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3401.0.55.001 - Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia, Aug 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 16/09/2004   
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This electronic release contains modelled estimates of short-term visitor arrivals to Australia based on passport transactions for the current month and passenger card disaggregations from earlier months. There is no printed publication available for this release, however, it is closely related to the monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0).

NOTES


FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUERELEASE DATE
September 200418 October 2004
October 200417 November 2004
November 200415 December 2004
December 200418 January 2005
January 200518 February 2005
February 200517 March 2005


DATA NOTES

The estimates presented in this publication provide an early indication of short-term visitor arrival movements prior to final data becoming available for the reference month. Monthly data prior to the reference month are final estimates. The ABS encourages users of these data to refer to the ABS monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0) for final ABS estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for the reference period. Final estimates for August 2004 will be released on 14 October 2004.

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 6 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

Calculations of percentage and numeric change as shown in the Main Features of this publication are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 10 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

Original estimates are influenced by seasonal and one-off irregular factors which can distort interpretations of the underlying growth in the series. Therefore, the ABS encourages the use of the trend estimates for time series analysis. See the Demography Working Paper 2004/2 – Interpretation and Use of Overseas Arrivals and Departures Estimates (cat. no. 3106.0.55.002).


FORTHCOMING CHANGES

As of the September 2004 issue (to be released 18 October 2004), the following changes will occur:
  • The presentation of information by country will be based on the Standard Australian Classification of Countries (SACC). This will replace the currently used Australian Standard Classification of Countries for Social Statistics (ASCCSS). For more detailed information refer to the ABS publication Standard Australian Classification of Countries (SACC), 1998 (cat. no. 1269.0).
  • Table 2 will present estimates for the last two calendar and financial years, and the last six months.


INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Chrissy Beruldsen at c.beruldsen@abs.gov.au or telephone (02) 6252 5640.


MAIN FEATURES


TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals to Australia for August 2004 (440,200 movements) increased by 0.8% compared with July 2004 (436,700 movements). This followed increases of 1.0% for June and 0.9% for July 2004.

According to the trend estimates this is the fifth consecutive monthly increase in the series. Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 3.9% higher than when the series last troughed in March 2004 (423,700 movements).


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

According to seasonally adjusted estimates, there were 441,000 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during August 2004, representing a decrease of 0.2% compared with July 2004 (441,700 movements). This followed increases of 1.5% for June and 2.1% for July 2004.
Graph: Visitor Arrivals, Short-term



ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

There were an estimated 403,700 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during August 2004. This represents an increase of 11.4% compared with August 2003 (362,200 movements). However, the original time series is affected by seasonal and one-off irregular factors which can distort interpretations of the underlying growth in the series. Therefore, the ABS encourages the use of trend estimates for time series analysis.

During August 2004, large numbers of short-term visitor arrivals came from New Zealand (95,900 movements), Japan (65,700 movements), the United Kingdom (38,100 movements), the United States of America (33,200 movements), China (16,800 movements) and Singapore (15,500 movements).

Compared with August 2003, there were large increases in the number of short-term visitor arrivals from New Zealand (up 22,900 movements or 31%), Japan (up 8,000 movements or 14%) and China (up 4,600 movements or 38%).

TABLE 1: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT: VISITOR ARRIVALS - AUGUST 2004

July 04
August 03
August
to August
to August
04
04
04
%
%
'000
change
change
Short-term visitor arrivals

Trend(a)
440.2
0.8
. .
Seasonally adjusted(a)
441.0
-0.2
. .
Original
403.7
. .
11.4

(a) Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates may be revised each month. See paragraphs 14 and 17 of the Explanatory Notes.

TABLE 2: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT: VISITOR ARRIVALS(a) - COUNTRY OF RESIDENCE

Calendar year

Financial year

Quarter ended June

August

2002
2003
2002-03
2003-04
2003
2004
2003
2004(a)
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000

OCEANIA & ANTARCTICA -
New Zealand
790.1
839.1
793.1
926.1
203.4
252.3
73.0
95.9
Total
905.0
956.5
904.7
1047.0
227.7
278.6
81.3
104.6
EUROPE & THE FORMER USSR -
Germany
134.8
137.9
134.0
141.0
20.4
21.3
11.1
10.3
Italy
43.3
41.3
42.5
43.7
4.5
6.9
5.3
5.7
Netherlands
53.0
51.0
52.1
49.4
7.1
6.8
2.5
2.5
Sweden
30.9
31.8
31.8
32.8
4.1
4.5
1.2
1.3
Switzerland
41.5
40.9
41.2
41.5
5.4
6.1
2.1
1.7
United Kingdom
642.7
672.8
644.2
686.4
107.5
111.9
36.9
38.1
Total
1180.5
1212.0
1170.4
1246.2
185.0
200.8
76.3
76.3
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA -
Total
51.5
52.7
50.2
56.4
8.4
11.3
6.6
9.6
SOUTHEAST ASIA -
Indonesia
89.4
90.3
86.9
91.5
19.2
19.1
5.9
6.0
Malaysia
159.0
155.6
142.4
175.3
27.1
40.7
11.6
13.1
Philippines
28.5
27.0
25.4
30.4
7.2
8.9
2.0
2.2
Singapore
286.9
253.4
261.6
252.6
57.0
62.8
15.2
15.5
Thailand
82.7
73.2
75.5
78.8
17.2
22.6
5.9
5.3
Total
673.8
625.3
617.7
654.1
133.9
160.1
42.7
44.6
NORTHEAST ASIA -
China
190.0
176.1
177.1
216.9
17.1
47.8
12.1
16.8
Japan
715.5
627.7
658.6
687.5
102.6
153.4
57.7
65.7
Korea
189.7
207.3
195.8
215.8
36.2
44.4
15.5
14.9
Taiwan
97.4
87.7
80.8
103.9
9.8
26.3
11.0
8.2
Total
1345.5
1230.0
1254.8
1358.5
194.5
302.6
107.6
117.7
THE AMERICAS -
Canada
90.9
87.9
86.5
92.9
13.7
16.5
5.0
5.9
USA
434.5
422.1
423.5
430.1
94.2
101.1
31.3
33.2
Total
556.2
537.5
537.1
551.9
112.9
123.3
38.3
41.2
AFRICA (excluding North Africa) -
South Africa
51.0
52.7
47.5
55.1
10.7
11.3
3.4
3.4
Total
67.3
69.2
62.7
72.4
13.7
14.6
4.6
4.8
Total(b)
4841.2
4745.9
4655.8
5057.2
890.7
1111.3
362.2
403.7

(a) August 2004 data are statistically modelled on passport movements and past arrival trends from passenger cards. Monthly data prior to August 2004 are final estimates based on passenger card data.
(b) Includes Southern Asia and not stated/inadequately described.


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