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3401.0.55.001 - Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia, Nov 2005  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 19/12/2005   
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NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE Release Date
December 2005 19 January 2006
January 2006 17 February 2006
February 2006 16 March 2006
March 2006 21 April 2006
April 2006 17 May 2006
May 2006 20 June 2006



DATA NOTES

The estimates presented in this publication provide an early indication of short-term visitor arrival movements prior to final data becoming available for the reference month. Monthly data prior to the reference month are final estimates. The ABS encourages users of these data to refer to the ABS monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0) for final ABS estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for the reference period. Final estimates for November 2005 will be released on 12 January 2006.


This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 6 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


Calculations of percentage and numeric change as shown in the Main Features of this publication are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 10 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


Original estimates are influenced by seasonal and one-off or irregular factors which may distort interpretations of the underlying growth in the series. Therefore, the ABS encourages the use of the trend estimates for time series analysis. See the Demography Working Paper 2004/2 - Interpretation and Use of Overseas Arrivals and Departures Estimates (cat. no. 3106.0.55.002).


Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates are subject to revision, particularly at the current end of the series, due to additional original information becoming available. See paragraphs 14 and 17 of the Explanatory Notes.



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.



MAIN FEATURES


TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia for November 2005 (455,000 movements) decreased by 0.3% compared with October 2005 (456,200 movements). This followed little change for September 2005, when the series last peaked, and a decrease of 0.2% for October 2005.


Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 1.1% higher than in November 2004.



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia for November 2005 (444,000 movements) decreased by 3.4% compared with October 2005 (459,700 movements). This followed a monthly decrease of 1.9% for September 2005 and a monthly increase of 0.6% for October 2005.

Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Visitor arrivals Short-term




ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original movement terms there were an estimated 474,800 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during November 2005.

TABLE 1: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT(a), VISITOR ARRIVALS - November 2005

Nov 05
Oct 05 to Nov 05
Nov 04 to Nov 05
'000
% change
% change

Trend
455.0
-0.3
1.1
Seasonally adjusted
444.0
-3.4
. .
Original
474.8
. .
. .

. . not applicable
(a) Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates may be revised each month. See paragraphs 14 and 17 of Explanatory Notes.

TABLE 2: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT(a), VISITOR ARRIVALS - Country of Residence(b)

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original



Oct 05
Nov 05
Oct 05 to Nov 05
Nov 04 to Nov 05
Oct 05
Nov 05
Oct 05 to Nov 05
Nov 05
Country of residence
'000
'000
% change
% change
'000
'000
% change
'000

OCEANIA & ANTARCTICA
New Zealand
88.8
87.8
-1.1
-0.8
92.6
82.2
-11.3
80.8
Total
99.6
98.5
-1.1
-0.3
102.9
92.8
-9.9
91.6
NORTH-WEST EUROPE
Germany
12.3
12.2
-1.1
1.5
11.9
12.1
1.0
13.9
Netherlands
4.1
4.1
-0.1
1.9
4.0
4.2
5.6
5.4
Sweden
2.9
2.9
-1.4
0.3
2.9
2.8
-1.9
3.8
Switzerland
3.4
3.3
-1.6
-3.5
3.6
3.2
-12.0
4.0
United Kingdom
56.3
55.3
-1.7
-2.2
57.2
52.4
-8.4
63.8
Total
96.0
94.6
-1.5
-0.8
96.3
91.4
-5.1
109.5
SOUTHERN & EASTERN EUROPE
Italy
4.1
4.1
-0.3
-2.1
4.3
4.0
-7.2
4.0
Total
9.9
10.0
1.0
1.6
10.0
10.2
1.9
12.3
NORTH AFRICA & THE MIDDLE EAST
Total
7.1
7.6
7.1
41.4
6.3
9.3
48.0
8.1
SOUTH-EAST ASIA
Indonesia
7.9
8.3
4.9
23.1
9.6
7.9
-17.6
7.0
Malaysia
13.9
13.8
-1.1
-9.2
18.1
12.0
-33.5
14.9
Philippines
3.0
3.0
1.8
16.0
3.1
3.2
2.9
2.9
Singapore
21.5
20.8
-3.5
-6.4
23.4
17.6
-24.7
24.8
Thailand
6.4
6.4
-1.1
-2.7
6.2
6.3
1.3
4.6
Total
55.4
54.9
-0.9
-0.9
62.8
49.9
-20.7
56.8
NORTH-EAST ASIA
China
24.0
24.8
3.5
5.2
22.1
27.3
23.4
28.9
Japan
59.6
60.8
2.0
-2.9
56.8
60.6
6.8
64.7
Korea
20.4
20.2
-1.0
8.8
20.9
19.8
-5.4
22.6
Taiwan
9.5
9.4
-0.5
10.3
8.9
9.0
2.0
6.3
Total
127.0
128.6
1.3
2.2
121.6
130.4
7.2
134.0
AMERICAS
Canada
8.2
8.1
-1.3
-2.7
7.8
8.0
3.4
9.9
United States of America
35.9
35.2
-1.8
-2.8
35.4
34.2
-3.2
35.0
Total
47.1
46.4
-1.5
-1.6
46.1
45.4
-1.7
47.8
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
South Africa
4.3
4.4
1.4
7.9
4.1
4.6
11.4
5.2
Total
6.0
6.1
1.7
11.6
5.6
6.2
10.0
7.0
Total(c)
456.2
455.0
-0.3
1.1
459.7
444.0
-3.4
474.8

(a) This table presents a summary of the most recent overseas arrivals and departures estimates. Time series data for months earlier than those presented in this table are available as AusStats time series spreadsheets.
(b) Data for the current month are statistically modelled on passport movements and past arrival trends from passenger cards. Monthly data prior to the current month are estimates based on passenger card data.
(c) Includes Southern and Central Asia and not stated/inadequately described.


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