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3401.0.55.001 - Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia, Jan 2006  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 17/02/2006   
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NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE Release Date
February 2006 16 March 2006
March 2006 21 April 2006
April 2006 17 May 2006
May 2006 20 June 2006
June 2006 19 July 2006
July 2006 17 August 2006



DATA NOTES

The estimates presented in this publication provide an early indication of short-term visitor arrival movements prior to final data becoming available for the reference month. Monthly data prior to the reference month are final estimates. The ABS encourages users of these data to refer to the ABS monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0) for final ABS estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for the reference period. Final estimates for January 2006 will be released on 7 March 2006.


This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See Explanatory Note 6.


Calculations of percentage and numeric change as shown in the Main Features of this publication are based on unrounded data. See Explanatory Note 10.


Original estimates are influenced by seasonal and one-off or irregular factors which may distort interpretations of the underlying growth in the series. Therefore, the ABS encourages the use of the trend estimates for time series analysis. See the Demography Working Paper 2004/2 - Interpretation and Use of Overseas Arrivals and Departures Estimates (cat. no. 3106.0.55.002).


Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates are subject to revision, particularly at the current end of the series, due to additional original information becoming available. See Explanatory Notes 14 to 17.



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.



MAIN FEATURES


TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia for January 2006 (452,000 movements) decreased by 0.2% compared with December 2005 (453,200 movements). This followed monthly decreases of 0.4% for November 2005 and 0.3% for December 2005.


Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 1.8% lower than in January 2005.



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia for January 2006 (456,000 movements) increased by 0.1% compared with December 2005 (455,800 movements). This followed a monthly decrease of 4.0% for November 2005 and a monthly increase of 3.3% for December 2005.

Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Visitor arrivals Short-term




ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original movement terms there were an estimated 464,400 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during January 2006.

TABLE 1: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT(a), VISITOR ARRIVALS - January 2006

Jan 06
Dec 05 to Jan 06
Jan 05 to Jan 06
'000
% change
% change

Trend
452.0
-0.2
-1.8
Seasonally adjusted
456.0
0.1
. .
Original
464.4
. .
. .

. . not applicable
(a) Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates may be revised each month. See Explanatory Notes 14 to 17.

TABLE 2: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT(a), VISITOR ARRIVALS - Country of Residence(b)

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Dec 05
Jan 06
Dec 05 to Jan 06
Jan 05 to Jan 06
Dec 05
Jan 06
Dec 05 to Jan 06
Jan 06
Country of residence
'000
'000
% change
% change
'000
'000
% change
'000

OCEANIA & ANTARCTICA
New Zealand
89.8
89.8
0.1
-1.3
91.6
92.9
1.3
65.0
Total
100.4
100.4
0.1
-1.1
102.2
103.9
1.6
79.9
NORTH-WEST EUROPE
Germany
12.3
12.3
0.1
3.0
12.3
12.9
4.8
13.7
Netherlands
4.2
4.2
0.4
1.5
4.3
4.3
-
4.9
Sweden
3.0
3.1
1.2
4.2
3.2
3.1
-2.8
4.3
Switzerland
3.3
3.2
-0.7
-9.3
3.2
3.4
7.2
4.9
United Kingdom
57.4
57.5
0.2
-3.1
59.5
58.4
-1.9
69.1
Total
97.3
97.5
0.2
-1.4
100.3
99.1
-1.1
115.3
SOUTHERN & EASTERN EUROPE
Italy
4.4
4.5
2.4
5.9
4.4
4.6
3.1
4.6
Total
10.4
10.6
1.7
3.5
10.6
10.7
0.9
12.1
NORTH AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST
Total
6.2
6.2
0.7
9.0
6.3
6.3
0.2
5.5
SOUTH-EAST ASIA
Indonesia
7.1
6.8
-3.8
-2.1
6.2
6.1
-1.4
5.4
Malaysia
13.6
13.4
-1.5
-9.1
13.8
12.9
-6.6
9.5
Philippines
3.0
3.1
2.9
13.9
2.4
3.7
54.2
2.5
Singapore
20.2
19.5
-3.5
-15.1
19.8
19.3
-2.5
14.6
Thailand
6.1
5.9
-2.1
-9.6
6.4
5.5
-13.4
4.3
Total
52.3
51.1
-2.3
-9.1
51.0
50.0
-1.9
38.5
NORTH-EAST ASIA
China
23.8
23.6
-1.1
0.6
23.9
20.8
-12.8
30.5
Japan
59.5
59.5
-
-2.3
56.8
60.6
6.6
62.8
Korea
19.5
19.3
-1.0
-3.2
19.0
19.3
1.6
28.7
Taiwan
8.8
8.6
-2.3
-7.0
8.5
8.8
3.0
10.5
Total
124.7
124.0
-0.6
-1.9
122.8
121.6
-1.0
146.0
AMERICAS
Canada
8.5
8.5
0.7
-1.5
8.8
8.8
-0.6
12.8
United States of America
36.0
36.1
0.4
-2.8
37.1
37.6
1.4
37.9
Total
47.6
47.8
0.5
-1.6
49.1
49.6
1.1
54.8
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
South Africa
4.9
5.0
3.6
19.3
5.0
5.2
3.8
3.7
Total
6.4
6.6
2.2
14.9
6.4
6.8
5.9
5.4
Total(c)
453.2
452.0
-0.2
-1.8
455.8
456.0
0.1
464.4

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This table presents a summary of the most recent overseas arrivals and departures estimates. Time series data for months earlier than those presented in this table are available as time series spreadsheets from the ABS web site.
(b) Data for the current month are statistically modelled on passport movements and past arrival trends from passenger cards. Monthly data prior to the current month are estimates based on passenger card data.
(c) Includes Southern and Central Asia and not stated/inadequately described.


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