3401.0.55.001 - Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia, Jun 2004  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 15/07/2004   
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This electronic release contains modelled estimates of short-term visitor arrivals to Australia based on passport transactions for the current month and passenger card disaggregations from earlier months. There is no printed publication available for this release, however, it is closely related to the monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0).


NOTES

DATA NOTES

The estimates presented in this publication provide an early indication of short-term visitor arrival movements prior to final data becoming available for the reference month. Monthly data prior to the reference month are final estimates. The ABS encourages users of these data to refer to the ABS monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0) for final ABS estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for the reference period. Final estimates for June 2004 will be released on 13 August 2004.

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 6 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

Calculations of percentage and numeric change as shown in the Main Features of this publication are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 10 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Chrissy Beruldsen at c.beruldsen@abs.gov.au or telephone (02) 6252 5640.


MAIN FEATURES


TREND ESTIMATES

Trend estimates have been revised to take into account the impact of recent world events. See paragraph 18 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

The trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals to Australia for June 2004 (423,400 movements) increased by 0.1% compared with May 2004 (422,800 movements). This small increase followed a decrease of 0.2% for April and little change for May 2004. The trend estimate for June 2004 was 2.0% lower than when the series last peaked in November 2003 (431,800 movements).


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

According to seasonally adjusted estimates, there were 426,100 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during June 2004, representing an increase of 0.4% compared with May 2004 (424,400 movements). This followed revised increases of 0.8% for April and 0.1% for May 2004.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

There were an estimated 364,400 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during June 2004. This represents an increase of 18.2% compared with June 2003 (308,300 movements). However, the original time series is affected by such events as the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and the anticipation and commencement of military action in Iraq, which resulted in fewer than usual visitor arrivals for the first half of 2003.

During June 2004, large numbers of short-term visitor arrivals came from New Zealand (89,100 movements), Japan (45,800 movements), the United States of America (40,600 movements), the United Kingdom (29,400 movements) and Singapore (26,100 movements). Compared with June 2003, there were large increases in the number of short-term visitor arrivals from New Zealand (up 21,200 movements or 31%), Japan (up 16,200 movements or 55%), China (up 7,700 movements or 169%) and Taiwan (up 6,500 movements or 174%). The large increases in visitor arrivals from countries in Northeast Asia reflect the significant impact that world events had on travel to Australia from those destinations during 2003.

During the 2003–04 financial year there were an estimated 5,054,300 short-term visitor arrival movements to Australia, representing an increase of 9% compared with the 2002–03 financial year. Large numbers of short-term visitor arrivals came from New Zealand (925,800 movements), Japan (687,200 movements), the United Kingdom (685,400 movements) and the United States of America (430,300 movements). Compared with the 2002–03 financial year, there were large increases in the number of visitor arrivals from New Zealand (up 132,700 movements or 17%), the United Kingdom (up 41,200 movements or 6%), China (up 38,000 or 21%), and Malaysia (32,500 movements or 23%).

TABLE 1: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT: VISITOR ARRIVALS - JUNE 2004

May 04
June 03
June
to June
to June
04
04
04
%
%
'000
change
change
Short-term visitor arrivals

Trend(a)
423.4
0.1
..
Seasonally adjusted(a)
426.1
0.4
..
Original
364.4
..
18.2

(a) Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates may be revised each month. See paragraphs 14 and 17 of the Explanatory Notes.

TABLE 2: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT: VISITOR ARRIVALS(a) - COUNTRY OF RESIDENCE

Calendar year

Financial year

Quarter ended June

June

2002
2003
2002-03
2003-04
2003
2004
2003
2004(a)
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000

OCEANIA & ANTARCTICA -
New Zealand
790.1
839.1
793.1
925.8
203.4
252.0
67.9
89.1
Total
905.0
956.5
904.7
1047.5
227.7
279.1
76.3
98.0
EUROPE & THE FORMER USSR -
Germany
134.8
137.9
134.0
140.5
20.4
20.9
4.8
5.5
Italy
43.3
41.3
42.5
43.4
4.5
6.6
1.7
2.4
Netherlands
53.0
51.0
52.1
49.4
7.1
6.7
2.4
2.0
Sweden
30.9
31.8
31.8
32.6
4.1
4.3
1.3
1.4
Switzerland
41.5
40.9
41.2
41.5
5.4
6.1
1.6
1.7
United Kingdom
642.7
672.8
644.2
685.4
107.5
110.9
28.9
29.4
Total
1180.5
1212.0
1170.4
1242.9
185.0
197.4
54.6
56.9
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA -
Total
51.5
52.7
50.2
56.7
8.4
11.5
3.2
4.6
SOUTHEAST ASIA -
Indonesia
89.4
90.3
86.9
90.8
19.2
18.4
7.9
7.5
Malaysia
159.0
155.6
142.4
174.9
27.1
40.2
8.7
11.5
Philippines
28.5
27.0
25.4
30.3
7.2
8.8
1.9
2.1
Singapore
286.9
253.4
261.6
252.4
57.0
62.6
30.3
26.1
Thailand
82.7
73.2
75.5
79.3
17.2
23.1
4.8
4.2
Total
673.8
625.3
617.7
653.0
133.9
159.0
56.0
53.6
NORTHEAST ASIA -
China
190.0
176.1
177.1
215.1
17.1
46.1
4.5
12.2
Japan
715.5
627.7
658.6
687.2
102.6
153.0
29.5
45.8
Korea
189.7
207.3
195.8
215.8
36.2
44.4
14.1
14.2
Taiwan
97.4
87.7
80.8
104.2
9.8
26.5
3.8
10.3
Total
1345.5
1230.0
1254.8
1359.5
194.5
303.6
65.0
94.0
THE AMERICAS -
Canada
90.9
87.9
86.5
92.4
13.7
16.1
4.1
4.4
USA
434.5
422.1
423.5
430.3
94.2
101.3
38.5
40.6
Total
556.2
537.5
537.1
551.9
112.9
123.3
44.5
47.0
AFRICA (excluding North Africa) -
South Africa
51.0
52.7
47.5
54.5
10.7
10.7
3.3
3.5
Total
67.3
69.2
62.7
72.0
13.7
14.2
4.2
4.6
Total(b)
4841.2
4745.9
4655.8
5054.3
890.7
1108.4
308.3
364.4

(a) June 2004 data are statistically modelled on passport movements and past arrival trends from passenger cards. Monthly data prior to June 2004 are final estimates based on passenger card data.
(b) Includes Southern Asia and not stated/inadequately described.