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5368.0 - International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, Aug 2006  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 04/10/2006   
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AUGUST KEY FIGURES

June 2006
July 2006
August 2006
Jul 06 to Aug 06
$m
$m
$m
% change

TREND

Balance on goods and services
-771
-576
-469
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
17 720
17 930
18 031
1
Debits (imports of goods & services)
18 491
18 506
18 500
-

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

Balance on goods and services
-361
-320
-208
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
18 381
17 793
18 037
1
Debits (imports of goods & services)
18 742
18 113
18 245
1

. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

Balance on goods and services
Graph: Balance on goods and services



AUGUST KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES
  • The provisional trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $469m in August 2006, a decrease of $107m on the revised deficit in July.
  • Goods and services credits rose $101m (1%) to $18,031m. Goods and services debits fell $6m to $18,500m.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $208m in August, a decrease of $112m on the revised deficit in July.
  • Goods and services credits rose $244m (1%) to $18,037m. Non-rural and other goods rose $182m (2%) and rural goods rose $47m (2%). Services credits rose $15m.
  • Goods and services debits rose $132m (1%) to $18,245m. Capital goods rose $184m (6%), consumption goods rose $18m, while intermediate and other goods fell $84m (1%). Services debits rose $14m.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original terms, the August balance on goods and services was a deficit of $733m, a turnaround of $892m on the revised surplus in July. Goods and services credits rose $27m and goods and services debits rose $919m (5%).
  • In the two months to August, exports of non-rural and other goods were up $4.1b (20%) and rural goods were up $0.3b (8%) on the corresponding period in 2005-06.


NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE Release Date
September 2006 2 November 2006
October 2006 29 November 2006
November 2006 10 January 2007
December 2006 2 February 2007
January 2007 6 March 2007
February 2007 3 April 2007



REVISIONS

Historical revisions were made to incorporate the latest available data relating to merchandise trade (back to 2000-01) and services. The services revisions are described on page 4 of this publication. These revisions will be reflected in the September quarter issues of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0) and National Income, Expenditure and Product, Australia (cat. no. 5206.0).


In original terms, these revisions have:

  • turned the deficit on goods and services for July 2006 of $107m into a surplus of $159m
  • decreased the deficit on goods and services for 2005-06 by $2.0b, where the services contribution was $1.9b.


CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

From this issue, the services credits and debits series incorporate new methodologies and data sources. Estimates for earlier periods have been recompiled to maintain consistency in the time series. The major changes have been applied to education related travel credits (which was revised back to January 1997) and other business services credits and debits (which were revised back to July 1991). Travel services were also revised back to July 1975 for other minor changes. There have been consequential changes to the tourism related services series.

Because estimates for earlier periods have been recompiled, a seasonal re-analysis of all services series has been undertaken.

While revisions to other business services credits and debits were of a similar magnitude, the revision to travel credits was significantly larger than the revision to travel debits. As a result, there was a positive impact on the balance of services with the balance for 2005–06 revised from a deficit of $703m to a surplus of $1,228m.

The trade in services data cubes, listed under Time Series Data on page 5, present data on a calendar and financial year basis. The financial year data will be updated as usual with the September issue of this publication to reflect the historical revisions. The calendar year data which are normally updated with the March issue of this publication, will be updated to reflect the historical revisions as soon as practical, possibly with the November issue.

FEATURE ARTICLE

A feature article, Changes to International Trade in Services Statistics, August 2006, detailing the changes to services credits and debits, has been released concurrently with this issue. The article can be accessed on the ABS web site <http://www.abs.gov.au> from the summary page of this issue.


CHANGES TO FORTHCOMING ISSUES

Annual seasonal re-analysis


Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of goods and services will be revised in the September 2006 issue of this publication as a result of the annual seasonal re-analysis. This re-analysis reviews the seasonal and trading day factors in more detail than is possible in the monthly processing cycle. Revisions to the services series should be minimal as these series were re-analysed following the historical revisions described in 'Changes in this issue', above.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Tom Jebbink on Canberra (02) 62525540.



ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in August 2006 was a deficit of $469m, a decrease of $107m on the deficit in July.


In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in August 2006 was a deficit of $208m, a decrease of $112m on the deficit in July.



EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $101m (1%) between July and August to $18,031m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $244m (1%) to $18,037m. Non-rural goods rose $126m (1%), other goods rose $56m (6%) and rural goods rose $47m (2%). Services credits rose $15m.


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS
Graph: Goods Credits



RURAL GOODS

The trend estimate of rural goods exports rose $17m (1%) to $2,217m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $47m (2%) to $2,264m.


The movements in the seasonally adjusted components contributing to this rise were:

  • cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $63m (14%)
  • meat and meat preparations, up $36m (6%).

Partly offsetting these effects were:
  • wool and sheepskins, down $33m (14%)
  • other rural, down $19m (2%).

In original terms, exports of rural goods rose $73m (3%) to $2,272m.


NON-RURAL GOODS

The trend estimate of non-rural goods exports rose $86m (1%) to $10,931m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $126m (1%) to $10,982m.


The main movements in the seasonally adjusted components contributing to the rise were:

  • transport equipment, up $115m (37%)
  • other non-rural, up $64m (6%)
  • coal, coke and briquettes, up $42m (2%)
  • metal ores and minerals, up $26m (1%).

Partly offsetting these effects were:
  • other mineral fuels, down $75m (6%)
  • other manufactures, down $40m (3%).

In original terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $182m (2%) to $11,069m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • other non-rural, up $224m (20%), compared to an average July to August rise of 6% over the previous three years, due largely to an increase in confidential components.
  • transport equipment, up $133m (45%), compared to an average July to August rise of 12% over the previous three years, of which:
      • road vehicles, up $126m (57%), largely on increased volumes.
      • other transport equipment, up $7m (9%).

OTHER GOODS

The trend estimate of other goods exports fell $22m (2%) to $1,174m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of other goods rose $56m (6%) to $1,070m.


The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted series was non-monetary gold, up $103m (13%) partly offset by a fall in goods for processing, down $57m (84%).


In original terms, exports of other goods rose $81m (8%) to $1,086m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS
Graph: Services Credits



In trend terms, services credits rose $20m (1%) to $3,709m.


Seasonally adjusted, services credits rose $15m to $3,721m.


All components contributed to the rise in the seasonally adjusted series with:

  • travel services, up $9m
  • transportation services, up $4m (1%)
  • other services, up $2m.

Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services credits fell $9m to $2,364m. This series is seasonally adjusted independently to the series that comprise services credits.



IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits fell $6m between July and August to $18,500m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $132m (1%) to $18,245m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $208m (3%), capital goods rose $184m (6%) and consumption goods rose $18m while other goods fell $292m (40%). Services debits rose $14m.


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS
Graph: Goods Debits



CONSUMPTION GOODS

The trend estimate of imports of consumption goods rose $29m (1%) to $4,460m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $18m to $4,437m.


The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

  • non-industrial transport equipment, up $69m (6%)
  • household electrical items, up $19m (5%)
  • food and beverages, mainly for consumption, up $7m (1%).

Largely offsetting these effects were:
  • consumption goods n.e.s., down $62m (4%)
  • textiles, clothing and footwear, down $17m (3%).

In original terms, imports of consumption goods rose $380m (9%) to $4,766m.


CAPITAL GOODS

The trend estimate of imports of capital goods fell $34m (1%) to $3,214m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $184m (6%) to $3,235m.


The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

  • civil aircraft, up $177m
  • industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $111m (35%).

Partly offsetting these effects were:
  • capital goods n.e.s., down $61m (13%).
  • telecommunications equipment, down $50m (11%).

In original terms, imports of capital goods rose $366m (12%) to $3,383m.


INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

The trend estimate of imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $21m to $6,623m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, intermediate and other merchandise goods imports rose $208m (3%) to $6,597m.


The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

  • fuels and lubricants, up $187m (10%)
  • foods and beverages, mainly for industry, up $31m (69%)
  • primary industrial supplies n.e.s., up $31m (31%).

Partly offsetting these effects were:
  • other merchandise goods, down $70m (45%)
  • organic and inorganic chemicals, down $21m (6%).

In original terms, intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $619m (10%) to $6,863m.


OTHER GOODS

The trend estimate of imports of other goods fell $37m (5%) to $674m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, other goods imports fell $292m (40%) to $443m.


The components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

  • non-monetary gold, down $218m (48%)
  • goods for processing, down $74m (53%).

In original terms, other goods imports fell $293m (40%) to $445m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS
Graph: Services Debits



In trend terms, services debits rose $15m to $3,529m.


Seasonally adjusted, services debits rose $14m to $3,533m.


The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was transportation services, up $13m (1%).


Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services debits rose $13m (1%) to $1,803m. This series is seasonally adjusted independently to the series that comprise services debits.


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