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5368.0 - International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, Dec 2003  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 02/02/2004   
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December Key Figures

Key Figures

October
November
December
Nov 03 to Dec 03
$m
$m
$m
% change

TREND
Balance on goods & services
-2,031
-2,047
-2,066
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
11,562
11,601
11,632
-
Debits (imports of goods & services)
13,593
13,648
13,698
-
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
Balance on goods & services
-1,714
-1,715
-2,554
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
11,699
11,675
11,485
-2
Debits (imports of goods & services)
13,413
13,390
14,039
5

. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

Balance on goods and services
Graph: Table 1_Key graph1



December Key Points


TREND ESTIMATES
  • The provisional trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,066m in December 2003, an increase of $19m on the deficit in November.
  • Goods and services credits rose $31m to $11,632m. Goods and services debits increased $50m to $13,698m.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,554m in December, an increase of $839m on the deficit in November.
  • Goods and services credits fell $190m (2%) to $11,485m, with services credits down $181m (6%), and goods credits down $9m. Non-rural and other goods fell $110m (2%), while rural goods rose $101m (6%).
  • Goods and services debits rose $649m (5%) to $14,039m, with goods debits up $681m (7%) and services debits down $32m (1%). Intermediate and other goods rose $371m (8%), capital goods rose $160m (6%), and consumption goods rose $150m (4%).


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original terms, the December balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,047m, an increase of $473m on the deficit in November. The increased deficit was the result of a $917m (7%) rise in imports of goods and services, and a $444m (4%) increase in exports of goods and services.
  • The 2003 calendar year deficit on goods and services was $23,905m. The goods deficit was $23,372m and the services deficit was $533m.


Notes


REVISIONS

In original terms, revisions since the previous issue have:
  • decreased the deficit on goods and services for the five months to November by $47m
  • decreased the deficit on goods and services for 2002-03 by $16m.


CAUTIONARY NOTE

The tables in this publication are presented on two bases. Tables 1-6 contain estimates of Australia's international trade in goods and services which have been adjusted for coverage, valuation and timing to a balance of payments basis. Tables 7-10 contain estimates of merchandise exports and imports based on Australian Customs Service records. Paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes provides an explanation of the difference between these bases.



Inquiries

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Artur Andrysiak on Canberra 02 6252 6792.

ADDITIONAL TABLES ON AUSSTATS


TABLES AVAILABLE ON AUSSTATS

12 Merchandise exports by Broad Economic Category (BEC)
13 Merchandise exports by industry of origin (ANZSIC)
14 Merchandise imports by Broad Economic Category (BEC)
15 Merchandise imports by Balance of Payments Broad Economic Category (BoPBEC)
16 Merchandise imports by industry of origin (ANZSIC)
17 Merchandise exports, state by country and country groups
18 Merchandise imports, state by country and country groups
19 Monthly forward seasonal adjustment factors



Analysis and comments


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in December 2003 was a deficit of $2,066m, an increase of $19m on the deficit in November.


In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in December 2003 was a deficit of $2,554m, an increase of $839m on the deficit in November.


The sum of the seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to December 2003 was a deficit of $5,983m, a decrease of $727m on the deficit of $6,710m for the three months to September 2003. However, if the more detailed seasonal factors used in compiling quarterly Balance of Payments are applied, the December quarter 2003 deficit was $6,085m, a decrease of $325m on the revised September quarter 2003 deficit of $6,410m.



EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $31m in December to $11,632m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $190m (2%) in December to $11,485m. Services credits fell $181m (6%), non-rural and other goods fell $110m (2%), while rural goods rose $101m (6%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS
Graph: Goods Credits



Rural goods

The trend estimate of rural goods rose $15m (1%) to $1,855m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, rural goods increased $101m (6%) to $1,879m.


Rural goods, in original terms, increased $277m (15%) to $2,111m.


Contributing to the increase in the seasonally adjusted series were:

  • cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $147m (53%), in contrast to an average November to December fall of 11% over the previous three years. This rise was mostly due to a $89m increase in barley and a $64m (34%) increase in wheat exports, driven by volumes.
  • other rural, up $147m (18%), compared with an average November to December rise of 1% over the previous three years. Contributing to this increase were canola, up $57m, and raw hides, fur skins and other textile fibres, up $34m (35%).
  • wool and sheepskins, down $2m (1%), compared with an average November to December fall of 15% over the previous three years.

Non-rural and other goods

The trend estimate of non-rural and other goods exports fell $17m to $6,837m.


Seasonally adjusted, non-rural and other goods decreased $110m (2%) to $6,803m.


In original terms, non-rural and other goods rose $286m (4%) to $7,177m.


Contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted series were:

  • coal, coke and briquettes, up $8m (1%), compared with an average November to December rise of 11% over the previous three years
  • other non-rural, down $49m (6%), in contrast to an average November to December rise of 3% over the previous three years
  • machinery, down $6m (1%), in contrast to an average November to December rise of 11% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were:
  • other goods, up $75m (12%), in contrast to an average November to December fall of 9% over the previous three years
  • metals (exc gold), up $56m (9%), compared with an average November to December rise of 6% over the previous three years.

Exports of services
SERVICES CREDITS
Graph: Services Credits



Seasonally adjusted, services credits fell $181m (6%) to $2,803m.


Contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted series were:

  • travel services, down $188m (12%). This fall was mostly due to travel services returning to recent historical levels following the Rugby World Cup in October and November.
  • passenger and other transportation services, down $5m (1%)
  • freight transportation services, down $4m (6%).

Partly offsetting these effects were other services, up $16m (2%).



IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $50m in December to $13,698m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $649m (5%) to $14,039m.


Intermediate and other goods rose $371m (8%), capital goods rose $160m (6%), and consumption goods rose $150m (4%), while services debits fell $32m (1%).


Preliminary analysis shows that goods import volumes, in seasonally adjusted terms, increased about 3.0% during the December quarter 2003. The Chain Laspeyres price index fell by about 3.3% and the implicit price deflator fell by about 3.9%. The final volume and price outcomes will be published in the December quarter 2003 issue of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (5302.0).


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS
Graph: Goods Debits



Consumption goods

The trend estimate of imports of consumption goods rose $21m (1%) to $3,493m.


Seasonally adjusted, consumption goods imports rose $150m (4%) to $3,545m.


Imports of consumption goods, in original terms, decreased $3m to $3,517m.


Contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted series were:

  • consumption goods nes, down $40m (4%), compared with an average November to December fall of 20% over the previous three years
  • non-industrial transport equipment, up $63m (6%), in contrast to an average November to December fall of 4% over the previous three years
  • food and beverages, up $70m (17%), in contrast to an average November to December fall of 5% over the previous three years
  • household electrical items, down $29m (8%), compared with the average November to December fall of 28% over the previous three years.

Capital goods

The trend estimate of imports of capital goods rose $11m to $2,604m.


Seasonally adjusted, capital goods imports rose $160m (6%) to $2,764m.


Imports of capital goods, in original terms, increased $292m (12%) to $2,825m.


Contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted series were:

  • machinery and industrial equipment, up $185m (22%), in contrast to an average November to December fall of 11% over the previous three years. Contributing to this increase were other machinery and industrial equipment, up $58m (13%), and civil engineering and contractors, up $54m (66%).
  • capital goods n.e.s., up $39m (11%), in contrast to an average November to December fall of 9% over the previous three years
  • industrial transport equipment, up $5m (2%), in contrast to an average November to December fall of 18% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were civil aircraft, rising at a lower rate than their historical average.


Intermediate and other goods

The trend estimate of imports of intermediate and other goods fell $14m to $4,662m.


Seasonally adjusted, intermediate and other goods rose $371m (8%) to $4,828m.


Imports of intermediate and other goods, in original terms, increased $581m (14%) to $4,879m.


Contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted series were:

  • fuels and lubricants, up $262m (42%), compared with an average November to December rise of 4% over the previous three years. This rise was mostly due to a $157m (93%) increase in other petroleum products and a $104m (24%) increase in imports of crude petroleum.
  • processed industrial supplies n.e.s., up $38m (4%), in contrast to an average November to December fall of 17% over the previous three years
  • other parts for capital goods n.e.s., up $45m (7%), in contrast to an average November to December fall of 9% over the previous three years
  • parts for transport equipment, up $3m (1%), in contrast to an average November to December fall of 11% over the previous three years
  • non-monetary gold, rising at a higher rate than its historical average.

Imports of services
SERVICES DEBITS
Graph: Services Debits



Seasonally adjusted, services debits fell $32m (1%) to $2,902m.


Contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted series were:

  • other services, down $91m (9%)
  • passenger and other transportation services, down $17m (4%).

Partly offsetting these effects were:
  • freight transportation services, up $65m (14%)
  • travel services up $11m (1%).

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