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5676.0 - Business Indicators, Australia, Jun 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 30/08/2004   
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JUNE KEY FIGURES

Mar Qtr 04 to Jun Qtr 04
Jun Qtr 03 to Jun Qtr 04
%
%

Sales of goods & services (Chain vol. meas.)
Manufacturing
Trend
0.4
3.4
Seasonally Adjusted
-1.2
3.3
Wholesale trade
Trend
2.0
10.8
Seasonally Adjusted
0.6
10.5
Inventories (Chain vol. meas.)
Trend
1.2
6.3
Seasonally Adjusted
1.1
6.6
Company profits before income tax
Trend
-2.1
4.4
Seasonally Adjusted
4.1
8.7
Company gross operating profits
Trend
3.7
15.3
Seasonally Adjusted
10.3
24.5
Wages and salaries
Seasonally Adjusted
1.1
6.2

Inventories (volume terms), Trend estimates - Quarterly change

Graph: Inventories (volume terms)

Company gross operating profits (current prices), Trend estimates - Quarterly change

Graph: Company gross operating profits


JUNE KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES

  • The trend estimate (in volume terms) for inventories increased 1.2% in the June quarter 2004, compared with an increase of 1.4% in the March quarter 2004. The trend estimate (in volume terms) for sales of goods and services in Manufacturing has increased in the latest four quarters while Wholesale trade's sales of goods and services has continued the increases shown since March quarter 2001. The trend estimate (in current price terms) for company gross operating profits grew by 3.7% this quarter.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate (in volume terms) for inventories increased by 1.1% in the June quarter 2004 (compared with 2.2% in the March quarter 2004), with Wholesale trade the major contributor. Sales of goods and services in Manufacturing decreased by 1.2% while sales in Wholesale trade increased by 0.6%.
  • Company gross operating profits increased by 10.3% this quarter, with all industries other than Retail trade increasing. Growth in all industries has led to a 1.1% increase in wages and salaries.


NOTES

COMPARISON BETWEEN COMPANY GROSS OPERATING PROFITS AND GROSS OPERATING SURPLUS

As has been the case in a number of recent quarters, price changes have had a significant impact on the value of inventories held by Australian businesses. An inventories valuation adjustment (IVA) is applied to the gross operating surplus (GOS) of private non-financial corporations estimate in the Australian National Accounts. As prices for inventories have risen in the June quarter, growth in GOS will be lower after the application of the IVA. No adjustment is made to the company gross operating profits (CGOP) estimate in this publication and, as a result, users should excercise caution when comparing the two series. It should also be noted that there are other significant differences between the two series. In particular, changes are made to GOS when annual benchmarks are applied and different seasonal adjustment methods are used in the two series. Given this, while CGOP movements are an indicator for GOS, it is not the case that the two series will have equivalent seasonally adjusted movements from quarter to quarter.


REVISIONS IN THIS ISSUE

As is usually the case after the initial release of a quarter's estimates, revisions have been made to the March quarter 2004 estimates as a result of responses received or revised after the publication of the previous issue and the use of concurrent seasonal adjustment methodology. In addition, a new base year, 2002-03, has been introduced in the chain volume estimates and these estimates have been re-referenced to 2002-03. This has led to revisions to growth rates from September quarter 2003 onwards. The net effect on March quarter 2004 estimates of these revisions has been to revise the seasonally adjusted chain volume estimates for total inventories by +0.9%, Manufacturing sales of goods and services by +2.5% and wholesale trade sales of goods and services by -1.5%. Seasonally adjusted current price estimates for company gross operating profits have been revised by +1.0% and wages and salaries by -0.3%.


CHANGES IN THE NEXT ISSUE

See 'Changes in the next issue' section on page 3 for further details.


INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Mark Wise on Sydney (02) 9268 4241.


SUMMARY COMMENTARY


CHANGES IN THE NEXT ISSUE

From the September quarter 2004, modelled estimates for employing businesses with less than 20 employees will be introduced for income (other than sales of goods and services), expenses (other than labour costs) and profit. Modelled estimates, using a different technique to that which will be used for income, expenses and profits, are already compiled for inventories. The modelling technique for income, expenses and profits will use ratios of sales of goods and services to each modelled item for small businesses from the annual Economic Activity Survey and these ratios will be applied to sales of goods and services reported by each business in the Quarterly Business Indicators Survey.

The next issue will also see the introduction of gross operating profits estimates by sector. This will result in four different "profits" series appearing in this release:
  • Company profits before income tax. This series is unchanged from the current series except for the addition of modelled data for small businesses and collected data from quasi-corporations (for these purposes quasi-corporations are defined as large and easily identified unincorporated enterprises such as partnerships of companies or unit trusts of companies). It is aimed at presenting profits generated by the corporate sector.
  • Company gross operating profits. This series is unchanged from the current series except for the addition of modelled data for small businesses and collected data from quasi-corporations. It is used as an indicator for gross operating surplus of private non-financial corporations in the quarterly Australian National Accounts.
  • Unincorporated gross operating profits. This new series presents estimates of profits by businesses not in the corporate sector. It is anticipated that this will become an indicator for the quarterly Australian National Accounts series gross mixed income of the household sector.
  • Business gross operating profits. This new series combines gross operating profits series for the incorporated and unincorprated sectors. The aim of this series is to present gross operating profits data on the same scope as sales of goods and services and wages and salaries, thus enabling a more coherent analysis of business performance from quarter to quarter.

These changes will be made to estimates back to and including the March quarter 2001, when the Quarterly Business Indicators Survey commenced.

Users who are interested in further information about these changes, including information on how publication tables will be changed to accommodate the new "profits" series should contact Mark Wise on Sydney (02) 9268 4241 or email <mark.wise@abs.gov.au>.


TOTAL ALL INDUSTRIES
COMPANY GROSS OPERATING PROFITS

Graph: Total all industries, Company gross operating profits



The current price trend estimate for total company gross operating profits has increased for the latest five quarters.

INVENTORIES

Graph: Total all industries, Inventories



The trend estimate for total inventories (in volume terms) increased 1.2% in the June quarter. This continued the build up that occurred throughout 2003, with Wholesale trade being the main driver.


MINING
COMPANY GROSS OPERATING PROFITS

Graph: Mining, Company gross operating profits



The current price trend estimate for company gross operating profits has increased in the latest two quarters after decreasing significantly in the previous four quarters.

INVENTORIES

Graph: Mining, Inventories



The trend estimate for inventories (in volume terms) decreased in the latest two quarters following three quarters of growth.


MANUFACTURING
COMPANY GROSS OPERATING PROFITS

Graph: Manufacturing, Company gross operating profits



The current price trend estimate for company gross operating profits has increased strongly in the latest four quarters.

INVENTORIES

Graph: Manufacturing, Inventories



The trend estimate for inventories (in volume terms) decreased in June quarter 2004 after steady growth in the previous five quarters.

Sales of goods and services

Graph: Manufacturing, Sales of goods and services



The trend estimate for sales of goods and services (in volume terms) has increased over the past four quarters.


CONSTRUCTION
COMPANY GROSS OPERATING PROFIT

Graph: Construction, Company gross operating profits



The current price trend estimate for company gross operating profits has remained relatively flat over the latest five quarters.


WHOLESALE TRADE
COMPANY GROSS OPERATING PROFIT

Graph: Wholesale trade, Company gross operating profits



The current price trend estimate for company gross operating profits has been increasing steadily since September quarter 1999.

INVENTORIES

Graph: Wholesale trade, Inventories



The trend estimate for inventories (in volume terms) continued the strong build up which commenced in June quarter 2002.

Sales of goods and services

Graph: Wholesale trade, Sales of goods and services



The trend estimate for sales of goods and services (in volume terms) has grown steadily since December quarter 2000.


RETAIL TRADE
COMPANY GROSS OPERATING PROFITS

Graph: Retail trade, Company gross operating profits



The current price trend estimate for company gross operating profits has decreased in the last two quarters after peaking in December quarter 2003.

INVENTORIES

Graph: Retail trade, Inventories



The trend estimate for inventories (in volume terms) has increased in the latest two quarters after declining in December quarter 2003.

Sales of goods and services

Graph: Retail trade, Sales of goods and services



The trend estimate for sales of goods and services (in volume terms) grew steadily this quarter continuing the growth present since December quarter 2002.


TRANSPORT AND STORAGE
COMPANY GROSS OPERATING PROFITS

Graph: Transport and Storage, Company gross operating profits



The current price trend estimate for company gross operating profits has increased strongly over the latest four quarters after being relatively flat throughout 2002-03.

Sales of goods and services

Graph: Transport and Storage, Sales of goods and services



The trend estimate for sales of goods and services (in volume terms) has increased strongly throughout 2003-04 after falls during 2002-03.


PROPERTY AND BUSINESS SERVICES
COMPANY GROSS OPERATING PROFITS

Graph: Property and Business Services, Company gross operating profits



The current price trend estimate for company gross operating profits has increased strongly for the fifth successive quarter.

Sales of goods and service

Graph: Property and Business Services, Sales of goods and services



The trend estimate for sales of goods and services (in volume terms) decreased in the June quarter 2004 following increases in the previous four quarters.

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