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3401.0.55.001 - Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia, Mar 2005  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 14/04/2005   
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NOTES

DATA NOTES

The estimates presented in this publication provide an early indication of short-term visitor arrival movements prior to final data becoming available for the reference month. Monthly data prior to the reference month are final estimates. The ABS encourages users of these data to refer to the ABS monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0) for final ABS estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for the reference period. Final estimates for March 2005 will be released on 6 May 2005.


This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 6 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


Calculations of percentage and numeric change as shown in the Main Features of this publication are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 10 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


Original estimates are influenced by seasonal and one-off or irregular factors which can distort interpretations of the underlying growth in the series. Therefore, the ABS encourages the use of the trend estimates for time series analysis. See the Demography Working Paper 2004/2 - Interpretation and Use of Overseas Arrivals and Departures Estimates (cat. no. 3106.0.55.002).


Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates at the current end of the series are subject to revision due to additional original information becoming available. See paragraphs 14 and 17 of the Explanatory Notes.



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.



EMERGING ISSUES

December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami - The 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami have impacted on overseas arrivals from, and resident departures to, affected countries. Quantifying the size of this impact on March 2005 short-term visitor arrival estimates is not yet possible. This impact may affect the reliability of recent ABS trend estimates. The ABS will continue to monitor and report on this situation.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.



MAIN FEATURES


TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia for March 2005 (470,700 movements) increased by 0.9% compared with February 2005 (466,300 movements). This followed increases of 1.3% for January and 1.2% for February 2005.


According to trend estimates, this is the thirteenth consecutive monthly increase in the series. Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 10.7% higher than when the series last troughed in February 2004 (425,200 movements).



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in March 2005 (473,800 movements) increased by 2.4% compared with February 2005 (462,500 movements). This followed an increase of 4.8% for January and a decrease of 2.9% for February 2005.

Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Visitor arrivals Short-term




ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original movement terms there were an estimated 497,200 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during March 2005.

TABLE 1: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT, VISITOR ARRIVALS(a) - March 2005

Mar 05
Feb 05 to Mar 05
Mar 04 to Mar 05
'000
% change
% change

Trend
470.7
0.9
10.7
Seasonally adjusted
473.8
2.4
. .
Original
497.2
. .
. .

. . not applicable
(a) Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates may be revised each month. See paragraphs 14 and 17 of Explanatory Notes.

TABLE 2: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT(a), VISITOR ARRIVALS - Country of Residence(b)

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Feb 05
Mar 05
Feb 05 to Mar 05
Mar 04 to Mar 05
Feb 05
Mar 05
Feb 05 to Mar 05
Mar 05
Country of residence
'000
'000
% change
% change
'000
'000
% change
'000

OCEANIA & ANTARCTICA
New Zealand
90.0
90.4
0.4
10.0
91.7
88.3
-3.7
88.6
Total
100.4
100.7
0.3
9.4
102.2
98.4
-3.7
98.4
NORTH-WEST EUROPE
Germany
12.2
12.3
0.9
8.0
12.1
12.5
4.0
14.5
Netherlands
4.2
4.2
0.7
4.8
4.0
4.2
3.6
4.4
Sweden
3.1
3.2
2.2
12.4
3.1
3.2
3.5
3.4
Switzerland
3.6
3.6
-
0.2
3.6
3.5
-2.3
3.5
United Kingdom
63.1
65.8
4.3
17.1
60.0
72.0
20.1
84.9
Total
103.7
106.9
3.1
14.4
99.7
114.0
14.3
129.1
SOUTHERN & EASTERN EUROPE
Italy
4.2
4.2
-1.7
11.9
3.9
4.0
0.6
3.1
Total
10.4
10.3
-0.5
12.1
9.4
9.9
4.8
8.4
NORTH AFRICA & THE MIDDLE EAST
5.9
6.1
4.1
22.8
5.9
6.4
7.4
6.2
SOUTH-EAST ASIA
Indonesia
6.8
7.1
4.0
-1.1
7.2
7.4
2.1
6.6
Malaysia
14.4
14.2
-1.3
-
13.8
14.1
2.5
13.3
Philippines
2.8
2.9
2.4
10.8
2.8
3.0
7.6
4.0
Singapore
22.9
22.9
-0.3
9.9
22.5
22.1
-1.8
22.5
Thailand
6.5
6.5
0.4
-2.0
6.4
6.6
4.1
7.6
Total
55.8
55.9
0.2
4.6
55.2
55.4
0.4
56.0
NORTH-EAST ASIA
China
23.4
22.9
-2.2
14.6
(c)n.p.
(c)n.p.
(c)n.p.
17.0
Japan
62.0
61.2
-1.2
5.8
62.3
60.8
-2.4
66.6
Korea
20.3
20.8
2.4
22.4
20.6
21.5
4.4
19.5
Taiwan
9.3
9.6
2.5
22.1
9.6
10.5
9.8
9.3
Total
128.0
127.4
-0.4
11.5
128.5
126.6
-1.4
128.0
AMERICAS
Canada
8.7
8.8
1.3
11.5
8.2
8.7
6.2
10.8
United States of America
37.6
38.4
1.9
7.4
37.6
38.4
2.0
43.3
Total
49.2
50.1
1.7
8.7
48.8
49.8
2.1
56.8
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
South Africa
4.3
4.4
1.7
2.9
4.1
4.7
13.8
5.5
Total
5.8
5.9
1.3
2.8
5.6
6.1
8.5
6.9
Total(d)
466.3
470.7
0.9
10.7
462.5
473.8
2.4
497.2

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This table presents a summary of the most recent overseas arrivals and departures estimates. Time series data for months earlier than those presented in this table are available as AusStats time series spreadsheets.
(b) Data for the current month are statistically modelled on passport movements and past arrival trends from passenger cards. Monthly data prior to the current month are estimates based on passenger card data.
(c) Seasonally adjusted data for short-term visitor arrivals from China is of an unpublishable standard.
(d) Includes Southern and Central Asia and not stated/inadequately described.

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