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5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Sep 2007  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 29/11/2007   
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SEPTEMBER KEY FIGURES

Sep Qtr 07
Jun Qtr 07 to Sep Qtr 07
Sep Qtr 06 to Sep Qtr 07
$m
% change
% change

Trend estimates(a)
Total new capital expenditure
20 406
1.2
12.2
Buildings & structures
8 727
0.6
15.5
Equipment, plant & machinery
11 713
1.8
9.9
Seasonally adjusted(a)
Total new capital expenditure
19 638
-6.5
9.0
Buildings & structures
8 272
-9.4
11.6
Equipment, plant & machinery
11 495
-2.3
7.8

(a) In volume terms.

New Capital Expenditure, in volume terms
Graph: New Capital Expenditure in Volume Terms



SEPTEMBER KEY POINTS


ACTUAL EXPENDITURE (VOLUME TERMS)
  • The trend estimate for total new capital expenditure (in volume terms) increased by 1.2% in the September quarter 2007 while the seasonally adjusted estimate decreased by 6.5%.
  • The equipment, plant and machinery trend volume estimate increased 1.8% in the September quarter 2007. In seasonally adjusted terms the estimate fell by 2.3%.
  • The trend estimate for buildings and structures increased 0.6% this quarter while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell by 9.4%.


EXPECTED EXPENDITURE (CURRENT TERMS)
  • This issue includes the fourth estimate for 2007-08.
  • The fourth estimate for 2007-08 is $83,834m. This is 20.1% higher than the fourth estimate for 2006-07. Estimate 4 is 6.0% higher than the third estimate for 2007-08.
  • See pages 6 to 9 for further commentary on expectations data.


NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE (QUARTER) Release Date
December 2007 28 February 2008
March 2008 29 May 2008



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

A new reference year has typically been updated annually every June quarter. From 2007 onwards the updating of the reference year will be completed in the September quarter each year. In September 2007 the new reference year will be 2005-06 for chain volume estimates. This has resulted in revisions to growth rates in quarters following 2005-06 but has preserved additivity in those quarters. For earlier periods re-referencing affects the levels of, but not the movements in, chain volume estimates.


Recently, the ABS has implemented improved methods of producing seasonally adjusted estimates, focused on the application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling techniques. The revision properties of the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates can be improved by the use of ARIMA modelling. ARIMA modelling relies on the characteristics of the series being analysed to project future period data. The projected values are temporary, intermediate values, that are only used internally to improve the estimation of the seasonal factors. The projected data do not affect the original estimates and are discarded at the end of the seasonal adjustment process. This collection will use, from the 2007 annual seasonal reanalysis, concurrent seasonal adjustment with ARIMA modelling where applicable to reduce the level of revision to seasonally adjusted capital expenditure estimates.



REVISIONS IN THIS ISSUE

The trend break adjustment required for the March 2007 quarter volume estimates was not applied to the individual State building and structures series published last quarter. (Plant and equipment and total trend estimates were correct). The effect of this is that calculated movements for all quarters except the December to March movement were correct, but the levels prior to March quarter were too high. This is correct for all series except Northern Territory movements between December 1999 and March 2000 and December 2000 and March 2001 where the published movements were incorrect due to an error in sourcing these cells. December 2006 to March 2007 movements should not be used as estimates up to and including December 2006 exclude Telstra, whereas, the March 2007 and subsequent estimates include Telstra. Remaining revisions to December quarter data are a result of the replacement of previously imputed data, which is a normal occurrence, along with changes due to the introduction of the new reference year.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Scott Johnston on Sydney (02) 9268 4357.


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