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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Feb 2006  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 05/04/2006   
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FEBRUARY KEY FIGURES

Feb '06
Jan '06 to Feb '06
Feb '05 to Feb '06
'000
% change
% change

Short-term visitor arrivals
Trend
462.8
0.5
0.3
Seasonally adjusted
472.1
1.8
. .
Original
488.5
. .
. .
Short-term resident departures
Trend
391.9
-0.3
1.4
Seasonally adjusted
383.7
-1.8
. .
Original
295.6
. .
. .

. . not applicable

Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Visitor arrivals Short-term

Resident departures, Short-term
Graph: Resident departures Short-term



FEBRUARY KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES

  • Trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during February 2006 (462,800 movements) increased by 0.5% compared with January 2006. This followed monthly increases of 0.3% for December 2005 and 0.5% for January 2006.
  • Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 1.3% higher than when the series last troughed in November 2005 (456,900 movements) and 0.3% higher than in February 2005.
  • During February 2006, short-term resident departures (391,900 movements) decreased by 0.3% compared with January 2006. This followed a small monthly increase for December 2005 and a monthly decrease of 0.1% for January 2006.
  • Currently, short-term resident departures are 0.5% lower than when the series last peaked in December 2005 (393,700 movements) and 1.4% higher than in February 2005.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • Seasonally adjusted estimates for short-term visitor arrivals during February 2006 (472,100 movements) increased by 1.8% compared with January 2006 and followed monthly increases of 3.5% for December 2005 and 1.5% for January 2006.
  • Short-term resident departures for February 2006 (383,700 movements) decreased by 1.8% compared with January 2006 and followed a monthly increase of 3.5% for December 2005 and a monthly decrease of 4.1% for January 2006.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original movement terms, there were 488,500 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia and 295,600 short-term resident departures from Australia during February 2006.


NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE Release Date
March 2006 9 May 2006
April 2006 1 June 2006
May 2006 6 July 2006
June 2006 7 August 2006
July 2006 4 September 2006
August 2006 9 October 2006



EARLY ESTIMATES

Early estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for March 2006 will be available on the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) web site on 21 April 2006. These estimates can be accessed by going to the ABS web site at <http://www.abs.gov.au>. Select All statistics - Access to all ABS products & statistics, then By Catalogue Number, then 3. Demography, then 34. Migration. Choose Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0.55.001).



DATA NOTES

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


The statistics in this publication have been rounded to the nearest 100 for short-term movements and to the nearest 10 for permanent and long-term movements. As a result, sums of the components may not add exactly to totals. Analysis featured in the Key Points and Main Features of this publication is based on unrounded data. Calculations made on rounded data may differ to those published.



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.



MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in February 2006 (462,800 movements) were 0.3% higher than in February 2005 and 0.5% higher than in January 2006. Short-term visitor arrivals are currently 1.3% higher than when the series last troughed in November 2005 (456,900 movements).


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during February 2006. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the percentage change in trend compared with January 2006 and February 2005.

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Major Source Countries - February 2006

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jan 06 to Feb 06
Feb 05 to Feb 06
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

United Kingdom
58.7
60.2
78.9
0.9
-2.6
Japan
59.8
61.2
62.2
-
2.1
New Zealand
92.1
88.0
61.0
0.6
-0.6
United States of America
37.5
40.1
45.2
1.7
-0.5
China
25.8
27.8
35.4
1.7
13.6
Korea
19.6
20.6
22.0
-0.4
-5.3
Singapore
21.2
22.7
18.4
0.4
-7.5
Germany
12.4
12.2
15.6
0.4
3.4
Malaysia
13.8
14.4
15.0
-0.2
-4.3
Hong Kong
13.7
14.2
13.4
0.9
7.4

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)



SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia in February 2006 (391,900 movements) were 1.4% higher than in February 2005 and 0.3% lower than in January 2006. Short-term resident departures are currently 0.5% lower than when the series last peaked in December 2005 (393,700 movements).


The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during February 2006. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the percentage change in trend compared with January 2006 and February 2005.


A trend break was introduced from October 2005 (see Explanatory Note 22). In original terms, short-term resident departures to Indonesia were ranked 4th in September 2005 and are now no longer in the top ten destinations for residents departing.

Short-term Resident Departures, Major Destinations - February 2006

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jan 05 to Feb 06
Feb 05 to Feb 06
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
70.7
71.1
71.4
0.1
0.9
United States of America
36.0
36.5
24.5
-0.7
7.1
Thailand
22.7
21.0
17.5
2.6
45.8
United Kingdom
30.9
27.0
14.5
-2.1
-2.0
China
19.0
19.9
14.1
-0.9
1.7
Singapore
16.8
16.6
13.6
0.1
9.8
Hong Kong
14.7
14.1
13.0
-1.2
-1.1
Malaysia
14.7
14.7
11.6
1.9
2.3
India
8.3
8.3
11.1
0.2
17.6
Fiji
17.1
16.5
11.1
0.7
4.6



SHORT-TERM TRAVEL - SINGAPORE

Short-term visitor arrivals

Trend estimates for February 2006 show the number of short-term visitor arrivals from Singapore represented 5% (21,200 movements) of all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia. Over the last ten years the series has fluctuated. The high point over this period was in July 2001 (27,600 movements) while the low point was in September 1996 (18,100 movements). In February 2006 the trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals from Singapore was 7% lower than in February 2005.

SINGAPORE, Short-term Visitor Arrivals
Graph: SINGAPORE, Short-term Visitor Arrivals



In original terms, short-term visitor arrivals from Singapore in February 2006 stated holiday (26%) as the main reason for journey followed by education (25%), business (23%) and visiting friends and relatives (13%). In comparison, the main reasons for journey for all short-term visitors to Australia were holiday (49%), visiting friends and relatives (18%), education (12%) and business (11%). The median age of short-term visitor arrivals from Singapore was 35 years (38 years for all visitors) and the median intended duration of stay was 10 days (also 10 days for all visitors).


New South Wales (29%), Victoria (27%), Western Australia (22%) and Queensland (15%) were the main states/territories of intended stay for short-term visitors from Singapore in February 2006. While the main destinations for all short-term visitors to Australia were the same as for visitors from Singapore the proportions differed considerably: New South Wales (41%), Queensland (24%), Victoria (20%) and Western Australia (9%).


Short-term resident departures

Trend estimates for February 2006 show the number of short-term resident departures to Singapore represented 4% (16,800 movements) of all short-term resident departures. While the series has fluctuated over the last ten years it has generally followed an upward trend. The current month (February 2006) is the high point in the series while the low point over the ten year period was in March 1997 (8,000 movements). In February 2006 the trend estimate for short-term resident departures to Singapore was 10% higher than in February 2005.

SINGAPORE, Short-term Resident Departures
Graph: SINGAPORE, Short-term Resident Departures



In original terms, 36% of Australian residents travelling to Singapore in February 2006 stated holiday as their main reason for journey, followed by business (32%) and visiting friends and relatives (13%). In comparison, the main reasons for journey for all residents departing Australia short-term were holiday (42%), visiting friends and relatives (23%) and business (21%). The median age of short-term residents departing to Singapore was 44 years (43 years for all residents) and the median intended duration of stay was 8 days (14 days for all residents).



PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 10,960 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during February 2006, an increase of 12.0% compared with February 2005 (9,780 movements). People born in the United Kingdom and New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (each 16%), followed by people born in India (9%) and China (8%).


There were 5,060 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during February 2006, an increase of 3.8% compared with February 2005 (4,880 movements).


Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Therefore, care should be taken when using long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).



STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates add to the understanding of overseas arrivals and departures (OAD) statistics. Seasonally adjusted estimates allow users to analyse short-term movements including irregular impacts on the series, while trend estimates provide a better method to analyse and monitor the underlying direction of the short-term movement series. In most cases the trend series is the best source of information on the long-term direction of these statistics.



SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Selected source countries

The graph for the United Kingdom illustrates the long-term increase in the trend series for visitor arrivals. For New Zealand the graph shows, in the trend series, a possible recent plateau in growth following strong increases which commenced in early 2003. The graph for Japan shows the significant impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) on the seasonally adjusted arrivals series in mid-2003.

United Kingdom
Graph: United Kingdom short-term visitor arrivals
New Zealand
Graph: New Zealand short-term visitor arrivals
Japan
Graph: Japan short-term visitor arrivals




SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

Selected destinations

For residents departing to the United States of America the graph illustrates the effect of the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in that country on short-term departures of Australian residents to the United States of America. The graph for New Zealand illustrates that departures of Australian residents, which had been experiencing strong growth since May 2003, have plateaued over recent months. For Indonesia the graph shows the impact of the 12 October 2002 Bali bombing and the reduced level of travel experienced in the next twelve months. The effect of the 1 October 2005 Bali bombing is also evident and a new break in the trend series has been introduced.

United States of America
Graph: United States of America short-term resident departures
New Zealand
Graph: New Zealand short-term resident departures
Indonesia
Graph: Indonesia short-term resident departures


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