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5368.0 - International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, Feb 2005  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 05/04/2005   
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FEBRUARY KEY FIGURES

December 2004
January 2005
February 2005
Jan 05 to Feb 05
$m
$m
$m
% change

Trend

Balance on goods & services
-2,320
-2,308
-2,307
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
13,293
13,417
13,530
1
Debits (imports of goods & services)
15,613
15,725
15,837
1

Seasonally Adjusted

Balance on goods & services
-2,314
-2,268
-2,178
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
13,267
13,523
13,672
1
Debits (imports of goods & services)
15,581
15,791
15,850
-

. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

Balance on goods and services
Graph: Balance on goods and services



FEBRUARY KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES
  • The provisional trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,307m in February 2005, a decrease of $1m on the deficit in January.
  • Goods and services credits rose $113m (1%) to $13,530m. Non-rural and other goods rose $73m (1%), while rural goods fell $10m. Services credits rose $50m (2%).
  • Goods and services debits rose $112m (1%) to $15,837m. Consumption goods rose $61m (2%), capital goods rose $2m, while intermediate and other goods fell $3m. Services debits rose $52m (2%).


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,178m in February, a decrease of $90m on the deficit in January.
  • Goods and services credits rose $149m (1%) to $13,672m. Rural goods rose $141m (7%), while non-rural and other goods fell $59m (1%). Services credits rose $67m (2%).
  • Goods and services debits rose $59m to $15,850m. Capital goods rose $168m (6%), while consumption goods fell $81m (2%) and intermediate and other goods fell $65m (1%). Services debits rose $37m (1%).


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original terms, the February balance on goods and services was a deficit of $497m, a decrease of $1,412m on the deficit in January. Goods and services credits rose $877m (7%) and goods and services debits fell $535m (4%).
  • In the eight months to February, exports of non-rural and other goods were up $9.3b (17%) and rural goods were up $2.2b (15%) on the corresponding period in 2003-04.


NOTES



REVISIONS

January 2005 exports estimates have been revised after it was identified that incomplete exports data had been transferred to the ABS from the Australian Customs Service. Data for periods prior to January 2005 are not affected. These revisions were announced in a Corrigendum to the January 2005 issue of this publication that was issued on 1 April 2005.


Revisions were also made to incorporate the latest available data relating to merchandise trade and the quarterly Survey of International Trade in Services.


As a result of these revisions, total goods credits, in original terms, for January 2005 has been increased by $371m. The deficit on the balance of goods and services for January 2005 has been revised down by $440m.



AVAILABLITY OF DETAILED EXPORTS DATA

Due to the late detection of the problem with the exports data files, it is not feasible for the ABS to publish detailed trade exports data for January and February 2005 in Tables 8, 10 and 11 of this publication, or the associated AusStats Tables 13, 14 and 18. Detailed exports data for both January and February 2005 will be available with the March 2005 issue of this publication, scheduled for release on 5 May 2005.


While a delay to the release of detailed export data is regretted, the ABS priority is to ensure the continued availablity of key macro-economic indicators.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Tom Jebbink on Canberra (02) 62525540.



ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in February 2005 was a deficit of $2,307m, virtually unchanged on the deficit in January.


In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in February 2005 was a deficit of $2,178m, a decrease of $90m on the deficit in January.



EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $113m (1%) between January and February to $13,530m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $149m (1%) between January and February to $13,672m. Rural goods rose $141m (7%) and services credits rose $67m (2%), while non-rural and other goods fell $59m (1%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS
Graph: Goods Credits



Rural goods

The trend estimate of rural goods exports fell $10m to $2,042m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $141m (7%) to $2,149m.


In original terms, exports of rural goods rose $374m (22%) to $2,092m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • Other rural, up $115m (16%), in contrast to an average January to February fall of 2% over the previous three years
  • Meat and meat preparations, up $201m (56%), compared with an average January to February rise of 43% over the previous three years.

Contributing to the rise by about 9 percentage points was an adjustment made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account different trading day patterns in January and February.


Partly offsetting these effects were cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $14m (3%), compared with an average January to February fall of 2% over the previous three years.


Exports of goods continued

Non-rural and other goods

The trend estimate of non-rural and other goods exports rose $73m (1%) to $8,402m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural and other goods fell $59m (1%) to $8,391m.


In original terms, exports of non-rural and other goods rose $117m (2%) to $7,629m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • metal ores and minerals, down $113m (8%), in contrast to an average January to February rise of 3% over the previous three years
  • transport equipment, up $132m (61%), compared with an average January to February rise of 71% over the previous three years
  • metals (excluding gold), down $73m (10%), compared with an average January to February fall of 7% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were:
  • coal, coke and briquettes, down $111m (8%), compared with an average January to February fall of 14% over the previous three years
  • other manufactures, up $260m (29%), compared with an average January to February rise of 23% over the previous three years.

Contributing to the offset by about 10 percentage points was an adjustment made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account different trading day patterns in January and February.


Exports of Services

SERVICES CREDITS
Graph: Services Credits



In trend terms, services credits rose $50m (2%) to $3,086m.


Seasonally adjusted, services credits rose $67m (2%) to $3,132m.


Movements in the seasonally adjusted components contributing to this rise were:

  • travel services, up $44m (3%)
  • other services, up $13m (2%)
  • passenger and other transportation services, up $9m (1%).

Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services credits rose $53m (3%) to $1,982m.



IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $112m (1%) between January and February to $15,837m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $59m to $15,850m.


Capital goods rose $168m (6%) and services debits rose $37m (1%), while consumption goods fell $81m (2%) and intermediate and other goods fell $65m (1%).


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS
Graph: GOODS DEBITS



Consumption goods

The trend estimate of imports of consumption goods rose $61m (2%) to $4,092m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $81m (2%) to $4,105m.


In original terms, imports of consumption goods fell marginally to $3,717m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • non-industrial transport equipment, down $162m (14%), in contrast to an average January to February rise of 7% over the previous three years
  • food and beverages, down $57m (12%), compared with an average January to February fall of 11% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were:
  • consumption goods n.e.s., up $160m (15%), compared with an average January to February rise of 3% over the previous three years
  • toys, books and leisure goods, up $21m (9%), in contrast to an average January to February fall of 1% over the previous three years
  • household electrical items, up $39m (16%), compared with an average January to February rise of 10% over the previous three years.

Contributing to the offset by about 8 percentage points was an adjustment made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account different trading day patterns in January and February.


Capital goods

The trend estimate of imports of capital goods rose $2m to $2,890m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $168m (6%) to $2,952m.


In original terms, imports of capital goods rose $17m (1%) to $2,434m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • machinery and industrial equipment, up $12m (1%), in contrast to an average January to February fall of 17% over the previous three years
  • capital goods n.e.s., up $46m (15%), compared with an average January to February rise of 3% over the previous three years
  • automatic data processing equipment, up $10m (3%), in contrast to an average January to February fall of 1% over the previous three years.

Contributing to the rise by about 5 percentage points was an adjustment made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account different trading day patterns in January and February.


Partly offsetting these effects were:

  • industrial transport equipment n.e.s., down $77m (19%), in contrast to an average January to February rise of 3% over the previous three years
  • telecommunications equipment, up $24m (8%), compared with an average January to February rise of 17% over the previous three years.

Intermediate and Other Goods

The trend estimate of imports of intermediate and other goods fell $3m to $5,573m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, intermediate and other goods imports fell $65m (1%) to $5,485m.


In original terms, imports of intermediate and other goods fell $61m (1%) to $5,083m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • other merchandise goods, down $6m (9%), in contrast to an average January to February rise of 62% over the previous three years
  • other goods, down $29m (8%), compared with an average January to February fall of 3% over the previous three years
  • primary industrial supplies n.e.s., down $13m (16%), compared with an average January to February fall of 7% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were:
  • organic and inorganic chemicals, up $41m (14%), in contrast to an average January to February fall of 14% over the previous three years
  • iron and steel, up $19m (7%), in contrast to an average January to February fall of 17% over the previous three years
  • other parts for capital goods, up $24m (3%), in contrast to an average January to February fall of 6% over the previous three years.

Contributing to the offset by about 6 percentage points was an adjustment made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account different trading day patterns in January and February.


Imports of Services

SERVICES DEBITS
Graph: SERVICES DEBITS



In trend terms, services debits rose $52m (2%) to $3,282m.


Seasonally adjusted, services debits rose $37m (1%) to $3,308m.


Movements in the seasonally adjusted components contributing to this rise were:

  • passenger and other transportation services, up $49m (9%)
  • travel services, up $37m (3%).

Partly offsetting these effects were freight transportation services, down $50m (7%)


Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services debits rose $72m (4%) to $1,760m.


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