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8750.0 - Building Activity, Australia: Dwelling Unit Commencements, Preliminary, Jun 2003  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 12/09/2003   
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JUNE QTR KEY FIGURES



% change
% change
Mar qtr 03 to
Jun qtr 02 to
TREND ESTIMATES
Jun qtr 03
Jun qtr 03
Jun qtr 03

Dwelling units commenced
New private sector houses
25,004
-6.1
-14.7
Total dwelling units
38,477
-6.8
-12.4
% change
% change
Mar qtr 03 to
Jun qtr 02 to
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
Jun qtr 03
Jun qtr 03
Jun qtr 03
Dwelling units commenced
New private sector houses
24,972
-6.8
-14.2
Total dwelling units
38,662
-4.2
-11.6


Graph - Dwelling units commenced, total
Graph - New houses commenced, private sector


JUNE QTR KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES
  • The trend estimate for the total number of dwelling units commenced fell 6.8% in the June quarter 2003, the third successive quarterly decline. New private sector houses fell 6.1%, the fourth successive quarterly decline.
  • The decline may be halted in the September quarter 2003, due to continued strength in the number of building approvals, particularly for new private sector houses.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • In seasonally adjusted terms, the total number of dwelling units commenced fell for the third successive quarter, by 4.2% in the June quarter, to 38,662. This level was the lowest since the September quarter 2001.
  • New private sector house commencements fell 6.8% to 24,972, the lowest for two years.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • The total number of dwelling units commenced rose 1.1% in the June quarter to 38,523.
  • Within the private sector, the total number of dwellings commenced rose by a marginal 0.1% to 37,454. New house commencements fell 1.7% to 24,957 (14.5% fewer than a year earlier) but other dwellings rose 3.9% to 12,497, to be 8.9% fewer than a year earlier.
  • In the latest quarter, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania recorded increases in the total number of private sector dwellings commenced. The decrease in new house commencements was due to falls in Victoria (-12.6%) and Western Australia (-8.8%), with the largest increase being Queensland (+12.8%). The increase in other dwellings was due mainly to Queensland (+22.5%) and Victoria (+19.3%), while the main falls were in New South Wales (-8.2%) and Western Australia (-26.5%).
  • Within the public sector, the total number of dwellings commenced rose 53.4% to 1,069.


NOTES


ABOUT THIS ISSUE

This publication provides an early indication of trends in the number of dwelling units commenced. The data are estimates based on a response rate of approximately 90% of a sample of building jobs collected in the Building Activity Survey. More comprehensive and updated results will be released in Building Activity, Australia (cat. no. 8752.0) on 13 October 2003.


SIGNIFICANT REVISIONS THIS ISSUE

The total number of dwelling units commenced in Australia during the March quarter 2003 has been revised downwards by 525 (-1.4%) from the estimate published in Building Activity, Australia, March quarter 2003 (cat. no. 8752.0) released on 17 July 2003. This was mainly the result of downward revisions of 256 (-3.1%) in Queensland and 136 (-1.3%) in both New South Wales and Victoria.

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates have been revised as a result of the adoption of new seasonal adjustment methodology. Concurrent seasonal adjustment has replaced forward factor methodology for all seasonally adjusted series in this publication. See paragraphs 12 and 13 of the Explanatory Notes.


RELIABILITY OF ESTIMATES

The estimates in this publication are based on a sample survey of private sector residential building jobs and a complete enumeration of such public sector jobs. Because data are not collected for all private sector residential building jobs, estimates are subject to sampling variability. Relative standard errors give a measure of this variability and therefore indicate the degree of confidence that can be attached to the data.

Relative standard errors for dwellings commenced in the June quarter 2003 are given below. There is 67% confidence that the actual number would be within one standard error of the sample estimate, and 95% confidence that it lies within two standard errors.


RELATIVE STANDARD ERRORS-June Quarter 2003

New private
Total new
sector houses
other dwellings
Total dwellings
%
%
%
NSW
4.0
1.9
2.2
Vic.
4.1
2.8
2.8
Qld
3.9
0.8
2.6
SA
3.3
1.5
2.5
WA
3.2
1.6
2.6
Tas.
2.8
. .
2.1
NT
. .
. .
. .
ACT
2.3
. .
1.6
Aust.
1.8
1.0
1.2



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact Tony Bammann on Adelaide 08 8237 7316, or the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070.


DWELLING UNIT COMMENCEMENTS(a) TREND ESTIMATES


NEW SOUTH WALES
VICTORIA
QUEENSLAND

The trend estimates of commencements in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland have declined for the last three quarters.

Graph - Dwelling unit commencements(a) trend estimates - New south wales, victoria, queensland



WESTERN AUSTRALIA
SOUTH AUSTRALIA

The trend estimates of commencements in South Australia have declined for the last three quarters. In Western Australia the trend has shown growth in all but one quarter since the December quarter 2000.

Graph - Dwelling unit commencements(a) trend estimates - Western australia, south australia



TASMANIA
AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY
NORTHERN TERRITORY

The trend estimates of commencements in the Northern Territory have declined for the last three quarters and for the last two quarters in the Australian Capital Territory. On the other hand, Tasmania has recorded growth for the last two quarters, following two quarters of decline.

Graph - Dwelling unit commencements(a) trend estimates - tasmania, australian capital territory, northern territory


(a) Includes conversions etc.

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