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5368.0 - International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, Sep 2005  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 03/11/2005   
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SEPTEMBER KEY FIGURES

July 2005
August 2005
September 2005
Aug 05 to Sep 05
$m
$m
$m
% change

Trend

Balance on goods & services
-1 377
-1 415
-1 459
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
14 915
14 906
14 870
-
Debits (imports of goods & services)
16 292
16 321
16 329
-

Seasonally Adjusted

Balance on goods & services
-1 342
-1 458
-1 615
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
15 143
14 777
14 669
-1
Debits (imports of goods & services)
16 485
16 235
16 284
-

. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

Balance on goods and services
Graph: Balance on goods and services



SEPTEMBER KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES
  • The provisional trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,459m in September 2005, an increase of $44m on the revised deficit in August.
  • Goods and services credits fell $36m to $14,870m. Goods and services debits rose $8m to $16,329m.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,615m in September, an increase of $157m on the revised deficit in August.
  • Goods and services credits fell $108m (1%) to $14,669m. Non-rural and other goods fell $90m (1%), and rural goods fell $26m (1%). Services credits rose $8m.
  • Goods and services debits rose $49m to $16,284m. Capital goods rose $80m (3%), intermediate and other goods rose $5m while consumption goods fell $50m (1%). Services debits rose $14m.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original terms, the September balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,512m, an increase of $534m on the revised deficit in August. Goods and services credits fell $370m (2%) and goods and services debits rose $164m (1%).
  • In the three months to September, exports of non-rural and other goods were up $5.9b (24%) while rural goods were down $0.8b (11%) on the corresponding period in 2004-05.


NOTES

REVISIONS

Revisions were made to incorporate the latest available data relating to merchandise trade and trade in services.


In original terms, these revisions have:

  • decreased the deficit on goods and services for August 2005 by $123m
  • decreased the deficit on goods and services for 2004-05 by $204m.


CHANGES TO THIS ISSUE

Annual seasonal re-analysis


Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of the balance on goods and services have been revised as a result of the annual seasonal re-analysis, which reviews the seasonal and trading day factors in more detail than possible in the monthly processing cycle.


Preliminary goods debits chain volume measures and price outcomes


Details of preliminary goods debits chain volume measures and price outcomes could not be provided in time for the release of this issue. These details will be available from the ABS web site on 24 November 2005 as information paper 5368.0.55.001.



AVAILABILITY OF DETAILED SERVICES DATA

International Trade in Services by partner country


AusStats table numbers 21 to 36 containing detailed time series data of Australia's international trade in services by partner country and international trade in services by state, by financial year and by calendar year, have been updated concurrently with this issue to incorporate revisions (including the revisions to travel and tourism related services released in the August issue). In addition, financial year data for 2004-05 have been included.



FEATURE ARTICLE AND CHANGES TO FORTHCOMING ISSUES

Details of a feature article on the ABS Management of the Impact of the Implementation of the Imports Component of the New Customs System and forthcoming changes to seasonal adjustment processes are provided on page four of this publication.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Tom Jebbink on Canberra (02) 62525540.



ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in September 2005 was a deficit of $1,459m, an increase of $44m on the deficit in August.


In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in September 2005 was a deficit of $1,615m, an increase of $157m on the deficit in August.


The sum of the seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to September 2005 was a deficit of $4,415m, an increase of $595m on the deficit of $3,820m for the three months to June 2005. While the annual seasonal re-analysis of quarterly Balance of Payments series has yet to be undertaken, if the more detailed seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly data are applied, the September quarter 2005 provisional deficit was $4,502m, an increase of $147m on the revised June quarter 2005 deficit of $4,355m.



EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $36m between August and September to $14,870m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $108m (1%) to $14,669m. Non-rural and other goods fell $90m (1%), rural goods fell $26m (1%) while services credits rose $8m.


The value of goods credits in original terms is influenced by the number and composition of trading days in September 2005 compared with August 2005. To account for this difference, upward adjustments of about 3% for rural goods and about 5% for non-rural goods have been applied prior to deriving the seasonally adjusted series.


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS
Graph: Goods Credits



Rural goods

The trend estimate of rural goods exports fell $18m (1%) to $2,062m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $26m (1%) to $2,028m.


In original terms, exports of rural goods rose $16m (1%) to $2,052m.


Rural commodity groups had the following deviations from their three year average movement:

  • meat and meat preparations, down $8m (2%), in contrast to an average August to September rise of 7% over the three previous years
  • cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $29m (8%), in contrast to an average August to September rise of around 1% over the previous three years
  • other rural, down $11m (1%), compared with an average August to September fall of 10% over the previous three years
  • wool and sheepskins, up $64m (43%), compared with an average August to September rise of 33% over the previous three years.

Non-rural and other goods

The trend estimate of non-rural and other goods exports fell $36m to $9,671m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural and other goods fell $90m (1%) to $9,491m.


In original terms, exports of non-rural and other goods fell $227m (2%) to $9,763m.


The following commodity groups had the largest deviations from their three year average movement:

  • metal ores and minerals, down $246m (12%), compared with an average August to September fall of less than 1% over the previous three years
  • other mineral fuels, down $77m (7%), in contrast to an average August to September rise of 2% over the previous three years
  • other manufactures, up $12m (1%), compared with an average August to September rise of 6% over the previous three years
  • machinery, down $48m (7%), in contrast to an average August to September rise of 1% over the previous three years
  • coal, coke and briquettes, up $89m (4%), in contrast to an average August to September fall of 6% over the previous three years
  • other non-rural, up $118m (13%), compared with an average August to September rise of 4% over the previous three years.

Exports of services
SERVICES CREDITS
Graph: Services Credits



In trend terms, services credits rose $18m (1%) to $3,137m.


Seasonally adjusted, services credits rose $8m to $3,150m.


Travel services, up $14m (1%), was the main contributor to the rise in the seasonally adjusted series but was partly offset by other services, down $5m (1%).


Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services credits rose $7m to $2,028m.



IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $8m between August and September to $16,329m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $49m to $16,284m. Capital goods rose $80m (3%), services rose $14m, intermediate and other goods rose $5m while consumption goods fell $50m (1%).


The value of goods debits in original terms is influenced by the number and composition of trading days in September 2005 compared with August 2005. To account for this difference, upward adjustments of about 9% for capital goods, about 6% for consumption goods, and about 5% for intermediate and other goods have been applied prior to deriving the seasonally adjusted series.


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS
Graph: GOODS DEBITS



Consumption goods

The trend estimate of imports of consumption goods rose $14m to $4,066m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $50m (1%) to $4,048m.


In original terms, imports of consumption goods rose $53m (1%) to $4,542m.


The following commodity groups had the largest deviations from their three year average movement:

  • consumption goods n.e.s., down $58m (4%), in contrast to an average August to September rise of 8% over the previous three years
  • non-industrial transport equipment, up $72m (6%), compared with an average August to September rise of 22% over the previous three years
  • food and beverages, up $11m (2%), compared with an average August to September rise of 8% over the previous three years

Capital goods

The trend estimate of imports of capital goods remained steady at $2,968m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $80m (3%) to $3,013m.


In original terms, imports of capital goods fell $89m (3%) to $3,069m.


The following commodity groups had the largest deviations from their three year average movement:

  • telecommunications equipment, up $21m (5%), in contrast to an average August to September fall of 2% over the previous three years
  • civil aircraft, up $89m (109%)
  • industrial transport equipment n.e.s., down $51m (11%), in contrast to an average August to September rise of 10% over the previous three years
  • machinery and industrial equipment, down $142m (11%), compared with an average August to September fall of 5% over the previous three years
  • ADP equipment, up $18m (4%), compared with an average August to September rise of 11% over the previous three years.

Intermediate and Other Goods

The trend estimate of imports of intermediate and other goods fell $5m to $6,089m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, intermediate and other goods imports rose $5m to $6,022m.


In original terms, imports of intermediate and other goods fell $76m (1%) to $6,246m.


The following commodity groups had the largest deviations from their three year average movement:

  • fuels and lubricants, up $122m (9%), compared with an average August to September rise of 1% over the previous three years (with volumes of crude oil down and prices up)
  • paper and paperboard, up $22m (11%), compared with an average August to September rise of 1% over the previous three years
  • primary industrial supplies n.e.s., up $18m (17%), compared with an average August to September rise of 5% over the previous three years
  • parts for transport equipment, up $13m (2%), compared with a marginal average August to September rise over the previous three years
  • other goods, down $171m (27%), in contrast to an average August to September rise of 10% over the previous three years
  • iron and steel, down $68m (20%), compared with an average August to September fall of 4% over the previous three years
  • organic and inorganic chemicals, down $58m (17%), compared with an average August to September fall of 5% over the previous three years.

Imports of services
SERVICES DEBITS
Graph: SERVICES DEBITS



In trend terms, services debits fell $1m to $3,206m.


Seasonally adjusted, services debits rose $14m to $3,201m.


The movements in the seasonally adjusted components contributing to this rise were:

  • other services, up $5m (1%)
  • travel services, up $5m
  • transportation services, up $4m.

Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services debits rose $39m (2%) to $1,702m.



FEATURE ARTICLE AND CHANGES TO FORTHCOMING ISSUES


FEATURE ARTICLE

Introduction of new customs system


Custom's Integrated Cargo System was introduced in October 2005. A feature article, ABS Management of the Impact of the Implementation of the Imports Component of the New Customs System, which provides more information, was released on the ABS web site on 16 September 2005 with the August 2005 release of International Merchandise Imports, Australia (cat. no. 5439.0).


To access this article select: Themes then International Trade then Topics of Interest.



CHANGES TO FORTHCOMING ISSUES

Detailed monthly seasonal adjustment


Currently, monthly goods series are only seasonally adjusted at the broad levels shown in Table 1, while quarterly goods series are seasonally adjusted at a more detailed level in Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0). From the October 2005 issue of this publication, the monthly goods series will be seasonally adjusted at the same level as the quarterly series, except that other non-rural credits will not be split between beverages, sugar and other in the monthly series.


This change should result in greater alignment between the monthly and quarterly series. However, introducing seasonal adjustment at the more detailed level will result in revisions to the current seasonally adjusted and trend series.


Changes to table formats, table numbering and AusStats tables


The changes to detailed monthly seasonal adjustment will result in the October issue containing four additional tables, consequential table renumbering, some reformatting of table presentations, and corresponding changes to AusStats table presentations. Details of these changes, along with prototypes of all table changes, will be available from the ABS web site on 24 November 2005 as information paper 5368.0.55.002.


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