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5676.0 - Business Indicators, Australia, Jun 2005  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 05/09/2005   
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JUNE KEY FIGURES

Mar Qtr 05 to Jun Qtr 05
Jun Qtr 04 to Jun Qtr 05
%
%

Sales of goods & services (Chain vol. meas.)
Manufacturing
Trend
0.2
-1.0
Seasonally Adjusted
0.0
-0.4
Wholesale trade
Trend
0.9
1.8
Seasonally Adjusted
2.2
2.4
Inventories (Chain vol. meas.)
Trend
0.9
2.6
Seasonally Adjusted
1.2
2.6
Company profits before income tax
Trend
-0.8
10.1
Seasonally Adjusted
11.0
24.9
Company gross operating profits
Trend
2.9
8.6
Seasonally Adjusted
10.2
11.9
Wages and salaries
Seasonally Adjusted
1.8
6.9

Inventories (volume terms), Trend estimates - Quarterly change
Graph: Inventories (volume terms)

Company gross operating profits, Trend estimates - Quarterly change
Graph: Company gross operating profits (current prices) Trend estimates Quarterly change



JUNE KEY POINTS


CHAIN VOLUME MEASURES

  • The trend estimate for inventories increased 0.9% this quarter, after an increase of 0.7% in the previous quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate increased 1.2% compared with a 1.4% increase last quarter.
  • The trend estimate for Manufacturing sales of goods and services increased 0.2% this quarter after a 0.1% rise in the previous quarter. Manufacturing sales were virtually unchanged in seasonally adjusted terms this quarter. The trend estimate of Wholesale trade's sales of goods and services increased 0.9% this quarter following a rise of 0.6% in the previous quarter. Seasonally adjusted Wholesale sales increased 2.2% this quarter.


CURRENT PRICE ESTIMATES
  • The trend estimate for company gross operating profits increased 2.9% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate increased 10.2% this quarter, with increased prices for mining commodities being a significant contributing factor.
  • Growth in the trend estimate for wages and salaries has been consistent (at about 1.7%) over the past three quarters. The seasonally adjusted estimate grew by 1.8% this quarter.


NOTES

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

A new base year, 2003-04, has been introduced into the chain volume estimates which has resulted in revisions to growth rates in subsequent periods. Also, the chain volume estimates have been re-referenced to 2003-04, thereby preserving additivity in the quarters after the reference year. Re-referencing affects the level of, but not the movements in, chain volume estimates.



COMPARISON BETWEEN COMPANY GROSS OPERATING PROFITS AND GROSS OPERATING SURPLUS

Price changes have had a significant impact on the value of inventories held by Australian businesses this quarter. An inventories valuation adjustment (IVA) is applied in the calculation of the gross operating surplus of private non-financial corporations (GOS) estimate in the Australian National Accounts. As prices for inventories have risen in the June quarter but had fallen in the March quarter, growth in GOS will be lower after the application of the IVA. The IVA for the June quarter is $791m, which is $868m higher than March quarter IVA of -$77m. No adjustment is made to the company gross operating profits (CGOP) estimate in this publication and, as a result, users should exercise caution when comparing the two series. It should also be noted that there are other differences between the two series. In particular, changes are made to GOS when annual benchmarks are applied and slightly different seasonal factors apply to the two series. Given this, while CGOP movements are an appropriate indicator for GOS, it is not the case that the two series will have equivalent seasonally adjusted movements from quarter to quarter.



REVISIONS IN THIS ISSUE

A s is usually the case after the initial release of a quarter's estimates, revisions have been made to the March quarter 2005 estimates as a result of responses received or revised after the publication of the previous issue. The new base and reference years and re-weighting for chain volume measures and the use of concurrent seasonal adjustment methodology have also resulted in revisions to previously released estimates.


The net effect on the December quarter 2004 to March quarter 2005 percentage changes of these revisions has been to revise the seasonally adjusted chain volume percentage change for total inventories by -0.6 of a percentage point, Manufacturing sales of goods and services by +0.4 of a percentage point and wholesale trade sales of goods and services by +0.4 of a percentage point. Seasonally adjusted current price percentage changes for company gross operating profits have been revised by -0.5 of a percentage point and wages and salaries by +0.1 of a percentage point.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or David Coxall on Sydney (02) 9268 4241.



ANALYSIS BY INDUSTRY


FEATURED SERIES

The following graphs and commentary refer to seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of: sales of goods and services ('Sales') and inventories ('Inv.') in volume terms; and wages and salaries ('Wages') and company gross operating profits ('CGOP') in current price terms.



TOTAL ALL INDUSTRIES

The trend estimate for total company gross operating profits increased 3% this quarter continuing the sustained growth since September quarter 2001. This was mainly driven by strong growth in Mining. The seasonally adjusted estimate increased 10% this quarter. The trend and seasonally adjusted estimates for wages and salaries increased 2% this quarter continuing the growth in these series since September quarter 2001.

Graph: Total All Industries - CGOP and Wages


The trend estimate for total inventories increased 1% this quarter. Wholesale trade and Retail trade were the main contributors to this increase. The seasonally adjusted estimate increased 1% this quarter.

Graph: Total All Industries - Inventories



MINING

The trend estimate for company gross operating profits increased 11% which is the fifth successive quarter where growth has been over 9%. The seasonally adjusted estimate increased 26% this quarter. The trend estimate for wages and salaries increased 5% this quarter continuing the strong growth of the previous four quarters. The seasonally adjusted estimate increased 3% this quarter.

Graph: Mining - CGOP and Wages


The trend estimate for sales of goods and services increased in each of the latest three quarters after being relatively flat in the previous two quarters. The seasonally adjusted estimate decreased 3% this quarter. The trend estimate for inventories increased 1% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate has decreased 1% this quarter.

Graph: Mining - Inventories and Sales



MANUFACTURING

The trend estimate for company gross operating profits decreased marginally this quarter following decreases of 1% in the previous two quarters. The seasonally adjusted estimate increased 3% this quarter. The trend estimate for wages and salaries increased 1% in each of the latest ten quarters. The seasonally adjusted estimate increased 2% this quarter.

Graph: Manufacturing - CGOP and Wages


The trend estimate for sales of goods and services has remained relatively flat for the latest three quarters. The seasonally adjusted estimate has fallen marginally this quarter. The trend estimate for inventories rose marginally this quarter following decreases in the previous four quarters. The seasonally adjusted estimate increased slightly this quarter.

Graph: Manufacturing - Inventories and Sales



CONSTRUCTION

The trend estimate for company gross operating profits decreased in each of the latest three quarters following growth in the previous five quarters. The seasonally adjusted estimate decreased 8% this quarter. The trend estimate for wages and salaries increased steadily over the past three quarters. The seasonally adjusted estimate increased 6% this quarter.

Graph: Construction - CGOP and Wages


The trend estimate for sales of goods and services increased 1% in each of the latest two quarters following decreases in the previous five quarters. The seasonally adjusted estimate increased 2% this quarter.

Graph: Construction - Sales



WHOLESALE TRADE

The trend estimate for company gross operating profits increased in each of the latest two quarters following a marginal decrease in the previous quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate increased 10% this quarter, following a decrease of 8% in the previous quarter. Both the trend and seasonally adjusted estimates for wages and salaries have increased steadily over the past thirteen quarters.

Graph: Wholesale Trade - CGOP and Wages


The trend estimates for sales of goods and services has been increasing slightly for the past four quarters. The seasonally adjusted estimate increased 2% this quarter. The trend estimate for inventories increased 2% this quarter, continuing the build up over the past thirteen quarters. This quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate increased 1%.

Graph: Wholesale Trade - Inventories and Sales



RETAIL TRADE

The trend estimate for company gross operating profits decreased in each of the latest three quarters. The seasonally adjusted estimate increased 9% this quarter following a decrease of 8% in the previous quarter. The trend estimate for wages and salaries increased marginally this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate decreased 1% this quarter.

Graph: Retail Trade - CGOP and Wages


The trend estimate for sales of goods and services increased between 1% and 2% in each of the past ten quarters. The seasonally adjusted estimate increased 1% this quarter. Trend estimates of inventories have increased over the last six quarters, with a 2% seasonally adjusted increase this quarter.

Graph: Retail Trade - Inventories and Sales



TRANSPORT AND STORAGE

The trend estimate for company gross operating profits has risen in each of the latest two quarters after falls in the two previous quarters. The seasonally adjusted estimate increased 9% this quarter after falling 2% the previous quarter. Trend estimates for wages and salaries have increased between 1.5% and 3% in each of the past eight quarters following an extended period of weaker growth. The seasonally adjusted estimate increased 1% this quarter.

Graph: Transport and Storage - CGOP and Wages


The trend estimate of sales of goods and services increased 1% this quarter continuing the steady growth over the previous seven quarters. The seasonally adjusted estimate increased marginally this quarter.

Graph: Transport and Storage - Sales



PROPERTY AND BUSINESS SERVICES

The trend estimate for company gross operating profits decreased in each of the last four quarters following increases in the previous six quarters. The seasonally adjusted estimate increased 6% this quarter after a 9% fall the previous quarter. The trend estimate for wages and salaries has been increasing steadily, with increases between 1.5% and 3% in each of the past nine quarters. The seasonally adjusted estimate increased 2% this quarter.

Graph: Property and Business Services - CGOP and Wages


The trend estimate of sales of goods and services has been relatively flat for six quarters. The seasonally adjusted estimate increased 2% this quarter after decreases in each of the previous two quarters.

Graph: Property and Business Services - Sales

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