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5368.0 - International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, May 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 29/06/2004   
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MAY KEY FIGURES

March 2004
April 2004
May 2004
Apr 04 to May 04
$m
$m
$m
% change

Trend

Balance on goods & services
-1,920
-1,900
-1,861
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
12,042
12,244
12,452
2
Debits (imports of goods & services)
13,962
14,144
14,313
1

Seasonally Adjusted

Balance on goods & services
-2,033
-1,838
-1,840
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
11,648
12,452
12,879
3
Debits (imports of goods & services)
13,681
14,290
14,719
3

. . not applicable

Balance on goods and services
Graph: Balance on goods and services



MAY KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES
  • The provisional trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,861m in May 2004, a decrease of $39m on the deficit in April.
  • Goods and services credits rose $208m (2%) to $12,452m. Goods and services debits rose $169m (1%) to $14,313m.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,840m in May, an increase of $2m on the deficit in April.
  • Goods and services credits rose $427m (3%) to $12,879m, with goods credits up $438m (5%) and services credits down $11m. Rural goods rose $238m (11%) and non-rural and other goods rose $200m (3%).
  • Goods and services debits rose $429m (3%) to $14,719m, with goods debits up $374m (3%) and services debits up $55m (2%). Consumption goods rose $170m (5%), intermediate and other goods rose $155m (3%) and capital goods rose $49m (2%).


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original terms, the May balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,481m, a decrease of $362m on the deficit in April. Goods and services credits rose $537m (4%) and goods and services debits rose $175m (1%).
  • In the eleven months to May, exports of non-rural and other goods were down $6.5b (8%) and rural goods were down $1.9b (8%) on the corresponding period in 2002-03.


NOTES



REVISIONS

In original terms, revisions since the previous issue have increased the deficit on goods and services for the ten months to April 2004 by $149m. The revision to the April 2004 estimate was an increase on the deficit of $26m.


The revisions are the result of incorporating the latest available data relating to merchandise trade and the quarterly Survey of International Trade in Services.



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

Some changes to the content of this publication have been introduced. These changes include the addition of a new table, providing seasonally adjusted and trend estimates for services credits and debits. The additional table has been inserted as Table 6, which has resulted in the existing table numbers (Tables 6 through to 11) in this publication and in the electronic release of this publication to be re-numbered as Tables 7 through to 12. The numbering of the AusStats tables has also changed, and is consistent with this publication. All data previously available from AusStats and Time Series Spreadsheets continue to be available.



NEW PUBLICATION AND FEATURE ARTICLES

A new publication on Foreign Ownership of Australian Exporters and Importers and feature articles on Australian Outward Foreign Affiliates Trade, Australia's Exporters and Australia's Importers have been released. Details are provided on page four of this publication.



CAUTIONARY NOTE

The tables in this publication are presented on two bases. Tables 1-7 contain estimates of Australia's international trade in goods and services which have been adjusted for coverage, valuation and timing to a balance of payments basis. Tables 8-11 contain estimates of merchandise exports and imports based on Australian Customs Service records. Paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes provides an explanation of the difference between these bases.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Artur Andrysiak on Canberra (02) 6252 6792.



ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in May 2004 was a deficit of $1,861m, a decrease of $39m on the deficit in April.


In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in May 2004 was a deficit of $1,840m, an increase of $2m on the deficit in April.



EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $208m (2%) in May to $12,452m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $427m (3%) in May to $12,879m. Rural goods rose $238m (11%), non-rural and other goods rose $200m (3%), while services credits fell $11m.


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS
Graph: Goods Credits



Rural goods

The trend estimate of rural goods exports rose $88m (4%) to $2,336m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, rural goods rose $238m (11%) to $2,493m.


Rural goods, in original terms, rose $353m (16%) to $2,535m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • other rural, up $235m (28%), compared with an average April to May rise of 11% over the previous three years
  • meat and meat preparations, up $132m (27%), compared with an average April to May rise of 4% over the previous three years
  • wool and sheepskins, up $29m (12%), in contrast to an average April to May fall of 5% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were cereal and cereal preparations, down $43m (7%), in contrast to an average April to May rise of 2% over the previous three years.


Non-rural and other goods

The trend estimate of non-rural and other goods exports rose $126m (2%) to $7,276m.


Seasonally adjusted, non-rural and other goods rose $200m (3%) to $7,532m.


In original terms, non-rural and other goods rose $399m (6%) to $7,521m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • metal ores and minerals, up $225m (19%), in contrast to an average April to May fall of 4% over the previous three years
  • coal, coke and briquettes, up $120m (12%), in contrast to an average April to May fall of less than 1% over the previous three years
  • other manufactures, up $150m (14%), compared with an average April to May rise of 7% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were other goods, down $191m (26%).


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS
Graph: Services Credits



In trend terms, services credits fell marginally to $2,840m.


Seasonally adjusted, services credits fell $11m to $2,854m.



IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $169m (1%) in May to $14,313m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $429m (3%) to $14,719m. Consumption goods rose $170m (5%), intermediate and other goods rose $155m (3%), capital goods rose $49m (2%) and services debits rose $55m (2%).


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS
Graph: GOODS DEBITS



Consumption goods

The trend estimate of imports of consumption goods rose $58m (2%) to $3,736m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $170m (5%) to $3,888m.


Imports of consumption goods, in original terms, fell $27m (1%) to $3,461m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • non-industrial transport equipment, up $45m (4%), compared with an average April to May rise of less than 1% over the previous three years
  • food and beverages, up $11m (3%), in contrast to an average April to May fall of 1% over the previous three years
  • toys, books and leisure goods, up $31m (13%), compared with an average April to May rise of 9% over the previous three years.

Offsetting these effects were household electrical items, down $17m (5%), compared with an average April to May fall of 4% over the previous three years.


Capital goods

The trend estimate of imports of capital goods rose $5m to $2,604m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $49m (2%) to $2,693m.


Imports of capital goods, in original terms, rose $228m (9%) to $2,705m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • ADP equipment, up $42m (9%), compared with an average April to May rise of less than 1% over the previous three years
  • machinery and industrial equipment, up $53m (6%), rising at a higher rate than their historical average.

Offsetting these effects were:
  • industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $63m (18%), compared with an average April to May rise of 40% over the previous three years
  • civil aircraft, down $13m (13%), in contrast to an average April to May rise of 31% over the previous three years.

Intermediate and Other Goods

The trend estimate of imports of intermediate and other goods rose $81m (2%) to $5,019m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, intermediate and other goods imports rose $155m (3%) to $5,132m.


Imports of intermediate and other goods, in original terms, fell $39m (1%) to $4,952m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • an adjustment made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account different trading day patterns in April and May, which contributed about 3 percentage points to the rise
  • processed industrial supplies n.e.s., down $29m (3%), compared with an average April to May fall of 7% over the previous three years
  • other parts for capital goods, up $80m (12%), compared with an average April to May rise of 5% over the previous three years
  • parts for ADP equipment, up $27m (21%), in contrast to an average April to May fall of 3% over the previous three years
  • other merchandise goods, down $7m (8%), compared with an average April to May fall of 29% over the previous three years.

Offsetting these effects were:
  • other goods, down $53m (14%), in contrast to an average April to May rise of 8% over the previous three years
  • fuels and lubricants, down $9m (1%), in contrast to an average April to May rise of 6% over the previous three years.

Imports of services
SERVICES DEBITS
Graph: SERVICES DEBITS



In trend terms, services debits rose $25m (1%) to $2,954m.


Seasonally adjusted, services debits rose $55m (2%) to $3,006m.


Contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted series were:

  • freight transportation services, up $45m (9%)
  • other services, up $10m (1%).

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