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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jul 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 14/09/2004   
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FEATURE ARTICLE - Interpretation and Use of Overseas Arrivals and Departures Estimates

KEY FIGURES


Jun 04
Jul 03
Jul
to Jul
to Jul
04
04
04
%
%
'000
change
change
Short-term visitor arrivals

Trend
435.2
0.9
. .
Seasonally adjusted
440.9
1.9
. .
Original
472.0
. .
13.6
Short-term resident departures
Trend
362.0
0.8
. .
Seasonally adjusted
363.3
-0.1
. .
Original
379.5
. .
28.0


Graph: Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Resident departures, short-term


KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES
  • The trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during July 2004 (435,200 movements) increased by 0.9% compared with June 2004. This followed revised increases of 0.6% for May and 0.8% for June 2004.
  • Short-term resident departures continued the steady monthly increase in the series since April 2003. The trend estimate for July 2004 (362,000 movements) represents an increase of 0.8% compared with the previous month and followed increases of 1.0% for both May and June 2004.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate of short-term visitor arrivals for July 2004 (440,900 movements) increased by 1.9% compared with June 2004. This followed revised increases of 0.5% for May and 1.4% for June 2004.
  • Short-term resident departures for July 2004 (363,300 movements) decreased by 0.1% compared with June 2004 and followed a decrease of 5.4% for May and an increase of 5.6% for June 2004.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original terms there were 472,000 short-term visitor arrival movements to Australia during July 2004, representing an increase of 13.6% compared with July 2003 (415,500 movements).
  • There were 379,500 short-term resident departures for July 2004, an increase of 28.0% compared with July 2003 (296,500 movements).
  • Original estimates are influenced by seasonal and one-off irregular factors which can distort interpretations of the underlying growth in the series. Therefore, the ABS encourages the use of the trend estimates for time series analysis.


NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUERELEASE DATE
August 200414 October 2004
September 200415 November 2004
October 200413 December 2004
November 200414 January 2005
December 200416 February 2005
January 200515 March 2005


EARLY ESTIMATES

Early estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for August 2004 will be available on the ABS web site on 16 September 2004. These estimates can be accessed by going to the AusStats web page <http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats> and selecting Publications & Data and then Main Features. Select 34 Migration and then Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0.55.001).


DATA NOTES

For data quality issues see the Appendix of this publication.

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

Calculations of percentage and numeric change as shown in the Key Points and Main Features of this publication are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 11 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE
  • The Standard Errors section has been updated and presents sample standard errors for movements up to 5 million.
  • Passenger card samples during the period July 2001 to June 2004 were not completely random. As of this issue the passenger card processing system has returned to a fully random sample. See the paragraph on sampling method in the Appendix


FORTHCOMING CHANGES

As of the August 2004 issue of this publication (to be released 14 October 2004) the following changes will occur:
  • The presentation of information on countries will be based on the Standard Australian Classification of Countries (SACC). This will replace the currently used Australian Standard Classification of Countries for Social Statistics (ASCCSS). For more detailed information refer to the ABS publication Standard Australian Classification of Countries (SACC), 1998 (cat. no. 1269.0).
  • Four new tables will be included in this publication. These tables will present trend and seasonally adjusted estimates for short-term visitor arrivals by country of residence and short-term resident departures by country of destination. As a result of these additional tables, the current table numbers will change.
  • The lists of countries in tables 3, 5 and 8 will be revised to reflect current trends. Due to space considerations, there will be fewer countries printed in current tables 3 and 5 of this publication. Expanded lists of countries for these tables will be available electronically under Time Series Spreadsheets.

For more information about these forthcoming changes, contact Chrissy Beruldsen on (02) 6252 5640 or email c.beruldsen@abs.gov.au.


ABBREVIATIONS

ABSAustralian Bureau of Statistics
ASCCSSAustralian Standard Classification of Countries for Social Statistics
DIMIADepartment of Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs
NZNew Zealand
OADOverseas Arrivals and Departures Collection
SARSpecial Administrative Region
TRIPSTravel and Immigration Processing System


INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Chrissy Beruldsen on Canberra (02) 6252 5640 or email c.beruldsen@abs.gov.au.


MAIN FEATURES

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals have recorded steady monthly increases since April 2004. Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 3% (or 11,200 movements) higher than when the series last troughed in March 2004 (424,000 movements).

The following table presents the top ten source countries, in original terms, for short-term visitor arrivals during July 2004, along with percentage and numeric change compared with July 2003.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Major Source Countries - July 2004

July
July
Numeric
Percentage
2004
2003
change
change
'000
'000
'000
%

New Zealand
108.1
82.9
25.2
30.4
Japan
57.0
45.7
11.3
24.8
United Kingdom
45.3
45.0
0.3
0.7
United States of America
45.0
44.6
0.4
0.9
China
26.4
11.3
15.0
132.6
Korea
19.9
21.0
-1.1
-5.5
Singapore
16.9
18.9
-2.0
-10.5
Hong Kong (SAR of China)
14.4
13.3
1.1
8.0
Malaysia
13.1
14.4
-1.4
-9.5
Germany
11.6
12.8
-1.1
-8.8



SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures have recorded consecutive monthly increases since April 2003. Since January 2004, the average monthly growth rate has been around 1%. However, recent estimates indicate that this growth rate is slowing. Currently, short-term resident departures are 27% (or 76,700 movements) higher than when the series last troughed in March 2003 (285,300 movements).

The following table presents the top ten destinations, in original terms, for short-term resident departures during July 2004, along with percentage and numeric change compared with July 2003.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Major Destinations - July 2004

July
July
Numeric
Percentage
2004
2003
change
change
'000
'000
'000
%

New Zealand
69.5
50.5
19.0
37.7
United Kingdom
36.8
30.4
6.4
21.1
Indonesia
34.3
18.0
16.3
90.9
United States of America
27.9
25.4
2.5
9.8
Thailand
16.0
9.3
6.8
72.9
Fiji
15.5
15.4
0.1
0.4
Singapore
14.5
13.1
1.5
11.1
Malaysia
13.3
9.5
3.8
39.8
China
12.2
6.2
6.0
96.5
Hong Kong (SAR of China)
10.9
8.3
2.6
31.8



PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 10,200 permanent (settler) arrivals into Australia during July 2004, an increase of 5% compared with July 2003 (9,750 movements). Settlers born in the United Kingdom accounted for the largest proportion (12%), followed by China and New Zealand (11%).

Statistics on OAD relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Therefore, care should be taken when using long-term arrivals data as it is known some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term arrivals in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).

There were 4,940 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during July 2004, an increase of 6% compared with July 2003 (4,670 movements).

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section.

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