Australian Bureau of Statistics
8731.0 - Building Approvals, Australia, May 2004
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 02/07/2004
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MAY KEY FIGURES
MAY KEY POINTS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE
There are no changes in this issue. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates will be revised next issue as a result of the annual reanalysis of seasonal factors. This reanalysis will include some changes to the method of aggregation used for seasonal adjustment. One outcome of the reanalysis is that the value of Non-residential building time series have been assessed to be non-seasonal and are therefore, not suitable for release (Tables 13, 14 and 24, and corresponding Time Series spreadsheets). The value of Non-residential building in original and trend terms will continue to be published. For further details of these changes, please contact firstname.lastname@example.org or telephone (02) 6252 6345.
Estimates have been included in this issue for four councils unable to report all building work approved in their municipalities this month (Hornsby and Lake Macquarie in New South Wales, Noosa in Queensland, and Burnside in South Australia).
A new article ‘Focus on the Queensland Construction Industry’ is available from the ABS website.
ALTERATIONS AND ADDITIONS TO RESIDENTIAL BUILDING
The trend estimate of the value of alterations and additions to residential building has fallen for the last seven months, with the rate of decline slowing over recent months. The trend fell 0.7% in May 2004.
The trend estimate of the value of non-residential building rose by 1.2% in May 2004, following falls in the previous nine months.
TOTAL DWELLING UNITS
The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved is now showing increases over the last two months, following six months of decline. The trend rose 0.5% in May 2004.
PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES
The trend estimate for private sector houses approved has fallen for the last eight months, following eight months of growth. The trend fell 0.6% in May 2004.
The trend estimate for other dwellings approved is now showing rises for the last four months, following four months of decline. The trend rose 2.8% in May 2004.
DWELLING UNITS APPROVED - STATES AND TERRITORIES
The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved rose 0.5% in May 2004. The Australian Capital Territory (+7.1%), the Northern Territory (+4.4%) and Tasmania (+3.5%) showed the strongest growth. The trend fell in Queensland (-2.9%), South Australia (-0.2%) and Western Australia (-0.1%).
The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.6% in May 2004. The trend fell in Queensland (-3.7%) and South Australia (-0.5%), but rose in Western Australia (+0.9%). The trend was flat in New South Wales and Victoria.
DWELLING UNITS APPROVED
NEW SOUTH WALES
The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in New South Wales has risen for the last four months, with the rate of growth slowing in May 2004. The trend for private sector houses has been flat for the last four months.
The trend estimates for total dwelling units approved in Victoria is now showing rises over the last three months, following six months of decline. The trend for private sector houses was flat in May 2004, after falling for the previous eight months.
The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in Queensland has fallen for the last eight months, following six months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the for the last six months.
The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in South Australia has fallen for the last eight months, with the rate of decline slowing over the last three months. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last eight months.
The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in Western Australia has fallen for the last six months, following six months of growth. The trend for private sector houses rose in May 2004, following five months of decline.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES
EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES
Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent months become available. The approximate effect of possible scenarios on trend estimates are presented below. Generally, the greater the volatility of the original series, the larger the size of the revisions to trend estimates. Analysis of the building approval original series has shown that they can be revised substantially. As a result, some months can elapse before turning points in the trend series are reliably identified.
The graphs and tables which follow present the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates: that the June seasonally adjusted estimate is higher than the May estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 13% for other dwelling units approved; and that the June seasonally adjusted estimate is lower than the May estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 13% for other dwelling units approved. These percentages represent the average absolute monthly percentage change for these series over the last ten years.
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This page last updated 20 June 2006