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8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Dec 2005  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 03/02/2006   
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DECEMBER KEY FIGURES

Dec 05
Nov 05 to Dec 05
$m
% change

Turnover at current prices
Trend estimates
17 243.3
0.1
Seasonally adjusted estimates
17 267.1
0.4

Dec Qtr 05
Sep Qtr 05 to Dec Qtr 05
$m
% change

Turnover, in volume terms
Trend estimates
50 663.3
0.3
Seasonally adjusted estimates
50 678.3
0.3

Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - % change
Graph: Monthly turnover, Trend estimate, Percentage change

Quarterly turnover, in volume terms - Trend estimates
Graph: Quarterly turnover, in volume terms—Trend estimates



DECEMBER KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES

  • The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.1% in December 2005. This follows a similar increase of 0.1% in each of the two previous months.
  • In December 2005, the states with the largest increase in the trend estimate were Tasmania (+0.4%), Queensland and the Australian Capital Territory (both +0.3%) while states with a decline were South Australia (-0.3%) and Victoria (-0.2%).


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover increased by 0.4% in December 2005 following a decrease of 0.1% in November and an increase of 0.5% in October 2005.
  • All states, except the Australian Capital Territory, had an increase in the seasonally adjusted estimate. The states with the largest increase were the Northern Territory (+2.2%), South Australia and Tasmania (both +0.7%) and Queensland (+0.6%).


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original terms, Australian turnover increased by 25.5% in December 2005 compared with November 2005. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) increased by 32.0%, while the estimate for 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) increased by 16.9%.
  • Australian turnover increased by 3.9% in December 2005 compared with December 2004. Chains and other large retailers increased by 5.3%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 1.8%.


VOLUME MEASURES
  • The trend volume measure of turnover increased by 0.3% in the December quarter 2005. This follows a 0.4% increase in the September quarter 2005. In seasonally adjusted terms, the volume measure increased by 0.3% in the December quarter 2005.


NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE Release Date
January 2006 2 March 2006
February 2006 31 March 2006
March 2006 8 May 2006
April 2006 30 May 2006
May 2006 3 July 2006
June 2006 2 August 2006



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

Quarterly chain volume data are shown in tables 14 and 15 of this issue.



SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for December 2005 contained in this publication are:

Data Series
Estimate
Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)
22 491.3
175.1
Change from preceding month ($m)
4 570.7
62.3
% change from preceding month (%)
25.5
0.4


For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 32-36.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.



INDUSTRY TRENDS


MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES


TOTAL RETAIL

There has been five months of weak trend growth. Department stores, Clothing and soft good retailing and Recreational good retailing have had a decline in the trend estimate for three or more months. Food retailing and Household good retailing have had weak growth for three and seven months respectively, while Hospitality and services has had moderate or strong growth for 11 months.

Graph: Industry trends_Total retail



FOOD RETAILING

The rate of growth in the trend estimate has been slowing since July 2005 with weak growth for the last three months. In December 2005, New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory had weak growth with all other states having had a decline in the trend estimate.

Graph: Industry trends_Food retailing



DEPARTMENT STORES

There has been a decline in the trend estimate for five months. All published states, except the Australian Capital Territory (no change), had a decline in the trend estimate in December 2005 with New South Wales (nine months) and Victoria (five months) having been in decline the longest.

Graph: Industry trends_Department stores



CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

There has been a decline in the trend estimate for three months. New South Wales, Victoria (both four months), Queensland (one month) and South Australia (two months) have had a decline in the trend estimate.

Graph: Industry trends_Clothing and soft good retailing



HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

There has been weak trend growth for seven months. Victoria and South Australia have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least six months while all other states, except New South Wales, have had at least five months of moderate or strong growth.

Graph: Industry trends_Household good retailing



RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

There has been a decline in the trend estimate for eight months. Queensland, South Australia, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory have had no change or a decline in the trend estimate for three or more months. Victoria has had three months of weak growth while Western Australia and Tasmania have had strong growth for four or more months.

Graph: Industry trends_Recreational good retailing



OTHER RETAILING

After a decline in the trend estimate for 13 months, there was no change in December 2005. Victoria (seven months), Western Australia (14 months) and the Australian Capital Territory (two months) have had a decline in the trend estimate. After 16 months of no change or a decline in the trend estimate New South Wales had weak growth in December 2005.

Graph: Industry trends_Other retailing



TOTAL RETAIL (EXCLUDING HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES)

Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has had no change for three months. Over the last eight months, the rate of trend growth for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has been slower than Total industries (including Hospitality and services).

Graph: Industry trends_Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services)



HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

There has been 11 months of moderate or strong growth. New South Wales, Queensland and the Northern Territory have had strong growth for three, 12 and five months respectively, while Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia have had a decline in the trend estimate for three or more months.

Graph: Industry trends_Hospitality and services



STATE TRENDS


MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES


NEW SOUTH WALES

There has been weak trend growth for more than 12 months. Department stores and Clothing and soft good retailing have had a decline in the trend estimate for nine and four months respectively. The rate of growth in the Food industry has been slowing since August 2005 with weak growth in December 2005.

Graph: State trends_New South Wales



VICTORIA

There has been a decline in the trend estimate for five months. Food retailing and Recreational good retailing have had weak trend growth for two and three months respectively. All other industries have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least three months with Other retailing (seven months) and Household good retailing (six months) having been in decline the longest.

Graph: State trends_Victoria



QUEENSLAND

After nine months of moderate growth in the trend, there was weak growth in December 2005. Department stores, Clothing and soft good retailing and Recreational good retailing have had a decline in the trend estimate for four, two and eight months respectively. Growth in the trend estimate for Food retailing has been slowing since July 2005 with a decline in the trend estimate in December 2005.

Graph: State trends_Queensland



SOUTH AUSTRALIA

There has been a decline in the trend estimate for four months. All industries, except Other retailing, had a decline in the trend estimate in December 2005. Household good retailing (11 months), Hospitality and services (six months) and Department stores (four months) have been in decline the longest.

Graph: State trends_South Australia



WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Growth in the trend estimate has been slowing since July 2005, with no change in the trend in December 2005. Food retailing, Department stores, Other retailing and Hospitality and services have had a decline in the trend estimate for one, four, 14 and four months respectively. All other industries have had moderate or strong growth for at least three months.

Graph: State trends_Western Australia



TASMANIA

There has been moderate growth in the trend estimate for three months. Household good retailing and Recreational good retailing having had strong growth for seven and ten months respectively. Clothing and soft good retailing and Hospitality and services had moderate growth in December 2005.

Graph: State trends_Tasmania

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