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3401.0.55.001 - Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia, Feb 2005  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 17/03/2005   
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NOTES

DATA NOTES

The estimates presented in this publication provide an early indication of short-term visitor arrival movements prior to final data becoming available for the reference month. Monthly data prior to the reference month are final estimates. The ABS encourages users of these data to refer to the ABS monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0) for final ABS estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for the reference period. Final estimates for February 2005 will be released on 7 April 2005.


This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 6 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


Calculations of percentage and numeric change as shown in the Main Features of this publication are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 10 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


Original estimates are influenced by seasonal and one-off irregular factors which can distort interpretations of the underlying growth in the series. Therefore, the ABS encourages the use of the trend estimates for time series analysis. See the Demography Working Paper 2004/2 - Interpretation and Use of Overseas Arrivals and Departures Estimates (cat. no. 3106.0.55.002).


Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates at the current end of the series are subject to revision due to additional original information becoming available. See paragraphs 14 and 17 of the Explanatory Notes.



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

New standard errors - From this issue a new set of standard errors has been applied to sampled estimates. This is because the sample for short-term movements has been increased as a result of a review, resulting in smaller standard errors. New standard errors were presented in the Standard Errors section of the January 2005 issue of Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0).


Ramadan correction for seasonal and trend time series estimates - A correction has been made to the seasonal time series model for short-term visitor arrivals from Malaysia and Indonesia, which has resulted in revisions to the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates for these two countries. This has been made after detection of a significant influence on travel from these two countries associated with the end of the Islamic month of Ramadan. Ramadan is the ninth month of the Islamic calendar and starts eleven days earlier each year in the Western calendar, so adjustments for this effect apply to different months over the years. Other time series did not have a significant Ramadan effect and a correction was not applied for these time series. The seasonally adjusted and trend estimates for Total South-East Asia have changed as a consequence of the correction to the Malaysia and Indonesia series.



EMERGING ISSUES

December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami - The 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami have impacted on overseas arrivals from, and resident departures to, affected countries but quantifying the size of this impact in February 2005 overseas arrivals and departures estimates is not yet possible. This impact may affect the reliability of recent ABS trend estimates. The ABS will continue to monitor and report on this situation.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.



MAIN FEATURES


TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia for February 2005 (463,900 movements) increased by 1.0% compared with January 2005 (459,500 movements). This followed increases of 1.2% for December 2004 and 1.1% for January 2005.


According to trend estimates, this is the twelfth consecutive monthly increase in the series. However, monthly increases have slowed in recent months. Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 9.2% higher than when the series last troughed in February 2004 (425,000 movements).



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in February 2005 (461,500 movements) decreased by 3.3% compared with January 2005 (477,100 movements). This followed an increase of less than one percentage point in December 2004 and 4.9% in January 2005.

Graph: Visitor Arrivals, Short Term



ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original movement terms there were an estimated 498,100 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during February 2005.

TABLE 1: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT, VISITOR ARRIVALS(a) - February 2005

Feb 05
Jan 05 to Feb 05
Feb 04 to Feb 05
'000
% change
% change

Trend
463.9
1.0
9.2
Seasonally adjusted
461.5
-3.3
. .
Original
498.1
. .
. .

. . not applicable
(a) Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates may be revised each month. See paragraphs 14 and 17 of Explanatory Notes.

TABLE 2: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT(a), VISITOR ARRIVALS - Country of Residence(b)

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jan 05
Feb 05
Jan 05 to Feb 05
Feb 04 to Feb 05
Jan 05
Feb 05
Jan 05 to Feb 05
Feb 05
Country of residence
'000
'000
% change
% change
'000
'000
% change
'000

OCEANIA & ANTARCTICA
New Zealand
89.4
90.1
0.8
11.9
90.0
90.3
0.3
62.8
Total
99.7
100.4
0.7
11.1
100.2
100.4
0.1
72.5
NORTH-WEST EUROPE
Germany
12.1
12.2
0.6
5.9
11.8
12.4
4.7
16.1
Netherlands
4.2
4.3
1.8
5.7
4.3
4.3
1.1
5.5
Sweden
3.0
3.0
1.8
9.5
3.0
3.1
2.8
4.5
Switzerland
3.6
3.6
1.6
2.4
3.6
3.6
-1.4
4.0
United Kingdom
58.1
59.1
1.8
5.3
60.9
59.2
-2.9
76.8
Total
97.9
99.4
1.6
6.5
100.4
99.3
-1.1
126.7
SOUTHERN & EASTERN EUROPE
Italy
4.4
4.4
0.9
17.5
4.9
4.0
-17.9
3.6
Total
10.6
10.8
2.0
17.3
11.7
9.9
-15.1
10.3
NORTH AFRICA & THE MIDDLE EAST
5.8
6.1
5.5
24.5
6.2
7.0
12.4
6.8
SOUTH-EAST ASIA
Indonesia
6.3
6.4
1.2
-12.9
6.2
6.9
11.4
7.7
Malaysia
14.6
14.2
-2.2
-0.8
15.0
13.2
-12.2
17.6
Philippines
2.8
2.8
2.1
7.7
2.7
3.0
11.3
2.6
Singapore
23.4
23.8
1.7
13.4
24.3
23.2
-4.3
25.2
Thailand
6.4
6.4
-
-2.4
6.6
6.4
-3.3
5.5
Total
55.9
56.2
0.6
4.4
56.8
55.3
-2.5
61.8
NORTH-EAST ASIA
China
23.7
23.7
0.1
18.1
(c)n.p.
(c)n.p.
(c)n.p.
34.9
Japan
63.2
63.0
-0.4
5.8
65.5
62.5
-4.7
61.7
Korea
19.6
20.0
1.9
17.9
20.5
20.5
-
21.3
Taiwan
8.9
8.9
0.4
15.8
6.8
9.5
39.6
11.5
Total
128.4
128.7
0.2
11.1
139.8
126.6
-9.5
148.4
AMERICAS
Canada
8.7
8.9
2.0
15.9
9.0
8.7
-3.8
11.9
United States of America
37.1
37.6
1.6
6.2
37.8
38.5
1.8
43.8
Total
48.6
49.5
1.7
8.5
49.6
50.1
1.0
58.7
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
South Africa
4.2
4.2
1.1
-0.4
4.0
4.2
4.9
3.9
Total
5.7
5.8
1.8
1.4
5.5
5.8
5.0
5.7
Total(d)
459.5
463.9
1.0
9.2
477.1
461.5
-3.3
498.1

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This table presents a summary of the most recent overseas arrivals and departures estimates. Time series data for months earlier than those presented in this table are available as AusStats time series spreadsheets.
(b) Data for the current month are statistically modelled on passport movements and past arrival trends from passenger cards. Monthly data prior to the current month are estimates based on passenger card data.
(c) Seasonally adjusted data for short-term visitor arrivals from China is of an unpublishable standard.
(d) Includes Southern and Central Asia and not stated/inadequately described.

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