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3401.0.55.001 - Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia, Nov 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 15/12/2004   
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NOTES

DATA NOTES

The estimates presented in this publication provide an early indication of short-term visitor arrival movements prior to final data becoming available for the reference month. Monthly data prior to the reference month are final estimates. The ABS encourages users of these data to refer to the ABS monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0) for final ABS estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for the reference period. Final estimates for November 2004 will be released on 14 January 2005.


This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 6 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


Calculations of percentage and numeric change as shown in the Main Features of this publication are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 10 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


Original estimates are influenced by seasonal and one-off irregular factors which can distort interpretations of the underlying growth in the series. Therefore, the ABS encourages the use of the trend estimates for time series analysis. See the Demography Working Paper 2004/2 - Interpretation and Use of Overseas Arrivals and Departures Estimates (cat. no. 3106.0.55.002).


Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates at the current end of the series are subject to revision due to additional original information becoming available. See paragraphs 14 and 17 of the Explanatory Notes.


Format change

As announced in the October 2004 issue of this release, the format of Table 2: Short-term Movement, Visitor Arrivals - Country of Residence has changed with this issue. The table now provides:

  • for trend estimates, the current month and previous month, the percentage monthly change and the percentage change from the same month last year;
  • for seasonally adjusted estimates, the current month and previous months, and percentage monthly change; and
  • for original estimates: the current month.
Longer time series of trend, seasonally adjusted and original estimates are available from accompanying spreadsheets. Original estimates calendar and financial year totals will be available in the monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0). These changes are consistent with the principles set out in Demography Working Paper 2004/2 - Interpretation and Use of Overseas Arrivals and Departures Estimates (cat. no. 3106.0.55.002).


INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070.



MAIN FEATURES


TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia for November 2004 (446,000 movements) increased by 0.7% compared with October 2004 (442,800 movements). This followed similar increases of 0.7% each for September and October 2004.


According to trend estimates, this is the ninth consecutive monthly increase in the series. Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 5.0% higher than when the series last troughed in February 2004.



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

According to seasonally adjusted estimates, there were 455,800 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during November 2004, representing an increase of 4.9% compared with October 2004 (434,600 movements). This followed decreases of 0.3% for September and 0.1% for October 2004.

Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Visitor arrivals Short-term




ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original movement terms there were an estimated 481,600 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during November 2004 representing an increase of 7.1% on October 2004 (449,900 movements).

TABLE 1: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT, VISITOR ARRIVALS(a) - November 2004

Nov 04
Oct 04 to Nov 04
Nov 03 to Nov 04
'000
% change
% change

Trend
446.0
0.7
4.5
Seasonally adjusted
455.8
4.9
. .
Original
481.6
. .
. .

. . not applicable
(a) Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates may be revised each month. See paragraphs 14 and 17 of Explanatory Notes.

TABLE 2: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT(a), VISITOR ARRIVALS - Country of Residence(b)

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Oct 04
Nov 04
Oct 04 to Nov 04
Nov 03 to Nov 04
Oct 04
Nov 04
Oct 04 to Nov 04
Nov 04
Country of residence
'000
'000
% change
% change
'000
'000
% change
'000

OCEANIA & ANTARCTICA
New Zealand
88.1
88.0
-0.1
16.8
86.8
87.9
1.3
83.6
Total
98.4
98.3
-0.1
15.0
97.0
98.1
1.1
93.8
NORTH-WEST EUROPE
Germany
11.6
11.6
-0.6
-2.0
11.7
11.1
-5.3
13.3
Netherlands
4.0
3.9
-0.7
-4.3
3.8
4.0
6.3
5.3
Sweden
2.7
2.7
1.9
2.4
2.7
2.9
6.8
3.7
Switzerland
3.2
3.2
1.0
-5.8
3.3
3.2
-4.3
4.2
United Kingdom
54.7
53.8
-1.5
-7.1
55.3
52.1
-5.8
64.6
Total
91.7
90.8
-0.9
-4.4
92.3
89.1
-3.4
109.4
SOUTHERN & EASTERN EUROPE
Italy
4.0
4.0
0.1
8.4
4.1
3.9
-6.8
3.6
Total
9.1
9.1
-0.1
1.6
9.5
9.0
-5.0
10.4
NORTH AFRICA & THE MIDDLE EAST
5.8
6.0
3.4
23.1
5.1
7.1
39.6
6.4
SOUTH-EAST ASIA
Indonesia
7.6
7.9
4.4
12.6
4.6
11.3
147.8
8.0
Malaysia
15.5
15.7
1.2
2.7
13.4
17.0
26.5
19.6
Philippines
2.6
2.5
-0.7
-1.5
2.4
2.6
7.2
2.4
Singapore
21.9
22.6
3.3
3.3
22.4
24.3
8.6
35.2
Thailand
6.8
7.0
2.6
11.7
6.2
7.6
21.9
5.1
Total
56.3
57.6
2.5
4.4
50.9
64.9
27.5
72.5
NORTH-EAST ASIA
China
21.3
22.0
3.4
16.8
(c)n.p.
(c)n.p.
(c)n.p.
23.4
Japan
63.9
65.6
2.7
5.2
63.5
65.6
3.3
66.4
Korea
18.8
19.0
0.9
2.8
19.0
19.1
0.3
21.2
Taiwan
8.4
8.7
3.2
-4.9
7.7
10.9
42.0
8.2
Total
124.4
127.6
2.6
6.4
124.9
130.5
4.5
129.8
AMERICAS
Canada
8.1
7.9
-2.2
2.5
7.4
8.3
12.8
10.2
United States of America
35.2
34.5
-2.0
-2.4
34.0
34.2
0.5
34.5
Total
45.7
44.9
-1.8
-1.3
43.8
45.0
2.7
47.1
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
South Africa
3.9
3.8
-2.2
-13.9
3.5
4.0
16.2
4.5
Total
5.2
5.1
-1.2
-12.8
4.8
5.4
13.7
6.2
Total(d)
442.8
446.0
0.7
4.5
434.6
455.8
4.9
481.6

(a) This table presents a summary of the most recent overseas arrivals and departures estimates. Time series data for months earlier than those presented in this table are available as AusStats time series spreadsheets.
(b) Data for the current month are statistically modelled on passport movements and past arrival trends from passenger cards. Monthly data prior to the current month are final estimates based on passenger card data.
(c) Seasonally adjusted data for short-term visitor arrivals from China is of an unpublishable standard.
(d) Includes Southern Asia and not stated/inadequately described.

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