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5368.0 - International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, Jun 2005  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 02/08/2005   
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JUNE KEY FIGURES

April 2005
May 2005
June 2005
May 05 to Jun 05
$m
$m
$m
% change

Trend

Balance on goods & services
-1,581
-1,492
-1,437
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
14,399
14,549
14,660
1
Debits (imports of goods & services)
15,980
16,041
16,097
-

Seasonally Adjusted

Balance on goods & services
-1,428
-1,496
-1,371
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
14,584
14,727
14,616
-1
Debits (imports of goods & services)
16,012
16,223
15,987
-1

. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

Balance on goods and services
Graph: Balance on goods and services



JUNE KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES
  • The provisional trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,437m in June 2005, a decrease of $55m on the deficit in May.
  • Goods and services credits rose $111m (1%) to $14,660m. Goods and services debits rose $56m to $16,097m.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,371m in June, a decrease of $125m on the deficit in May.
  • Goods and services credits fell $111m (1%) to $14,616m. Non-rural and other goods fell $168m (2%), and rural goods rose $54m (3%). Services credits rose $3m.
  • Goods and services debits fell $236m (1%) to $15,987m. Capital goods fell $203m (7%), consumption goods fell $12m and intermediate and other goods fell $12m. Services debits fell $9m.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original terms, the June balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,154m, an increase of $830m on the deficit in May. Goods and services credits fell $473m (3%) and goods and services debits rose $357m (2%).


2004-05 SITUATION
  • For 2004-05, the balance on goods and services (in original terms) was a deficit of $25.5b. This is an increase of $1.8b on the 2003-04 deficit resulting from a $20.6b (12%) increase in imports and a $18.8b (13%) increase in exports of goods and services.
  • In the year to June, exports of non-rural and other goods were up $16.7b (20%) and rural goods were up $1.1b (5%) on 2003-04.


NOTES



REVISIONS

Revisions were made to incorporate the latest available data relating to merchandise trade and the quarterly Survey of International Trade in Services. In original terms, these revisions have decreased the deficit on goods and services for the eleven months to May 2005 by $260m.



FEATURE ARTICLE

A feature article on Export and Import Invoice Currencies has been released on the ABS web site <http://www.abs.gov.au> concurrently with the release of this publication. This article identifies the major invoice currencies used and analyses changes in their composition over the last five calendar years. Additionally, for the five quarters from March quarter 2004 to March quarter 2005, the article examines currency invoices by selected divisions of the Standard International Trade Classification (Revision 3). To access the article on the web site select: Themes then Economy then International Trade then Topics of Interest.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Tom Jebbink on Canberra (02) 62525540.



ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in June 2005 was a deficit of $1,437m, a decrease of $55m on the revised deficit in May.


In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in June 2005 was a deficit of $1,371m, a decrease of $125m on the revised deficit in May.


The sum of the seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to June 2005 was a deficit of $4,295m, a decrease of $2,823m on the deficit of $7,118m for the three months to March 2005. However, if the more detailed seasonal factors used in compiling quarterly Balance of Payments are applied, the June quarter 2005 deficit was $5,074m, a decrease of $1,649m on the revised March quarter 2005 deficit of $6,723m.



EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $111m (1%) between May and June to $14,660m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $111m (1%) to $14,616m. Non-rural and other goods fell $168m (2%), while rural goods rose $54m (3%) and services credits rose $3m.


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS
Graph: Goods Credits



Rural goods

The trend estimate of rural goods exports rose $24m (1%) to $2,095m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $54m (3%) to $2,139m.


In original terms, exports of rural goods fell $113m (5%) to $2,087m.


The main movement in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms was other rural, down $35m (4%), compared with an average May to June fall of 5% over the previous three years.


Slightly offsetting this effect was wool and sheepskins, down $32m (12%), compared with an average May to June fall of 8% over the previous three years.


Non-rural and other goods

The trend estimate of non-rural and other goods exports rose $106m (1%) to $9,654m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural and other goods fell $168m (2%) to $9,567m.


In original terms, exports of non-rural and other goods fell $518m (5%) to $9,414m.


The fall in the value of exports of non-rural and other goods in original terms is influenced by the fact that the number of effective trading days in June 2005 was lower than that in May 2005. To account for this difference, an adjustment of about 5 percentage points was applied prior to deriving seasonally adjusted estimates.


The following commodity groups had the largest deviation from their three years average movement:

  • other goods, down $321m (37%), compared with an average May to June fall of 1% over the previous three years
  • other mineral fuels, down $147m (14%), in contrast to an average May to June rise of 4% over the previous three years
  • metal ores and minerals, down $37m (2%), in contrast to an average May to June rise of 6% over the previous three years
  • coal, coke and briquettes, down $44m (2%), in contrast to an average May to June rise of 1% over the previous three years
  • metals (excluding gold), up $28m (4%), in contrast to an average May to June fall of 3% over the previous three years
  • other non-rural, up $71m (8%), compared with an average May to June rise of 3% over the previous three years.

Exports of services
SERVICES CREDITS
Graph: Services Credits



In trend terms, services credits fell $19m (1%) to $2,911m.


Seasonally adjusted, services credits rose $3m to $2,910m.


Movements in the seasonally adjusted component contributing to the rise were:

  • travel services, up $10m (1%)
  • transportation services, up $2m.

Largely offsetting these effects was other services, down $9m (1%).


Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services credits rose $17m (1%) to $1,814m.



IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $56m between May and June to $16,097m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $236m (1%) to $15,987m. Capital goods fell $203m (7%), consumption goods fell $12m and intermediate and other goods fell $12m. Services fell $9m.


Preliminary analysis shows that goods imports volumes, in seasonally adjusted terms, increased about 2.9% during the June quarter 2005. The Chain Laspeyres price index rose about 2.3% and the implicit price deflator rose about 2.5%. The final volume and price outcomes will be published in the June quarter 2005 issue of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0)


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS
Graph: GOODS DEBITS



Consumption goods

The trend estimate of imports of consumption goods fell $16m to $3,992m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $12m to $3,987m.


In original terms, imports of consumption goods rose $198m (5%) to $3,882m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • toys, books and leisure goods, down $7m (2%), in contrast to an average May to June rise of 8% over the previous three years
  • household electrical items, down $15m (5%), in contrast to an average May to June rise of 3% over the previous three years
  • textiles, clothing and footwear, up $3m (1%), compared with an average May to June rise of 2% over the previous three years.

Largely offsetting these effects were:
  • non-industrial transport equipment, up $157m (15%), compared with an average May to June rise of 4% over the previous three years
  • consumption goods n.e.s., up $42m (4%), in contrast to an average May to June fall of 3% over the previous three years.

Capital goods

The trend estimate of imports of capital goods rose $12m to $3,009m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $203m (7%) to $2,892m.


In original terms, imports of capital goods rose $147m (5%) to $3,347m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • civil aircraft, up $154m (79%), compared with larger May to June rises over the previous three years
  • machinery and industrial equipment, down $127m (11%), in contrast to an average May to June rise of 3% over the previous three years
  • ADP equipment, up $52m (9%), compared with an average May to June rise of 17% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were:
  • telecommunications equipment, up $40m (11%), in contrast to an average May to June fall of 1% over the previous three years
  • industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up marginally, in contrast to an average May to June fall of 8% over the previous three years.

Intermediate and Other Goods

The trend estimate of imports of intermediate and other goods rose $78m (1%) to $5,996m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, intermediate and other goods imports fell $12m to $6,004m.


In original terms, imports of intermediate and other goods fell $129m (2%) to $5,941m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • other goods, up $12m (3%), compared with an average May to June rise of 19% over the previous three years
  • iron and steel, down $80m (24%), compared with an average May to June fall of 8% over the previous three years
  • other merchandise goods, down $30m (31%), in contrast to an average May to June rise of 6% over the previous three years
  • organic and inorganic chemicals, down $70m (20%), compared with an average May to June fall of 10% over the previous three years.

Largely offsetting these effects were:
  • processed industrial supplies n.e.s., up $46m (4%), in contrast to an average May to June fall of 12% over the previous three years
  • fuels and lubricants, up marginally, in contrast to an average May to June fall of 5% over the previous three years.

Imports of services
SERVICES DEBITS
Graph: SERVICES DEBITS



In trend terms, services debits fell $18m (1%) to $3,100m.


Seasonally adjusted, services debits fell $9m to $3,104m.


The main movement in the seasonally adjusted component contributing to these fall were:

  • other services, down $11m (1%)
  • transportation services, down $7m (2%).

Partly offsetting this effect was travel services, up $9m (1%).


Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services debits rose $13m (1%) to $1,582m.


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