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3401.0.55.001 - Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia, Sep 2005  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 20/10/2005  First Issue
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DATA NOTES

The estimates presented in this publication provide an early indication of short-term visitor arrival movements prior to final data becoming available for the reference month. Monthly data prior to the reference month are final estimates. The ABS encourages users of these data to refer to the ABS monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0) for final ABS estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for the reference period. Final estimates for September 2005 will be released on 7 November 2005.


This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 6 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


Calculations of percentage and numeric change as shown in the Main Features of this publication are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 10 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


Original estimates are influenced by seasonal and one-off or irregular factors which may distort interpretations of the underlying growth in the series. Therefore, the ABS encourages the use of the trend estimates for time series analysis. See the Demography Working Paper 2004/2 - Interpretation and Use of Overseas Arrivals and Departures Estimates (cat. no. 3106.0.55.002).


Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates are subject to revision, particularly at the current end of the series, due to additional original information becoming available. See paragraphs 14 and 17 of the Explanatory Notes.



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.



MAIN FEATURES


TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia for September 2005 (460,100 movements) increased by 0.3% compared with August 2005 (458,500 movements). This followed monthly increases of 0.2% for July 2005 and 0.4% for August 2005.


Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 0.3% lower than when the series last peaked in February 2005 (461,400 movements). Prior to that month, short-term visitor arrivals had increased each month from February 2004 (424,900 movements).



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia for September 2005 (458,600 movements) decreased by 2.0% compared with August 2005 (468,200 movements). This followed monthly increases of 1.2% for July 2005 and 2.2% for August 2005.

Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Visitor arrivals Short-term




ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original movement terms there were an estimated 414,000 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during September 2005.

TABLE 1: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT(a), VISITOR ARRIVALS - September 2005

Sep 05
Aug 05 to Sep 05
Sep 04 to Sep 05
'000
% change
% change

Trend
460.1
0.3
4.7
Seasonally adjusted
458.6
-2.0
. .
Original
414.0
. .
. .

. . not applicable
(a) Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates may be revised each month. See paragraphs 14 and 17 of Explanatory Notes.

TABLE 2: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT(a), VISITOR ARRIVALS - Country of Residence(b)

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Aug 05
Sep 05
Aug 05 to Sep 05
Sep 04 to Sep 05
Aug 05
Sep 05
Aug 05 to Sep 05
Sep 05
Country of residence
'000
'000
% change
% change
'000
'000
% change
'000

OCEANIA & ANTARCTICA
New Zealand
90.6
89.9
-0.8
2.5
91.3
89.6
-1.8
108.7
Total
101.5
100.9
-0.6
2.9
102.0
101.0
-1.0
119.3
NORTH-WEST EUROPE
Germany
12.7
12.8
0.8
8.6
13.0
12.2
-6.6
11.8
Netherlands
4.3
4.3
0.6
7.1
4.5
4.3
-4.3
4.2
Sweden
2.9
3.0
1.0
10.6
3.3
2.8
-15.1
2.2
Switzerland
3.5
3.5
-1.3
4.9
3.6
3.2
-10.3
3.7
United Kingdom
58.6
58.5
-0.1
4.8
60.4
58.2
-3.6
42.7
Total
99.3
99.4
0.1
6.6
102.5
97.2
-5.1
78.7
SOUTHERN & EASTERN EUROPE
Italy
4.2
4.1
-0.4
2.1
4.2
4.0
-4.8
3.7
Total
9.9
9.9
-0.4
4.7
10.5
9.6
-7.8
8.8
NORTH AFRICA & THE MIDDLE EAST
Total
5.9
5.9
-0.1
9.9
6.4
5.7
-11.8
4.4
SOUTH-EAST ASIA
Indonesia
6.6
6.6
-0.4
-1.1
6.5
7.0
7.8
5.9
Malaysia
13.5
13.0
-3.6
-15.5
16.2
9.9
-38.7
12.0
Philippines
2.8
2.8
-0.4
9.3
2.9
2.8
-2.3
2.7
Singapore
23.3
23.2
-0.2
10.5
23.0
23.0
0.3
18.3
Thailand
6.5
6.5
-0.3
1.2
6.7
6.3
-6.5
4.9
Total
55.2
54.7
-0.9
1.2
57.6
51.7
-10.3
45.9
NORTH-EAST ASIA
China
22.1
22.7
2.4
2.9
22.5
22.8
1.2
17.0
Japan
55.5
57.2
3.1
-6.0
56.6
60.4
6.6
55.6
Korea
21.2
20.9
-1.0
15.2
21.0
21.4
1.9
15.3
Taiwan
9.9
10.0
1.3
22.4
9.9
10.4
4.2
8.4
Total
123.0
125.2
1.8
3.5
124.4
128.9
3.6
107.6
AMERICAS
Canada
9.0
9.0
0.5
7.6
9.3
9.3
-0.2
6.6
United States of America
38.1
38.0
-0.2
5.4
38.7
37.3
-3.5
27.1
Total
50.1
50.1
0.1
7.0
51.1
49.8
-2.5
36.3
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
South Africa
4.2
4.3
1.4
7.0
4.3
4.6
6.3
4.7
Total
5.8
6.0
2.8
12.2
6.0
6.5
8.3
6.0
Total(c)
458.5
460.1
0.3
4.7
468.2
458.6
-2.0
414.0

(a) This table presents a summary of the most recent overseas arrivals and departures estimates. Time series data for months earlier than those presented in this table are available as AusStats time series spreadsheets.
(b) Data for the current month are statistically modelled on passport movements and past arrival trends from passenger cards. Monthly data prior to the current month are estimates based on passenger card data.
(c) Includes Southern and Central Asia and not stated/inadequately described.

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