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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Mar 2006  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 09/05/2006   
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MARCH KEY FIGURES

Mar '06
Feb '06 to Mar '06
Mar '05 to Mar '06
'000
% change
% change

Short-term visitor arrivals
Trend
466.4
0.7
1.5
Seasonally adjusted
466.7
-1.0
. .
Original
476.0
. .
. .
Short-term resident departures
Trend(a)
384.7
-0.8
-0.9
Seasonally adjusted
379.3
-0.9
. .
Original
361.5
. .
. .

. . not applicable
(a) Break in trend series from October 2005.

Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Visitor arrivals Short-term

Resident departures, Short-term
Graph: Resident departures Short-term



MARCH KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES

  • Trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during March 2006 (466,400 movements) increased by 0.7% compared with February 2006. This followed monthly increases of 0.5% for January 2006 and 0.6% for February 2006.
  • Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 2.1% higher than when the series last troughed in November 2005 (457,000 movements) and 1.5% higher than in March 2005.
  • During March 2006, short-term resident departures (384,700 movements) decreased by 0.8% compared with February 2006. This followed monthly decreases of 0.5% for January 2006 and 0.7% for February 2006.
  • Short-term resident departures have continued to decline since the trend break in October 2005.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • Seasonally adjusted estimates for short-term visitor arrivals during March 2006 (466,700 movements) decreased by 1.0% compared with February 2006 and followed monthly increases of 1.4% for January 2006 and 1.8% for February 2006.
  • Short-term resident departures for March 2006 (379,300 movements) decreased by 0.9% compared with February 2006 and followed monthly decreases of 4.3% for January 2006 and 1.7% for February 2006.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original movement terms, there were 476,000 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia and 361,500 short-term resident departures from Australia during March 2006.


NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE Release Date
April 2006 1 June 2006
May 2006 6 July 2006
June 2006 3 August 2006
July 2006 4 September 2006
August 2006 5 October 2006
September 2006 6 November 2006



EARLY ESTIMATES

Early estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for April 2006 will be available on the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) web site on 17 May 2006. These estimates can be accessed by going to the ABS web site at <http://www.abs.gov.au>. Select All statistics - Access to all ABS products & statistics, then By Catalogue Number, then 3. Demography, then 34. Migration. Choose Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0.55.001).



DATA NOTES

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


The statistics in this publication have been rounded to the nearest 100 for short-term movements and to the nearest 10 for permanent and long-term movements. As a result, sums of the components may not add exactly to totals. Analysis featured in the Key Points and Main Features of this publication is based on unrounded data. Calculations made on rounded data may differ to those published.



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

Technical Note Trend Revisions - The estimate used in the short-term resident departures scenario has been revised from 3.1% to 3.2%. This figure represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.



MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in March 2006 (466,400 movements) were 1.5% higher than in March 2005 and 0.7% higher than in February 2006. Short-term visitor arrivals are currently 2.1% higher than when the series last troughed in November 2005 (457,000 movements).


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during March 2006. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the percentage change in trend compared with February 2006 and March 2005.

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Major Source Countries - March 2006

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Feb 06 to Mar 06
Mar 05 to Mar 06
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
90.9
88.2
81.6
-0.2
-2.9
United Kingdom
61.0
62.0
78.4
1.8
1.8
Japan
58.5
57.9
64.4
-0.6
4.2
United States of America
38.8
38.7
42.5
2.1
2.4
China
26.5
27.0
21.5
1.9
21.3
Korea
20.2
20.8
19.0
1.0
-5.3
Singapore
20.8
20.4
18.6
-0.3
-9.2
Germany
12.5
12.6
14.5
0.7
5.3
Hong Kong
13.9
13.9
12.0
1.2
7.5
Canada
9.3
9.5
11.9
2.7
5.2



SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia in March 2006 (384,700 movements) were 0.8% lower than in February 2006. Short-term resident departures have continued to decline since the trend break in October 2005.


The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during March 2006. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the percentage change in trend compared with February 2006 and March 2005.


A trend break was introduced from October 2005 (see Explanatory Note 22). In original terms, short-term resident departures to Indonesia ranked 4th in September 2005 and fell from the top ten in December 2006. In March 2006 short-term resident departures to Indonesia returned to the top ten destinations in 10th position.

Short-term Resident Departures, Major Destinations - March 2006

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Feb 06 to Mar 06
Mar 05 to Mar 06
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
69.7
68.5
76.3
-0.3
-0.2
United States of America
36.0
36.0
33.4
-0.3
6.3
United Kingdom
29.6
29.2
24.2
-2.9
-8.3
Singapore
17.6
18.6
19.4
1.1
16.4
Thailand
22.8
22.3
19.0
1.7
48.5
Hong Kong
15.7
17.1
18.9
1.4
4.1
China
17.9
16.8
17.6
-2.0
-6.3
Malaysia
14.4
14.1
13.7
-0.4
0.9
Fiji
16.1
14.7
13.5
-1.6
-1.9
Indonesia
15.7
15.1
13.3
-2.6
-49.8



SHORT-TERM TRAVEL - CHINA

Short-term visitor arrivals

Trend estimates for March 2006 show the number of short-term visitor arrivals from China represented 6% (26,500 movements) of all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia. Over the last ten years the series has mainly followed an upward trend. The current month (March 2006) is the high point in the series while the low point over the ten year period was in March 1996 (4,200 movements). In March 2006 the trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals from China was 21% higher than in March 2005.

CHINA, Short-term Visitor Arrival
Graph: CHINA, Short-term Visitor Arrival



In original terms, short-term visitor arrivals from China in March 2006 stated holiday (43%) as the main reason for journey followed by business (19%) and visiting friends and relatives (14%). In comparison, the main reasons for journey for all short-term visitors to Australia were holiday (52%), visiting friends and relatives (21%), and business (12%). The median age of short-term visitor arrivals from China was 43 years (40 years for all visitors) and the median intended duration of stay was 8 days (10 days for all visitors).


New South Wales (44%), Victoria (30%), Queensland (18%) and Western Australia (4%) were the main states/territories of intended stay for short-term visitors from China in March 2006. The main destinations for all short-term visitors to Australia were New South Wales (40%), Queensland (26%), Victoria (20%) and Western Australia (9%).


Short-term resident departures

Trend estimates for March 2006 show the number of short-term resident departures to China represented 5% (17,900 movements) of all short-term resident departures. Over the last ten years the trend series has mainly been upwards, with consistently strong growth recorded between December 2003 and April 2005. From September 2005 the series has declined. The high point in the series was in August 2005 (20,500 movements) while the low point over the ten year period was in July 1996 (4,100 movements). In March 2006 the trend estimate for short-term resident departures to China was 6% lower than in March 2005.

CHINA, Short-term Resident Departures
Graph: CHINA, Short-term Resident Departures



In original terms, 38% of Australian residents travelling to China in March 2006 stated business as their main reason for journey, followed by holiday (28%) and visiting friends and relatives (21%). In comparison, the main reasons for journey for all residents departing Australia short-term were holiday (44%), visiting friends and relatives (25%) and business (18%). The median age of short-term residents departing to China was 44 years (also 44 years for all short-term resident departures) and the median intended duration of stay was 15 days (14 days for all short-term resident departures).



PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 11,010 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during March 2006, a decrease of 5.8% compared with March 2005 (11,690 movements). People born in the United Kingdom accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (17%), followed by people born in New Zealand (15%), India (10%) and China (9%).


There were 5,560 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during March 2006, an increase of 4.3% compared with March 2005 (5,330 movements).


Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Therefore, care should be taken when using long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).



STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates add to the understanding of overseas arrivals and departures (OAD) statistics. Seasonally adjusted estimates allow users to analyse short-term movements including irregular impacts on the series, while trend estimates provide a better method to analyse and monitor the underlying direction of the short-term movement series. In most cases the trend series is the best source of information on the long-term direction of these statistics.



SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Selected source countries

The graph for the United Kingdom illustrates the long-term increase in the trend series for visitor arrivals. For New Zealand the graph shows, in the trend series, a recent plateau in growth following strong increases which commenced in early 2003. The graph for Japan shows the significant impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) on the seasonally adjusted arrivals series in mid-2003.

United Kingdom
Graph: Short-Term visitor arrivals - United Kingdom
New Zealand
Graph: Short-Term visitor arrivals - New Zealand
Japan
Graph: Short-Term visitor arrivals - Japan




SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

Selected destinations

For residents departing to the United States of America the graph illustrates the effect of the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in that country on short-term departures of Australian residents to the United States of America. The graph for New Zealand illustrates that the trend series for departures of Australian residents, which had experienced strong long-term growth, has plateaued since mid 2004. For Indonesia the graph shows the impact of the 12 October 2002 Bali bombing and the reduced level of travel experienced in the next twelve months. The effect of the 1 October 2005 Bali bombing is also evident and a new break in the trend series has been introduced.

United States of America
Graph: Short-Term resident departures - United States of America
New Zealand
Graph: Short-Term resident departures - New Zealand
Indonesia
Graph: Short-Term resident departures - Indonesia


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