 stated the main reason for journey as holiday (48%), followed by visiting friends and relatives (25%) and business (15%). The median age of all residents departing short-term was 41 years and the median duration of stay was 15 days.


The most populous states were the largest contributors to short-term travel overseas in the year ended June 2007. Residents of New South Wales contributed the highest proportion of travellers (38%), followed by Victoria (24%), Queensland (17%), Western Australia (12%), South Australia (5%), the Australian Capital Territory (2%) and Tasmania and the Northern Territory (each 1%).


In terms of the rate of movement for short-term resident departures (the number of movements per 1,000 population) there was considerable variation across the states and territories. Western Australia had the highest movement rate (303 movements per 1,000 population) followed by the Australian Capital Territory (299), New South Wales (282), Victoria (239), Queensland (217), the Northern Territory (198), South Australia (146) and Tasmania (112). Overall, the Australian movement rate was 246 short-term resident departures per 1,000 population.



STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.


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