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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jul 2006  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 04/09/2006   
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JULY KEY FIGURES

Jul '06
Jun '06 to Jul '06
Jul '05 to Jul '06
'000
% change
% change

Short-term visitor arrivals
Trend
449.4
-0.7
-1.8
Seasonally adjusted
446.4
-2.9
. .
Original
483.4
. .
. .
Short-term resident departures
Trend(a)
417.6
1.2
4.4
Seasonally adjusted
409.6
-5.6
. .
Original
412.7
. .
. .

. . not applicable
(a) Break in trend series from October 2005.

Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Visitor arrivals Short-term

Resident departures, Short-term
Graph: Resident departures Short-term



JULY KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES

  • Trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during July 2006 (449,400 movements) decreased by 0.7% compared with June 2006. This followed monthly decreases of 0.8% each for May 2006 and June 2006.
  • Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 2.8% lower than when the series last peaked in February 2006 (462,300 movements) and 1.8% lower than in July 2005.
  • During July 2006, short-term resident departures (417,600 movements) increased by 1.2% compared with June 2006. This followed monthly increases of 1.4% for May 2006 and 1.3% for June 2006.
  • The short-term resident departures trend series is now experiencing consistent growth, following a period of stability after the trend break in October 2005.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • Seasonally adjusted estimates for short-term visitor arrivals during July 2006 (446,400 movements) decreased by 2.9% compared with June 2006 and followed a monthly decrease of 3.9% for May 2006 and a monthly increase of 3.5% for June 2006.
  • Short-term resident departures for July 2006 (409,600 movements) decreased by 5.6% compared with June 2006 and followed a monthly decrease of 2.8% for May 2006 and a monthly increase of 6.9% for June 2006.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original movement terms, there were 483,400 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia and 412,700 short-term resident departures from Australia during July 2006.


NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE Release Date
August 2006 5 October 2006
September 2006 6 November 2006
October 2006 5 December 2006
November 2006 11 January 2007
December 2006 6 February 2007
January 2007 7 March 2007



EARLY ESTIMATES

Early estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for August 2006 will be available on the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) web site on 19 September 2006. These estimates can be accessed by going to the ABS web site at <http://www.abs.gov.au>. Select All statistics - Access to all ABS products & statistics, then By Catalogue Number, then 3. Demography, then 34. Migration. Choose Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0.55.001).



DATA NOTES

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


The statistics in this publication have been rounded to the nearest 100 for short-term movements and to the nearest 10 for permanent and long-term movements. As a result, sums of the components may not add exactly to totals. Analysis featured in the Key Points and Main Features of this publication is based on unrounded data. Calculations made on rounded data may differ to those published.



REVISIONS

The seasonally adjusted and trend series have been updated following the annual review of the seasonal adjustment process. This review provides the opportunity to confirm the extent to which movements are due to seasonal or irregular influences. As a result, the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of a small number of series have been revised. Additionally, seasonally adjusted and trend series estimates may show minor revisions due to the usual monthly concurrent adjustments.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.



MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in July 2006 (449,400 movements) were 0.7% lower than in June 2006 and 1.8% lower than in July 2005. Short-term visitor arrivals are currently 2.8% lower than when the series last peaked in February 2006 (462,300 movements).


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during July 2006. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the percentage change in trend compared with June 2006 and July 2005.

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Major Source Countries - July 2006

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jun 06 to Jul 06
Jul 05 to Jul 06
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
88.5
86.2
101.9
-0.8
-3.7
Japan
49.5
50.3
50.4
-1.6
-10.1
United States of America
38.5
37.5
44.9
-0.9
2.3
United Kingdom
57.2
56.3
44.8
-1.6
-2.7
China
25.3
24.8
32.1
-1.0
16.0
Korea
21.2
20.4
23.3
0.3
0.3
Singapore
20.7
22.0
19.0
-0.1
-11.1
Hong Kong
13.3
13.7
17.5
0.4
-3.9
Germany
12.3
11.8
11.8
-1.7
-1.7
Malaysia
11.9
13.0
11.4
0.3
-14.6



SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia in July 2006 (417,600 movements) were 1.2% higher than in June 2006. Following the trend break in October 2005 the series was stable, with consistent increases observed in recent months.


The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during July 2006. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the percentage change in trend compared with June 2006 and July 2005.


A trend break was introduced from October 2005 (see Explanatory Note 22). In original terms, short-term resident departures to Indonesia ranked 4th in September 2005 and fell from the top ten in December 2005. In July 2006 short-term resident departures to Indonesia were ranked in 6th position.

Short-term Resident Departures, Major Destinations - July 2006

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jun 06 to Jul 06
Jul 05 to Jul 06
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
70.0
70.4
62.7
0.1
0.1
United Kingdom
36.8
35.2
42.6
4.4
8.1
United States of America
37.7
39.9
35.7
0.7
5.8
Thailand
24.4
23.9
25.0
1.5
51.9
Singapore
17.6
17.8
18.9
0.2
14.0
Indonesia(a)
16.3
15.4
18.8
0.9
-43.2
Fiji
17.1
16.8
18.5
1.1
5.2
China
22.4
21.6
16.7
2.0
10.7
Malaysia
13.8
13.2
14.1
-1.7
10.2
Hong Kong
15.9
15.3
12.8
-0.7
-5.0

(a) Break in trend series from October 2005.



SHORT-TERM TRAVEL - UNITED KINGDOM

Short-term visitor arrivals

Trend estimates for July 2006 show the number of short-term visitor arrivals from the United Kingdom represented 13% (57,200 movements) of all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia. Over the ten year period to July 2006 the trend has been upwards, although growth over the past two to three years has been relatively slow compared with earlier years. The high point in the series was in March 2006 (60,600 movements) and the low point in July 1996 (30,900 movements). The July 2006 trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals from the United Kingdom was 2% lower than in June 2006 and 3% lower than in July 2005.

United Kingdom, Short-term Visitor Arrivals
Graph: United Kingdom, Short-term Visitor Arrivals



In original terms, short-term visitor arrivals from the United Kingdom in July 2006 stated holiday (52%) as the main reason for journey followed by visiting friends and relatives (29%) and business (8%). In comparison, the main reasons for journey for all short-term visitors to Australia were holiday (48%), visiting friends and relatives (17%) and business and education (each 11%). The median age of short-term visitor arrivals from the United Kingdom was 34 years (also 34 years for all visitors) and the median intended duration of stay was 21 days (11 days for all visitors).


New South Wales (43%), Queensland (24%), Victoria (14%) and Western Australia (13%) were the main states/territories of intended stay for short-term visitors from the United Kingdom in July 2006. The main destinations for all short-term visitors to Australia were New South Wales (38%), Queensland (33%) and Victoria (16%).


Short-term resident departures

Trend estimates for July 2006 show that the number of short-term resident departures to the United Kingdom represented 9% (36,800 movements) of all short-term resident departures. Over the ten year period to July 2006 the trend series has fluctuated. The current month (July 2006) is the high point in the series while the low point was in October 1996 (23,700 movements). The July 2006 trend estimate was 4% higher than in June 2006 and 8% higher than in July 2005.

United Kingdom, Short-term Resident Departures
Graph: United Kingdom, Short-term Resident Departures



In original terms, 47% of Australian residents travelling to the United Kingdom in July 2006 stated holiday as their main reason for journey, followed by visiting friends and relatives (37%) and business (7%). In comparison, the main reasons for journey for all residents departing Australia short-term were holiday (49%), visiting friends and relatives (24%) and business (14%). The median age of residents departing short-term to the United Kingdom was 44 years (41 years for all short-term resident departures) and the median intended duration of stay was 30 days (15 days for all short-term resident departures).



PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 10,300 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during July 2006, an increase of 3.4% compared with July 2005 (9,970 movements). People born in the United Kingdom accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (16%), followed by people born in New Zealand (15%), India (10%) and China (8%).


There were 5,690 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during July 2006, an increase of 3.2% compared with July 2005 (5,510 movements).


Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).



STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates add to the understanding of overseas arrivals and departures (OAD) statistics. Seasonally adjusted estimates allow users to analyse short-term movements including irregular impacts on the series, while trend estimates provide a better method to analyse and monitor the underlying direction of the short-term movement series. In most cases the trend series is the best source of information on the long-term direction of these statistics.



SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Selected source countries

The graph for the United States of America shows the large increase in the seasonally adjusted series for short-term visitor arrivals in September 2000, during the Olympic Games in Sydney. For New Zealand the graph shows, in the trend series, a recent plateau in growth following strong increases which commenced in early 2003. The graph for Japan shows the significant impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) on the seasonally adjusted arrivals series in mid-2003.

United States of America
Graph: United States of America

New Zealand
Graph: New Zealand

Japan
Graph: Japan




SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

Selected destinations

For residents departing to the United States of America the graph illustrates the effect of the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in that country on short-term departures of Australian residents to the United States of America. The graph for New Zealand illustrates that the trend series for departures of Australian residents, which had experienced strong long-term growth, has plateaued since mid 2004. For Indonesia the graph shows the impact of the 12 October 2002 Bali bombing and the reduced level of travel experienced in the next twelve months. The effect of the 1 October 2005 Bali bombing is also evident and another break in the trend series was introduced.

United States of America
Graph: United States of America

New Zealand
Graph: New Zealand

Indonesia
Graph: Indonesia


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