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8731.0 - Building Approvals, Australia, Jun 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 30/07/2004   
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JUNE KEY FIGURES

Jun 04
May 04 to Jun 04
Jun 03 to Jun 04
no.
% change
% change

Trend

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses
9,364
-0.4
-6.4
Total dwelling units
14,650
0.2
-0.4

Seasonally Adjusted

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses
9,425
2.0
-10.9
Total dwelling units
14,713
1.5
-1.5

Dwelling units approved, Total number
Graph: Total number of Dwelling units approved

Private sector houses approved, Total number
Graph: Total number of Private sector houses approved



JUNE KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES

  • The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved rose 0.2% in June 2004, the fourth consecutive monthly rise.
  • The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.4% in June 2004. The trend has now fallen for nine consecutive months.
  • The trend estimate for other dwellings approved has risen for the last six months, rising 0.9% in June 2004.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwelling units approved rose 1.5%, to 14,713, in June 2004.
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector houses approved rose 2.0%, to 9,425, in June 2004.
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for other dwellings approved fell 0.5%, to 5,042, in June 2004.
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building approved fell 6.5%, to $4,251.8m, in June 2004.


NOTES


CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates have been revised in this issue as a result of the annual reanalysis of seasonal factors. As advised in the last issue, this includes some changes to the method of aggregation used for seasonal adjustment. The value of Non-Residential building time series has been assessed to be non-seasonal. Tables 13,14 and 24, and corresponding time series spreadsheets, have been revised and no longer include the seasonally adjusted value of Non-Residential building. Additional information on the seasonal adjustment methods applied to Building Approvals time series is available on request by contacting the ABS Time Series Analysis section on telephone (02) 6252 6345 or email timeseries@abs.gov.au.



REVISIONS THIS MONTH

Revisions have been made to total dwelling units in this issue:

2002-03
2003-04
TOTAL

New South Wales
-
156
156
Victoria
3
-55
-52
Queensland
2
89
91
South Australia
-
-10
-10
Western Australia
-
17
17
Tasmania
-
-
-
Northern Territory
-
-
-
Australian Capital Territory
-
-
-
TOTAL
5
197
202



DATA NOTES

Estimates have been included in this issue for five councils unable to report all building work approved in their municipalities this month (Lake Macquarie and Parramatta in New South Wales, Noosa in Queensland, Adelaide Hills in South Australia, and Melville in Western Australia).

Two new articles ‘Focus on the South Australian Construction Industry’ and ‘Focus on the Tasmanian Construction Industry’ are available from the ABS website.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Andrea Woods on Adelaide (08) 8237 7350.



SUMMARY COMMENTARY


VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVED

NEW RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

The trend estimate of the value of new residential building has risen slowly over the last seven months, rising 0.4% in June 2004.

Graph: New residential building


ALTERATIONS AND ADDITIONS TO RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

The trend estimate of the value of alterations and additions to residential building is now showing a rise over the last three months, following six months of decline. The trend rose 0.7% in June 2004.

Graph: Alterations and additions to residential buildings


NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

The trend estimate of the value of non-residential building has fallen for the last ten months. The trend fell 3.5% in June 2004.

Graph: Value of non-residential buildings approved



SUMMARY OF 2003-2004 BUILDING APPROVALS

DWELLING UNITS APPROVED

The total number of dwelling units approved in 2003-04 was 179,690, a rise of 1.1% from the previous year. Houses rose 3.3%, rising in all states and territories except New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory. Other dwellings fell 3.2%, with falls in New South Wales and Victoria offsetting rises in other states and territories.

HOUSES
OTHER DWELLINGS
TOTAL DWELLING UNITS
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change

NSW
23,434
-5.4
23,379
-5.2
46,813
-5.3
Vic.
34,587
3.2
11,853
-19.3
46,440
-3.7
Qld
29,350
7.3
14,442
4.2
43,792
6.2
SA
9,059
5.3
2,455
10.5
11,514
6.4
WA
19,508
8.1
4,131
10.4
23,639
8.5
Tas.
2,697
36.7
446
159.3
3,143
46.5
NT
588
13.5
625
44.7
1,213
27.7
ACT
1,373
-27.3
1,763
37.6
3,136
-1.1
Aust.
120,596
3.3
59,094
-3.2
179,690
1.1


VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVED

The value of total building approved in 2003-04 was $52,364.0 million, an increase of 4.5% from the previous year. Residential building rose 9.5% with rises in all states and territories. Non-residential building fell 5.0%, with rises only in Queensland, South Australia and the Northern Territory.

Total residential building
Total non-residential building
Total building
$m
% change
$m
% change
$m
% change

NSW
10,208.5
4.2
5,023.0
-13.6
15,231.5
-2.5
Vic.
10,128.0
2.4
4,763.9
-5.4
14,891.9
-0.2
Qld
8,684.4
19.6
3,165.5
6.4
11,849.9
15.8
SA
1,831.0
10.6
1,154.9
14.3
2,985.8
12.0
WA
3,820.0
15.1
1,466.4
-5.5
5,286.4
8.5
Tas.
554.2
70.7
187.0
-7.2
741.3
40.9
NT
266.3
37.6
167.9
11.0
434.3
25.9
ACT
622.0
13.8
320.9
-12.0
942.9
3.5
Aust.
36,114.4
9.5
16,249.5
-5.0
52,364.0
4.5



DWELLING UNITS APPROVED - STATES AND TERRITORIES

SUMMARY COMMENTS

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved rose 0.2% in June 2004. The trend fell in New South Wales (-1.1%), Victoria (-0.1%), and Queensland (-0.1%), rising in other states and territories.

The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.4% in June 2004. The trend fell in Queensland (-3.3%) and Western Australia (-0.6%), but rose in all other states.

NSW
Vic.
Qld
SA
WA
Tas.
NT
ACT
Aust.

Original

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses (no.)
2,097
2,924
2,202
830
1,567
197
32
73
9,922
Total dwelling units (no.)
3,697
3,637
3,813
1,081
2,156
234
139
193
14,950
Percentage change from previous month
Private sector houses (%)
12.6
6.0
2.2
28.3
-6.9
-12.4
14.3
-33.6
4.8
Total dwelling units (%)
-4.6
-8.2
25.6
23.5
-0.5
-23.8
4.5
-73.7
-0.9

Seasonally Adjusted

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses (no.)
1,963
2,775
2,075
762
1,512
na
na
na
9,425
Total dwelling units (no.)
3,937
3,488
3,624
1,013
2,049
244
na
na
14,713
Percentage change from previous month
Private sector houses (%)
10.3
1.2
-0.9
18.4
-6.7
na
na
na
2.0
Total dwelling units (%)
10.2
-11.7
26.0
16.3
-0.4
-22.8
na
na
1.5

Trend

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses (no.)
1,881
2,752
2,093
701
1,569
na
na
na
9,364
Total dwelling units (no.)
3,859
3,682
3,335
906
2,041
292
127
288
14,650
Percentage change from previous month
Private sector houses (%)
0.6
0.9
-3.3
1.1
-0.6
na
na
na
-0.4
Total dwelling units (%)
-1.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.6
0.6
2.1
8.5
5.5
0.2

na not available



DWELLING UNITS APPROVED

STATE TRENDS

NEW SOUTH WALES

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in New South Wales is now showing falls over the last three months, following four months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has risen slowly for the last three months.

Graph: Dwelling units approved - NSW


VICTORIA

The trend estimate for total dwelling units in Victoria fell in June 2004, following three relatively flat months. The trend for private sector houses approved is now showing slight growth for the last two months.

Graph: Dwelling units approved - VIC


QUEENSLAND

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in Queensland has fallen for the last nine months, following six months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last eight months.

Graph: Dwelling unit approvals in Qld


SOUTH AUSTRALIA

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in South Australia is now showing growth over the last two months. The trend for private sector houses is now showing growth over the last three months.

Graph: Dwelling unit approvals in SA


WESTERN AUSTRALIA

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in Western Australia is now showing growth over the last nine months. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last three months.

Graph: Dwelling unit approvals in WA


WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent months become available. The approximate effect of possible scenarios on trend estimates are presented below. Generally, the greater the volatility of the original series, the larger the size of the revisions to trend estimates. Analysis of the building approval original series has shown that they can be revised substantially. As a result, some months can elapse before turning points in the trend series are reliably identified.

The graphs and tables which follow present the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates: that the July seasonally adjusted estimate is higher than the June estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 14% for other dwelling units approved; and that the July seasonally adjusted estimate is lower than the June estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 14% for other dwelling units approved. These percentages represent the average absolute monthly percentage change for these series over the last ten years.


PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES APPROVED

Graph: Private sector houses approved

WHAT IF NEXT MONTH‘S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
TREND AS PUBLISHED
(1) rises by 4% on Jun 2004
(2) falls by 4% on Jun 2004
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change

2004
February
9,651
-1.5
9,633
-1.6
9,656
-1.5
March
9,543
-1.1
9,534
-1.0
9,545
-1.1
April
9,465
-0.8
9,490
-0.5
9,459
-0.9
May
9,403
-0.7
9,479
-0.1
9,379
-0.8
June
9,364
-0.4
9,490
0.1
9,301
-0.8
July
-
-
9,530
0.4
9,244
-0.6

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)


OTHER DWELLINGS

Graph: Other dwelling units approved

WHAT IF NEXT MONTH‘S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
TREND AS PUBLISHED
(1) rises by 14% on Jun 2004
(2) falls by 14% on Jun 2004
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change

2004
February
4,728
1.7
4,705
1.5
4,750
2.0
March
4,845
2.5
4,832
2.7
4,855
2.2
April
4,959
2.4
4,989
3.2
4,930
1.5
May
5,061
2.1
5,130
2.8
4,936
0.1
June
5,109
0.9
5,259
2.5
4,894
-0.9
July
-
-
5,376
2.2
4,824
-1.4

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

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