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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Oct 2006  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 05/12/2006   
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OCTOBER KEY FIGURES

Oct '06
Sep '06 to Oct '06
Oct '05 to Oct '06
'000
% change
% change

Short-term visitor arrivals
Trend
460.3
0.7
0.9
Seasonally adjusted
467.2
0.9
. .
Original
476.2
. .
. .
Short-term resident departures
Trend(a)
417.0
-0.1
5.9
Seasonally adjusted
423.7
2.9
. .
Original
391.0
. .
. .

. . not applicable
(a) Break in trend series from October 2005.

Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Visitor arrivals Short-term

Resident departures, Short-term
Graph: Resident departures Short-term



OCTOBER KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES

  • Trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during October 2006 (460,300 movements) increased by 0.7% compared with September 2006. This followed monthly increases of 0.4% for August 2006 and 0.6% for September 2006.
  • Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 1.7% higher than when the series last troughed in June 2006 (452,600 movements) and 0.9% higher than in October 2005.
  • During October 2006, short-term resident departures (417,000 movements) were marginally lower than in September 2006. This followed monthly increases of 0.4% for August 2006 and 0.3% for September 2006.
  • The marginal decrease in short-term resident departures in October 2006 followed eight months of growth, which slowed in recent months. A break in series was introduced in October 2005 following the Bali bombing in that month.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • Seasonally adjusted estimates for short-term visitor arrivals during October 2006 (467,200 movements) increased by 0.9% compared with September 2006 and followed a monthly decrease of 0.2% for August 2006 and a monthly increase of 3.5% for September 2006.
  • Short-term resident departures for October 2006 (423,700 movements) increased by 2.9% compared with September 2006 and followed a monthly increase of 0.3% for August 2006 and a minimal decrease for September 2006.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original movement terms, there were 476,200 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia and 391,000 short-term resident departures from Australia during October 2006.


NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE Release Date
November 2006 11 January 2007
December 2006 6 February 2007
January 2007 7 March 2007
February 2007 5 April 2007
March 2007 9 May 2007
April 2007 5 June 2007



EARLY ESTIMATES

Early estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for November 2006 will be available on the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) web site on 18 December 2006. These estimates can be accessed by going to the ABS web site at <http://www.abs.gov.au>. Select All statistics - Access to all ABS products & statistics, then By Catalogue Number, then 3. Demography, then 34. Migration. Choose Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0.55.001).



DATA NOTES

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


The statistics in this publication have been rounded to the nearest 100 for short-term movements and to the nearest 10 for permanent and long-term movements. As a result, sums of the components may not add exactly to totals. Analysis featured in the Key Points and Main Features of this publication is based on unrounded data. Calculations made on rounded data may differ to those published.



CHANGES IN THE ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.



MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in October 2006 (460,300 movements) were 0.7% higher than in September 2006 and 0.9% higher than in October 2005. Short-term visitor arrivals are currently 1.7% higher than when the series last troughed in June 2006 (452,600 movements).


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during October 2006. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the percentage change in trend compared with September 2006 and October 2005.

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Major Source Countries - October 2006

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Sep 06 to Oct 06
Oct 05 to Oct 06
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
87.2
88.8
97.0
-0.1
-3.3
United Kingdom
56.6
57.7
60.4
0.1
-2.3
Japan
55.3
55.5
55.0
2.0
-5.7
United States of America
37.3
36.9
33.3
-0.5
2.9
China
27.4
27.8
23.9
1.7
14.3
Korea
24.2
25.1
23.4
3.0
21.8
Singapore
23.3
22.3
20.9
1.6
5.4
Malaysia
12.4
13.9
15.2
0.7
-7.6
Germany
11.8
11.7
15.1
-1.6
-4.7
Indonesia
6.9
6.8
12.7
1.1
-0.4



SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia in October 2006 (417,000 movements) were marginally lower than in September 2006 (417,300 movements). This followed a slowing in the rate of growth in recent months after a period of consistent growth shortly after the trend break in October 2005.


The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during October 2006. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the percentage change in trend compared with September 2006 and October 2005.


A trend break was introduced from October 2005 (see Explanatory Note 22). In original terms, short-term resident departures to Indonesia ranked 4th in September 2005 and fell from the top ten in December 2005. In October 2006 (the first anniversary of the October 2005 Bali bombing) short-term resident departures to Indonesia were ranked in 9th position.

Short-term Resident Departures, Major Destinations - October 2006

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Sep 06 to Oct 06
Oct 05 to Oct 06
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
75.3
76.7
68.6
1.2
7.8
United States of America
37.5
38.2
34.9
0.3
1.9
Thailand
23.9
23.9
30.6
-0.3
25.8
United Kingdom
35.0
34.6
25.8
-1.3
4.1
China
21.4
21.9
25.5
-1.3
6.4
Fiji
17.9
18.6
21.5
0.4
7.9
Hong Kong
17.6
17.9
17.5
2.2
12.5
Singapore
16.9
17.4
16.2
-
2.4
Indonesia(a)
13.7
13.7
15.4
-3.5
-20.7
Malaysia
13.2
13.7
13.2
-
-0.9

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Break in trend series from October 2005.



SHORT-TERM TRAVEL - CANADA

Short-term visitor arrivals

Trend estimates for October 2006 show the number of short-term visitor arrivals from Canada represented 2% (9,200 movements) of all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia. Over the ten year period to October 2006 the trend, while fluctuating, has been upward. The high point during this period was in April 2006 (9,500 movements) and the low point was in October 1996 (4,900). The October 2006 trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals from Canada was similar to September 2006 and 9% higher than in October 2005.

CANADA, Short-term Visitor Arrivals
Graph: Canada, Short-term Visitor Arrivals



In original terms, short-term visitor arrivals from Canada in October 2006 stated holiday (47%) as their main reason for journey followed by visiting friends and relatives (29%) and business (11%). In comparison, the main reasons for journey for all short-term visitors to Australia were holiday (53%), visiting friends and relatives (19%) and business (12%). The median age of short-term visitor arrivals from Canada was 47 years (41 years for all visitors) and the median intended duration of stay was 20 days (10 days for all visitors).


New South Wales (46%), Queensland (22%) and Victoria (18%) were the main states/territories of intended stay for short-term visitors from Canada in October 2006. The main destinations for all short-term visitors to Australia were New South Wales (39%), Queensland (28%) and Victoria (17%).


Short-term resident departures

Trend estimates for October 2006 show that the number of short-term resident departures to Canada represented 2% (8,100 movements) of all short-term resident departures. Between October 1996 and October 2006 the trend series, while fluctuating, was upwards. In March 2003 the series fell abruptly (to 5,100 movements) but quickly regained its upwards momentum. This fall coincided with the anticipation and commencement of military action in Iraq and the emergence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). The highest points in the series over the past ten years were recorded between June 2006 and October 2006 (each 8,100 movements) while the low point was in January 1997 (3,900 movements). The October 2006 trend estimate was similar to September 2006 and 12% higher than in October 2005.

CANADA, Short-term Resident Departures
Graph: Canada, Short-term Resident Departures



In original terms, short-term resident departures to Canada in October 2006 stated holiday (40%) as their main reason for journey followed by visiting friends and relatives (27%) and business (15%). In comparison, the main reasons for journey for all residents departing Australia short-term were holiday (47%), visiting friends and relatives (21%) and business (19%). The median age of residents departing short-term to Canada was 41 years (43 years for all short-term resident departures) and the median intended duration of stay was 17 days (14 days for all short-term resident departures).



PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 11,470 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during October 2006, an increase of 3.7% compared with October 2005 (11,050 movements). People born in the United Kingdom accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (20%), followed by people born in New Zealand (15%), India (9%) and China (7%).


There were 5,010 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during October 2006, an increase of 1.8% compared with October 2005 (4,920 movements).


Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).



STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates add to the understanding of overseas arrivals and departures (OAD) statistics. Seasonally adjusted estimates allow users to analyse short-term movements including irregular impacts on the series, while trend estimates provide a better method to analyse and monitor the underlying direction of the short-term movement series. In most cases the trend series is the best source of information on the long-term direction of these statistics.



SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Selected source countries

The graph for the United States of America shows the large increase in the seasonally adjusted series for short-term visitor arrivals in September 2000, during the Olympic Games in Sydney. For New Zealand the graph shows a small decline in the trend series following the recent plateau in growth after strong increases which commenced in early 2003. The graph for Japan shows the significant impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) on the seasonally adjusted arrivals series in mid-2003.

United States of America
Graph: United States of America
New Zealand
Graph: New Zealand
Japan
Graph: Japan




SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

Selected destinations

For residents departing to the United States of America the graph illustrates the effect of the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in that country on short-term departures of Australian residents to the United States of America. The graph for New Zealand indicates that the trend series for departures of Australian residents continues to increase after a plateau since mid-2004. For Indonesia the graph shows the impact of the 12 October 2002 Bali bombing and the reduced level of travel experienced in the next twelve months. The effect of the 1 October 2005 Bali bombing is also evident and another break in the trend series was introduced.

United States of America
Graph: United States of America
New Zealand
Graph: New Zealand
Indonesia
Graph: Indonesia


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