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5368.0 - International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, Jun 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 29/07/2004   
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JUNE KEY FIGURES

April 2004
May 2004
June 2004
May 04 to Jun 04
$m
$m
$m
% change

Trend

Balance on goods & services
-1,943
-1,959
-1,967
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
12,374
12,673
12,956
2
Debits (imports of goods & services)
14,317
14,632
14,923
2

Seasonally Adjusted

Balance on goods & services
-1,810
-1,854
-2,222
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
12,499
12,865
13,272
3
Debits (imports of goods & services)
14,309
14,719
15,494
5

. . not applicable

Balance on goods and services
Graph: Balance on goods and services



JUNE KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES
  • The provisional trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,967m in June 2004, an increase of $8m on the deficit in May.
  • Goods and services credits rose $283m (2%) to $12,956m. Goods and services debits rose $291m (2%) to $14,923m.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,222m in June, an increase of $368m on the deficit in May.
  • Goods and services credits rose $407m (3%) to $13,272m. Non-rural and other goods rose $219m (3%) and rural goods rose $205m (8%). Services credits fell $17m (1%).
  • Goods and services debits rose $775m (5%) to $15,494m. Capital goods rose $499m (19%), consumption goods rose $130m (3%) and intermediate and other goods rose $120m (2%). Services debits rose $26m (1%).


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original terms, the June balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,707m, an increase of $1,221m on the deficit in May. Goods and services credits rose $463m (4%) and goods and services debits rose $1,684m (12%).


2003-04 SITUATION
  • For 2003-04, the balance on goods and services (in original terms) was a deficit of $24.1b. This is an increase of $5.5b on the 2002-03 deficit and was driven by a $5.4b (4%) decrease in exports and a $0.1b increase in imports of goods and services.
  • In the year to June, exports of non-rural and other goods were down $5.8b (6%) and rural goods were down $1.0b (4%) on the corresponding period in 2002-03.


NOTES



REVISIONS

In original terms, revisions since the previous issue have increased the deficit on goods and services for the eleven months to May 2004 by $2m. The revision to the May 2004 estimate was an increase on the deficit of $5m. The revisions are the result of incorporating the latest available data.



CHANGES TO FORTHCOMING ISSUES

The July 2004 issue of this publication will contain two new memorandum items - Tourism indicators for services credits and debits. The indicators will be derived by aggregating various tourism related service components compiled as part of the standard presentation. The memorandum items will be included in Tables 5 and 6 of the publication, providing estimates of current price original, seasonally adjusted and trend series.



CAUTIONARY NOTE

The tables in this publication are presented on two bases. Tables 1-7 contain estimates of Australia's international trade in goods and services which have been adjusted for coverage, valuation and timing to a balance of payments basis. Tables 8-11 contain estimates of merchandise exports and imports based on Australian Customs Service records. Paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes provides an explanation of the difference between these bases.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Artur Andrysiak on Canberra (02) 6252 6792.



ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in June 2004 was a deficit of $1,967m, an increase of $8m on the deficit in May.


In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in June 2004 was a deficit of $2,222m, an increase of $368m on the deficit in May.


The sum of the seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to June 2004 was a deficit of $5,886m, an increase of $170m on the deficit of $5,716m for the three months to March 2004. However, if the more detailed seasonal factors used in compiling quarterly Balance of Payments are applied, the June quarter 2004 deficit was $5,974m, a decrease of $381m on the revised March quarter 2004 deficit of $6,355m.



EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $283m (2%) in June to $12,956m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $407m (3%) in June to $13,272m. Non-rural and other goods rose $219m (3%), rural goods rose $205m (8%), while services credits fell $17m (1%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS
Graph: Goods Credits



Rural goods

The trend estimate of rural goods exports rose $109m (5%) to $2,523m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, rural goods rose $205m (8%) to $2,682m.


Rural goods, in original terms, rose $84m (3%) to $2,603m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • cereal and cereal preparations, up $30m (5%), in contrast to an average May to June fall of 20% over the previous three years
  • other rural, up $48m (4%), in contrast to an average May to June fall of 6% over the previous three years
  • wool and sheepskins, up $9m (3%), in contrast to an average May to June fall of 11% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were meat and meat preparations, falling marginally, in contrast to an average May to June rise of 1% over the previous three years.


Non-rural and other goods

The trend estimate of non-rural and other goods exports rose $182m (2%) to $7,618m.


Seasonally adjusted, non-rural and other goods rose $219m (3%) to $7,792m.


In original terms, non-rural and other goods rose $243m (3%) to $7,805m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • other mineral fuels, up $113m (19%), in contrast to an average May to June fall of 5% over the previous three years
  • other non-rural, up $84m (11%), in contrast to an average May to June fall of 1% over the previous three years
  • other manufactures, up $49m (4%), in contrast to an average May to June fall of 1% over the previous three years
  • other goods, up $23m (4%), in contrast to an average May to June fall of 5% over the previous three years
  • machinery, up $20m (3%), in contrast to an average May to June fall of 4% over the previous three years
  • transport equipment, up $19m (4%), in contrast to an average May to June fall of 1% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were:
  • metal ores and minerals, down $38m (3%), in contrast to an average May to June rise of 7% over the previous three years
  • coal, coke and briquettes, down $21m (2%), in contrast to an average May to June rise of 3% over the previous three years.

Exports of services
SERVICES CREDITS
Graph: Services Credits



In trend terms, services credits fell $8m to $2,815m.


Seasonally adjusted, services credits fell $17m (1%) to $2,798m.


Movements in the seasonally adjusted components contributing to this fall were:

  • other services, down $8m (1%)
  • travel services, down $7m (1%)
  • passenger and other transportation services, down $3m (1%).

Partly offsetting these effects were freight transportation services, up $1m (1%).



IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $291m (2%) in June to $14,923m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $775m (5%) to $15,494m.


Capital goods rose $499m (19%), consumption goods rose $130m (3%), intermediate and other goods rose $120m (2%) and services debits rose $26m (1%).


Preliminary analysis shows that goods imports volumes, in seasonally adjusted terms, increased about 2.6% during the June quarter 2004. The Chain Laspeyres price index rose about 4.5% and the implicit price deflator rose about 4.2%. The final volume and price outcomes will be published in the June quarter 2004 issue of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (5302.0).


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS
Graph: Goods Debits



The trend estimate of imports of consumption goods rose $83m (2%) to $3,889m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $130m (3%) to $4,018m.


Imports of consumption goods, in original terms, rose $333m (10%) to $3,794m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted series were:

  • consumption goods n.e.s., up $71m (7%), in contrast to an average May to June fall of 8% over the previous three years
  • non-industrial transport equipment, up $118m (11%), compared with an average May to June rise of 4% over the previous three years
  • textiles, clothing and footwear, up $42m (12%), in contrast to an average May to June fall of 2% over the previous three years
  • toys, books and leisure goods, up $49m (18%), compared with an average May to June rise of 1% over the previous three years.

Offsetting these effects by about 1 percentage point was an adjustment made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account different trading day patterns in May and June.


Capital goods

The trend estimate of imports of capital goods rose $94m (3%) to $2,861m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $499m (19%) to $3,188m.


Imports of capital goods, in original terms, rose $904m (33%) to $3,605m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted series were:

  • civil aircraft, rising at a higher rate than their historical average
  • machinery and industrial equipment, up $180m (20%), in contrast to an average May to June fall of 5% over the previous three years
  • capital goods n.e.s., up $78m (20%), in contrast to an average May to June fall of 11% over the previous three years
  • ADP equipment, up $123m (25%), compared with an average May to June rise of 10% over the previous three years.

Offsetting these effects by about 5 percentage points was an adjustment made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account different trading day patterns in May and June.


Intermediate and Other Goods

The trend estimate of imports of intermediate and other goods rose $82m (2%) to $5,174m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, intermediate and other goods imports rose $120m (2%) to $5,269m.


Imports of intermediate and other goods, in original terms, rose $294m (6%) to $5,263m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted series were:

  • processed industrial supplies n.e.s., up $27m (3%), in contrast to an average May to June fall of 18% over the previous three years
  • other parts for capital goods, up $114m (15%), in contrast to an average May to June fall of 4% over the previous three years
  • other goods, up $112m (33%), compared with an average May to June rise of 2% over the previous three years
  • parts for transport equipment, up $53m (10%), in contrast to an average May to June fall of 4% over the previous three years.

Offsetting these effects were:
  • an adjustment made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account different trading day patterns in May and June, which detracted 3 percentage points from the rise
  • fuels and lubricants, down $62m (6%), compared with an average May to June fall of 2% over the previous three years
  • other merchandise goods, down $7m (8%), in contrast to an average May to June rise of 3% over the previous three years.

Imports of services
SERVICES DEBITS
Graph: Services Debits



In trend terms, services debits rose $32m (1%) to $2,999m.


Seasonally adjusted, services debits rose $26m (1%) to $3,019m.


Movements in the seasonally adjusted components contributing to this rise were:

  • freight transportation services, up $31m (6%)
  • passenger and other transportation services, up $6m (1%).

Partly offsetting these effects were:
  • travel services, down $6m (1%)
  • other services, down $5m (1%).

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