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5206.0 - Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, Jun 2003  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 02/09/2003   
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NEW PUBLICATION DESIGN - AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL ACCOUNTS: National Income, Expenditure and Product, (cat. no. 5206.0)



KEY FIGURES


%change
Mar qtr 03 to
Jun qtr 03
%change
Jun qtr 02 to
Jun qtr 03

GDP (Chain volume measure)
Trend
0.3
1.9
Seasonally adjusted
0.1
2
Final consumption expenditure (Chain volume measure)
Trend
0.8
3.4
Seasonally adjusted
1.2
3.5
Gross fixed capital formation (Chain volume measure)
Trend
1.4
10.2
Seasonally adjusted
1.2
8.2
GDP chain price index
Original
-0.2
2.4
Terms of trade
Seasonally adjusted
0.1
2.8
Real gross domestic income
Trend
0.4
2.5
Seasonally adjusted
0.1
2.6


Graph - GDP-trend, chain volume measures
Graph - GDP-trend, chain volume measures qtly change

KEY POINTS

Trend estimates
  • In volume terms, GDP increased by 0.3% in the June quarter, GDP per capita remained unchanged, GDP per hour worked in the market sector fell by 0.4% and real gross domestic income grew by 0.4%.

Seasonally adjusted estimates
  • In volume terms, GDP increased by 0.1% in the June quarter. Non-farm GDP rose 0.3% while farm GDP fell by 5.7%, reflecting the continuing effect of the drought on the farm sector.
  • On the expenditure side the increase in GDP was driven by growth in household final consumption expenditure (contributing 0.7 percentage points), public gross fixed capital formation (0.3 percentage points) and changes in private non-farm inventories ( 0.2 percentage points). These positive contributions were offset by a significant negative contribution from net exports (-1.5 percentage points) and a negative contribution of 0.3 percentage points from gross fixed capital formation on dwellings.
  • On the production side there were small contributions from a number of industries-finance and insurance, retail trade and cultural and recreational services. This growth was offset by negative contributions from mining, construction, transport and storage and agriculture.


NOTES


FEATURE ARTICLE

A feature article, entitled 'Statistical Treatment of the 2003 Rugby World Cup', has been included in this issue starting on page 14. Also, updated estimates of the impact of the drought on agricultural production in 2002-03 have been included in the analysis and comments section starting on page 12. Estimates of agricultural production for 2003-04 based on the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics' September 2003 forecasts will be presented in a feature article in the October 2003 issue of Australian Economic Indicators (cat. no.1350.0) to be released on 30 September, 2003.


REVISIONS IN THIS ISSUE

Revisions have been made to a number of aggregates in this issue. Their net effect on the March quarter 2003 estimate of seasonally adjusted GDP (in chain volume terms) has been to decrease quarterly growth by 0.1 percentage points.

In addition to the normal quarterly revisions (due to the incorporation of more up-to-date source data) there are a number of other factors influencing the estimates released in the June quarter that have led to revisions to both the level and the movements of GDP and its components. First, a new base year, 2001-02, has been introduced into the chain volume estimates which has resulted in revisions to growth rates in subsequent periods. Next, the chain volume estimates have been re-referenced to 2001-02 thus preserving additivity in the quarters after the reference year. Re-referencing affects the levels of, but not the movements in, chain volume estimates.

Finally, four components of GDP have been seasonally reanalysed leading to revisions going back around five to ten years in those series. The series reanalysed were: household final consumption expenditure on food, gross fixed capital formation on machinery and equipment, gross fixed capital formation on other buildings and structures and exports of goods and services. The impact on seasonally adjusted chain volume GDP growth from these reanalyses has been negligible.


CHANGES IN THE NEXT ISSUE

The September quarter 2003 release of this publication will contain revisions to many series as a result of benchmarking quarterly series to revised benchmarks from the annual supply and use tables for 1999-2000 to 2001-02. These revised benchmarks will be first published in annual terms in the Australian System of National Accounts (cat. no.5204.0) to be released on 5 November, 2003. Revisions will also result from the annual seasonal reanalysis that is undertaken on all series.

In addition, the format of this publication will be changed. Following consultation with national accounts users the format of this publication and associated electronic spreadsheets will change to include some new series and change the order of the existing tables. A 'mock-up' of the new paper publication and Ausstats table structures will be made available to users via the ABS web site on 6 October, 2003.


FURTHER INFORMATION

For further information contact Alan Tryde on Canberra 02 6252 6713 for income & consumption estimates, and Patricia Mahony on Canberra 02 6252 6711 for investment, trade & industry estimates.

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