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5671.0 - Lending Finance, Australia, Oct 2007  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 12/12/2007   
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OCTOBER KEY FIGURES

Sep 2007
Oct 2007
Sep 2007 to Oct 2007
$m
$m
% change

TREND ESTIMATES
Housing finance for owner occupation
15 249
15 136
-0.7
Personal finance
6 670
6 628
-0.6
Commercial finance
43 699
43 713
-
Lease finance
569
582
2.2
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
Housing finance for owner occupation
14 988
15 157
1.1
Personal finance
6 371
6 859
7.7
Commercial finance
42 952
42 634
-0.7
Lease finance
571
612
7.2

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

Personal finance
Graph: Personal Finance

Commercial finance
Graph: Commercial Finance



OCTOBER KEY POINTS


OCTOBER 2007 COMPARED WITH SEPTEMBER 2007:

HOUSING FINANCE FOR OWNER OCCUPATION

  • The total value of owner occupied housing commitments excluding alterations and additions increased by 1.1% (seasonally adjusted), while the trend series fell 0.7%.


PERSONAL FINANCE
  • The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total personal finance commitments rose by 7.7%. This increase was due to a rise in revolving credit commitments (up 9.4%) and fixed lending commitments (up 5.6%).
  • The trend series for the value of total personal finance fell 0.6%, due to a fall in both fixed lending commitments (down 0.6%) and revolving credit commitments (down 0.6%).


COMMERCIAL FINANCE
  • The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total commercial finance commitments fell by 0.7%. This decrease was due to a fall in fixed lending commitments (down 7.5%), partially offset by an increase in revolving credit commitments (up 11.6%).
  • The trend series for the value of total commercial finance commitments remained virtually unchanged. This was due to a fall in fixed lending commitments (down 0.4%), offsetting a rise in revolving credit commitments (up 0.7%).


LEASE FINANCE
  • Lease finance commitments (seasonally adjusted) increased by 7.2%. The lease finance trend series rose by 2.2%.


NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE Release Date
November 2007 21 January 2008
December 2007 13 February 2008
January 2008 12 March 2008
February 2008 15 April 2008
March 2008 13 May 2008
April 2008 11 June 2008



CHANGES TO FORTHCOMING ISSUES

The November 2007 issue of Lending Finance, Australia (5671.0) will contain revisions to seasonally adjusted and trend estimates due to the 2007 annual seasonal reanalysis.


Recently, the ABS implemented improved methods of producing seasonally adjusted estimates, focused on the application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling techniques. The revision properties of the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates can be improved by the use of ARIMA modelling. ARIMA modelling relies on the characteristics of the series being analysed to project future period data. The projected values are temporary, intermediate values, that are only used internally to improve the estimation of the seasonal factors. The projected data do not affect the original estimates and are discarded at the end of the seasonal adjustment process.


The seasonal adjustment Lending Finance estimates will use, from the 2007 annual seasonal reanalysis, concurrent seasonal adjustment with ARIMA modelling where applicable to reduce the level of revision to seasonally adjust estimates. For more information on the details of ARIMA modelling see Feature article: Use of ARIMA modelling to reduce revisions, October 2004 issue of Australian Economic Indicators (cat.no.1350.0).



REVISIONS

Revisions were made to Personal Finance and Commercial Finance to include the latest available administrative and survey data. The revisions impact data from October 2006 on.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Philip Beresford on Canberra (02) 6252 6052.


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