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9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Nov 2002  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 18/12/2002   
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This publication presents monthly information on sales of new motor vehicles in each state/territory in original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimated terms. The original data are sourced from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries. Sales data are available for passenger vehicles, other vehicles and total vehicles at the state/territory and national levels.


NOVEMBER 2002 KEY POINTS

Trend

Trend estimates indicate that total new motor vehicle sales have continued to show a gradual decline in the rate of growth since July 2002. November 2002 recorded zero growth compared with the previous month. A rise of 0.3% was recorded for passenger vehicle sales and a fall of 0.5% was recorded for other vehicle sales.

Victoria and Western Australia recorded small increases in the trend estimates of total new motor vehicle sales in November 2002 compared with the previous month, with each rising by 0.5%. All other states and territories either remained steady or showed small decreases.

Seasonally adjusted

The seasonally adjusted estimate of total new motor vehicle sales fell by 2.7% in November compared with October 2002. A small decrease was recorded for passenger vehicle sales (0.7%) with a larger decrease recorded in other vehicle sales (6.2%).


NOTES


CHANGES THIS ISSUE

This edition includes changes to the seasonally adjusted series and the trend estimate series as a result of the annual re-estimation of the seasonal factors.

The next annual re-estimation of the seasonal factors will be undertaken after data for reference month October 2003 have been released.



DATA QUALITY

Due to a processing problem with the data supplier for heavy truck sales, other vehicles were understated by 367 units in July 2002. These missing units have been included in the August 2002 sales data for other vehicles. The impact on the original series is as follows: New South Wales (119 units), Victoria (63 units), Queensland (84 units), South Australia (18 units), Western Australia (65 units), Tasmania (14 units) and the Northern Territory (4 units).


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent trend estimates are likely to be revised when new seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information see Explanatory Notes 9 and 10.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates.

1The December 2002 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the June seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.2%.
2The December 2002 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the June seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.2%.

The percentage change of 4.2% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 8 years has been 4.2%.

Graph - Presenting the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates



SUMMARY - TREND AND SEASONAL ANALYSIS

Graph - New motor vehicle sales, total vehicles - long term


Graph - New motor vehicle sales, total vehicles - short term

Table 1: New Motor Vehicle Sales

Passenger vehicles (No.)
Other vehicles (a) (No.)
Total vehicles (No.)
Change Passenger vehicles (%)
Change Other vehicles (%)
Change Total vehicles (%)

Original

2001September
40,257
18,992
59,249
-10.3
-10.1
-10.2
October
45,575
20,805
66,380
13.2
9.5
12.0
November
47,510
23,252
70,762
4.2
11.8
6.6
December
48,193
20,838
69,031
1.4
-10.4
-2.4
2002January
39,779
18,778
58,557
-17.5
-9.9
-15.2
February
42,776
22,019
64,795
7.5
17.3
10.7
March
44,828
22,996
67,824
4.8
4.4
4.7
April
42,052
21,834
63,886
-6.2
-5.1
-5.8
May
46,448
26,675
73,123
10.5
22.2
14.5
June
49,101
29,680
78,781
5.7
11.3
7.7
July
45,923
23,859
69,782
-6.5
-19.6
-11.4
August
45,122
24,525
69,647
-1.7
2.8
-0.2
September
43,396
22,638
66,034
-3.8
-7.7
-5.2
October
48,269
24,063
72,332
11.2
6.3
9.5
November
47,229
24,346
71,575
-2.2
1.2
-1.0

Seasonally Adjusted

2001September
44,419
21,880
66,299
1.9
4.4
2.7
October
43,431
21,252
64,683
-2.2
-2.9
-2.4
November
43,864
21,910
65,774
1.0
3.1
1.7
December
46,133
20,054
66,187
5.2
-8.5
0.6
2002January
49,079
24,810
73,889
6.4
23.7
11.6
February
45,699
23,668
69,367
-6.9
-4.6
-6.1
March
43,408
21,857
65,265
-5.0
-7.7
-5.9
April
45,648
23,651
69,299
5.2
8.2
6.2
May
45,401
24,316
69,717
-0.5
2.8
0.6
June
44,705
23,749
68,454
-1.5
-2.3
-1.8
July
44,390
24,048
68,438
-0.7
1.3
0.0
August
45,301
25,217
70,518
2.1
4.9
3.0
September
45,947
25,194
71,141
1.4
-0.1
0.9
October
45,791
24,955
70,746
-0.3
-0.9
-0.6
November
45,464
23,406
68,870
-0.7
-6.2
-2.7

Trend

2001September
43,829
21,165
64,994
0.7
1.7
1.0
October
44,334
21,541
65,875
1.2
1.8
1.4
November
44,910
21,875
66,785
1.3
1.6
1.4
December
45,425
22,214
67,639
1.1
1.5
1.3
2002January
45,785
22,601
68,386
0.8
1.7
1.1
February
45,873
22,979
68,852
0.2
1.7
0.7
March
45,672
23,291
68,963
-0.4
1.4
0.2
April
45,308
23,555
68,863
-0.8
1.1
-0.1
May
44,990
23,834
68,824
-0.7
1.2
-0.1
June
44,906
24,133
69,039
-0.2
1.3
0.3
July
45,063
24,443
69,506
0.3
1.3
0.7
August
45,257
24,657
69,914
0.4
0.9
0.6
September
45,420
24,704
70,124
0.4
0.2
0.3
October
45,561
24,635
70,196
0.3
-0.3
0.1
November
45,715
24,510
70,225
0.3
-0.5
0.0
(a) Other vehicle figures for July 2002 and August 2002 have been affected by reporting problems. See Notes.


Table 2: New Motor Vehicle Sales by State/Territory of Registration (a)

NSW (No.)
Vic. (No.)
Qld (No.)
SA (No.)
WA (No.)
Tas. (No.)
NT (No.)
ACT (No.)
Aust. (No.)

Original

2001September
21,272
16,295
10,303
3,670
5,197
1,044
508
960
59,249
October
23,535
18,442
11,430
4,148
5,725
1,257
618
1,225
66,380
November
24,667
19,544
12,505
4,515
6,118
1,427
670
1,316
70,762
December
22,979
19,502
12,045
4,379
6,649
1,873
571
1,033
69,031
2002January
20,414
15,658
10,737
3,727
5,481
989
525
1,026
58,557
February
22,108
17,336
12,252
4,168
6,159
1,090
553
1,129
64,795
March
23,923
18,330
12,694
4,224
5,880
1,093
658
1,022
67,824
April
22,428
17,250
11,671
3,985
5,642
1,103
624
1,183
63,886
May
25,763
19,540
13,507
4,648
6,344
1,343
763
1,215
73,123
June
27,496
20,296
15,035
5,143
7,348
1,294
813
1,356
78,781
July
24,643
18,721
13,462
4,457
5,562
1,174
579
1,184
69,782
August
23,456
18,942
13,516
4,537
6,102
1,311
597
1,186
69,647
September
22,236
18,765
12,497
4,187
5,493
1,239
507
1,110
66,034
October
24,618
20,185
13,456
4,499
6,627
1,203
580
1,164
72,332
November
24,349
19,829
13,224
4,641
6,320
1,398
628
1,186
71,575

Seasonally Adjusted

2001September
23,662
17,914
11,846
4,191
5,834
1,104
618
1,130
66,299
October
22,810
17,422
11,581
4,083
5,707
1,259
626
1,195
64,683
November
22,703
18,093
11,881
4,123
5,803
1,296
638
1,237
65,774
December
22,558
18,453
11,506
4,120
6,647
1,268
613
1,022
66,187
2002January
25,864
19,891
13,486
4,883
6,524
1,322
673
1,246
73,889
February
23,890
18,492
12,906
4,483
6,441
1,305
638
1,212
69,367
March
23,102
18,035
12,072
4,118
5,233
1,144
605
956
65,265
April
24,378
18,490
12,743
4,359
6,140
1,254
609
1,326
69,299
May
24,448
18,804
12,968
4,370
6,041
1,315
659
1,112
69,717
June
23,768
18,491
12,265
4,448
6,334
1,299
634
1,215
68,454
July
23,332
18,419
13,518
4,360
5,904
1,210
586
1,109
68,438
August
24,094
18,986
13,768
4,427
6,190
1,256
617
1,180
70,518
September
23,778
19,665
13,771
4,581
6,154
1,292
596
1,304
71,141
October
24,025
19,026
13,887
4,434
6,434
1,225
588
1,127
70,746
November
23,130
19,251
12,847
4,426
6,192
1,289
617
1,118
68,870

Trend

2001September
22,817
17,916
11,514
4,066
5,758
1,173
616
1,134
64,994
October
23,083
18,090
11,734
4,116
5,854
1,218
627
1,153
65,875
November
23,338
18,292
11,979
4,165
5,959
1,254
634
1,164
66,785
December
23,583
18,486
12,236
4,206
6,053
1,276
635
1,164
67,639
2002January
23,824
18,643
12,457
4,247
6,139
1,281
636
1,159
68,386
February
24,019
18,700
12,589
4,285
6,193
1,275
635
1,156
68,852
March
24,115
18,635
12,649
4,316
6,198
1,263
633
1,154
68,963
April
24,087
18,536
12,696
4,342
6,159
1,257
629
1,157
68,863
May
23,989
18,500
12,805
4,366
6,114
1,259
624
1,167
68,824
June
23,901
18,591
12,999
4,394
6,098
1,261
619
1,176
69,039
July
23,870
18,778
13,248
4,424
6,125
1,264
613
1,184
69,506
August
23,820
18,959
13,458
4,449
6,170
1,264
608
1,186
69,914
September
23,734
19,107
13,569
4,464
6,206
1,261
603
1,180
70,124
October
23,638
19,226
13,598
4,468
6,238
1,259
599
1,170
70,196
November
23,564
19,316
13,580
4,470
6,270
1,259
597
1,169
70,225
(a) Other vehicle figures for July 2002 and August 2002 have been affected by reporting problems. See Notes.



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