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5302.0.55.004 - Balance of Payments - Goods and Services, Preliminary Quarterly Estimates, Sep 2013  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 26/11/2013   
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The ABS provides information on Australia's international trade in goods and services in three publications:

  • International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia (cat. no. 5368.0) provides monthly current price estimates for both credits (exports) and debits (imports).
  • This publication provides the following selected broad level preliminary quarterly estimates for the current quarter:
    • current price estimates of the balance on goods and services, and
    • chain volume measures and price indexes for goods debits.
  • Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0) provides quarterly estimates in current prices, chain volume measures and price indexes for goods and services credits and debits plus the full balance of payments and international investment position in current prices.

Estimates may be revised between the monthly estimates in cat. no. 5368.0, the preliminary estimates in this publication and the quarterly estimates in cat. no. 5302.0. The September quarter issue of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0) will be released on 3 December 2013.


PRELIMINARY CURRENT PRICE ESTIMATES OF BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES
  • In seasonally adjusted current price terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,574m in the September quarter 2013, a fall of $89m (3%) on the revised June quarter 2013 deficit of $2,663m. The main components contributing to the fall were:
    • goods debits, up $2,435m (4%)
      • non-industrial transport equipment, up $360m (8%)
      • fuels and lubricants, up $300m (3%)
      • machinery and industrial equipment, up $275m (6%).
    • services debits, up $13m
    • goods credits, up $2,253m (3%)
      • metal ores and minerals, up $1,475m (7%).
    • services credits, up $284m (2%)
      • travel, up $255m (3%).


PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES OF CHAIN VOLUME MEASURES AND PRICE INDEXES FOR GOODS DEBITS (footnote 1, footnote 2)
  • In seasonally adjusted terms, goods imports volumes fell 2.4% and the implicit price deflator rose 6.3% during the September quarter 2013.
  • In original terms, the chain Laspeyres price index rose 6.5% and the implicit price deflator rose 6.6%.


CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

CHAIN VOLUME MEASURES

As announced in the Information Paper: Outcome of the Review of the Producer and International Trade Price Indexes, 2012 (cat. no. 6427.0.55.004), from this issue the ABS is fully incorporating the use of International Trade Price Indexes (ITPIs) in the compilation of Balance of Payments (and National Accounts) Chain Volume Measures (CVMs) for goods. This change improves the coherence between the ITPIs and the Balance of Payments and National Accounts export and imports of goods chain price indexes and Implicit Price Deflators (IPDs). This new method is applied from September quarter 2012 onward.


ANNUAL SEASONAL RE–ANALYSIS

The seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of goods and services have been revised as a result of the annual seasonal re–analysis. This re–analysis reviews the seasonal and trading day factors in more detail than is possible in the quarterly processing cycle and assesses the appropriateness of any prior corrections. For more information about seasonal adjustment see paragraphs 11 to 15 of the Explanatory Notes.


RE–REFERENCING OF CHAIN VOLUME ESTIMATES, IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS, AND TERMS OF TRADE INDEXES

Chain volume estimates, implicit price deflators, and terms of trade indexes have been re–referenced to 2011–12. Additivity has been preserved in the quarters subsequent to the new reference year as well as the annual sum of the quarters in the reference year. Re–referencing affects the levels, but not the movements, of chain volume estimates, implicit price deflators and terms of trade indexes. This does not apply to balance on goods and services where the components have been re–referenced separately. This has resulted in revisions to the growth rates of chain volume estimates, implicit price deflators and terms of trade indexes for all periods from September quarter 2011.


INQUIRIES

For further information contact Val Tot on Canberra (02) 6252 5540.


Footnote:
1 Reference year for chain volume measures and price index is 2011–12. See paragraphs 16 to 18 of the Explanatory Notes.

2 In this commentary movements in indexes are based on data to four decimal places.

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