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5368.0 - International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, May 2005  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 04/07/2005   
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MAY KEY FIGURES

March 2005
April 2005
May 2005
Apr 05 to May 05
$m
$m
$m
% change

Trend

Balance on goods & services
-2,340
-1,672
-1,596
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
13,603
14,365
14,516
1
Debits (imports of goods & services)
15,943
16,037
16,112
-

Seasonally Adjusted

Balance on goods & services
-2,508
-1,558
-1,556
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
13,355
14,484
14,727
2
Debits (imports of goods & services)
15,863
16,042
16,283
2

. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

Balance on goods and services
Graph: Balance on goods and services



MAY KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES
  • The provisional trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,596m in May 2005, a decrease of $76m on the deficit in April.
  • Goods and services credits rose $151m (1%) to $14,516m. Non-rural and other goods rose $155m (2%) and rural goods rose $14m (1%). Services credits fell $18m (1%).
  • Goods and services debits rose $75m to $16,112m. Intermediate and other goods rose $63m (1%) and capital goods rose $38m (1%), while consumption goods fell $11m. Services debits fell $15m.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,556m in May, a marginal decrease of $2m on the deficit in April.
  • Goods and services credits rose $243m (2%) to $14,727m. Non-rural and other goods rose $218m (2%), and rural goods rose $8m. Services credits rose $17m (1%).
  • Goods and services debits rose $241m (2%) to $16,283m. Intermediate and other goods rose $222m (4%), consumption goods rose $26m (1%) and capital goods rose $1m. Services debits fell $8m.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original terms, the May balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,336m, a decrease of $206m on the deficit in April. Goods and services credits rose $401m (3%) and goods and services debits rose $195m (1%).
  • In the eleven months to May, exports of non-rural and other goods were up $15.1b (20%) and rural goods were up $1.6b (7%) on the corresponding period in 2003-04.


NOTES



REVISIONS

Revisions were made to incorporate the latest available data relating to merchandise trade and the quarterly Survey of International Trade in Services. In original terms, these revisions have increased the deficit on goods and services for the ten months to April 2005 by $229m.



FEATURE ARTICLE

A feature article providing updated information on export and import currencies will be released on the ABS web site <http://www.abs.gov.au> with the June issue of this publication.


This article will identify the major invoice currencies used for Australia's exports and imports and analyse any changes in their composition over the last five calendar years. Additionally, for the five quarters from March quarter 2004 to March quarter 2005, the article will examine currency invoices for major commodities and commodity groups, classified to the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC Rev 3).


Similar articles have appeared in the March quarter 1998, March quarter 2001 and March quarter 2003 issues of International Merchandise Trade, Australia (ABS cat. no. 5422.0). To access these articles on the web site select: Themes then Economy then International Trade then Topics of Interest.



TREND ESTIMATES

As advised in the previous issue of this publication, an estimated trend break correction of $600m has been applied in April 2005 as a result of the significant increase in the price of some non-rural export commodities. Once a minimum of three months data after the trend break are available, the size of the trend break will be measured using time series techniques and may be revised.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Tom Jebbink on Canberra (02) 62525540.



ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in May 2005 was a deficit of $1,596m, a decrease of $76m on the deficit in April.


In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in May 2005 was a deficit of $1,556m, a marginal decrease of $2m on the deficit in April.



EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $151m (1%) between April and May to $14,516m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $243m (2%) to $14,727m. Non-rural and other goods rose $218m (2%), rural goods rose $8m and services credits rose $17m (1%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS
Graph: Goods Credits



Rural goods

The trend estimate of rural goods exports rose $14m (1%) to $2,055m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $8m to $2,097m.


In original terms, exports of rural goods rose $125m (6%) to $2,221m.


The main movement in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms was wool and sheepskins, up $39m (17%), in contrast to an average April to May fall of 2% over the previous three years.


Offsetting this effect were:

  • other rural, up $83m (9%), compared with an average April to May rise of 16% over the previous three years
  • cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $52m (14%), compared with an average April to May fall of (4%) over the previous three years
  • meat and meat preparations, up $55m (9%), compared with an average April to May rise of (12%) over the previous three years.

Exports of goods continued

Non-rural and other goods

The trend estimate of non-rural and other goods exports rose $155m (2%) to $9,525m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural and other goods rose $218m (2%) to $9,729m.


In original terms, exports of non-rural and other goods rose $512m (5%) to $9,929m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • other goods, up $258m (42%), compared with an average April to May rise of 8% over the previous three years (largely driven by increased volumes of non-monetary gold between April and May)
  • other non-rural, up $132m (16%), compared with an average April to May rise of 1% over the previous three years
  • coal, coke and briquettes, up $96m (5%), compared with an average April to May rise of 2% over the previous three years
  • other mineral fuels, up $43m (4%), in contrast to an average April to May fall of 1% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were:
  • metals (excluding gold), down $151m (18%), in contrast to an average April to May rise of 5% over the previous three years
  • transport equipment, down $92m (17%), in contrast to an average April to May rise of 12% over the previous three years.

Exports of services
SERVICES CREDITS
Graph: Services Credits



In trend terms, services credits fell $18m (1%) to $2,936m.


Seasonally adjusted, services credits rose $17m (1%) to $2,901m.


Movements in the seasonally adjusted component contributing to the rise were:

  • travel services, up $12m (1%)
  • other services, up $11m (1%).

Partly offsetting these effects was other transportation services, down $5m (1%).


Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services credits rose $12m (1%) to $1,787m.



IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $75m between April and May to $16,112m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $241m (2%) to $16,283m.


Intermediate and other goods rose $222m (4%), consumption goods rose $26m (1%) and capital goods rose $1m while services debits fell $8m.


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS
Graph: GOODS DEBITS



Consumption goods

The trend estimate of imports of consumption goods fell $11m to $4,019m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $26m (1%) to $3,998m.


In original terms, imports of consumption goods fell $197m (5%) to $3,684m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • consumption goods n.e.s., up marginally, in contrast to an average April to May fall of 6% over the previous three years
  • toys, books and leisure goods, up $56m (22%), compared with an average April to May rise of 8% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were:
  • non-industrial transport equipment, down $128m (11%), in contrast to an average April to May rise of 3% over the previous three years
  • food and beverages, down $33m (7%), compared with an average April to May fall of 1% over the previous three years.

Capital goods

The trend estimate of imports of capital goods rose $38m (1%) to $3,063m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose marginally to $3,144m.


In original terms, imports of capital goods rose $369m (13%) to $3,201m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the marginal rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • machinery and industrial equipment, up $133m (13%), compared with an average April to May rise of 5% over the previous three years
  • ADP equipment, up $79m (16%), compared with an average April to May rise of 1% over the previous three years
  • civil aircraft, up $88m, compared with lower April to May rises over the previous three years.

Offsetting these effects were:
  • industrial transport equipment n.e.s, up $45m (10%), compared with an average April to May rise of 42% over the previous three years
  • telecommunications equipment, up $11m (3%), compared with an average April to May rise of 24% over the previous three years.

Intermediate and Other Goods

The trend estimate of imports of intermediate and other goods rose $63m (1%) to $5,906m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, intermediate and other goods imports rose $222m (4%) to $6,033m.


In original terms, imports of intermediate and other goods rose $114m (2%) to $6,096m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • fuels and lubricants, up $123m (9%), compared with an average April to May rise of 1% over the previous three years (while crude petroleum imports fell in both price and volume terms between April and May, there were large increases in imports of refined petroleum oils)
  • other goods, up $62m (16%), in contrast to an average April to May fall of 8% over the previous three years
  • iron and steel, up $50m (17%), compared with an average April to May rise of 9% over the previous three years
  • primary industrial supplies n.e.s., up $3m (3%), in contrast to an average April to May fall of 13% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were:
  • processed industrial supplies n.e.s., down $134m (10%), compared with an average April to May fall of 6% over the previous three years
  • parts for transport equipment, down $18m (3%), in contrast to an average April to May rise of 1% over the previous three years.

Imports of services
SERVICES DEBITS
Graph: SERVICES DEBITS



In trend terms, services debits fell $15m to $3,124m.


Seasonally adjusted, services debits fell $8m to $3,108m.


The main movement in the seasonally adjusted component contributing to this fall was freight transportation services, down $19m (3%).


Partly offsetting this effect was other services, up $6m (1%).


Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services debits fell $26m (2%) to $1,561m.


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