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5368.0 - International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, Sep 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 01/11/2004   
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SEPTEMBER KEY FIGURES

July 2004
August 2004
September 2004
Aug 04 to Sep 04
$m
$m
$m
% change

Trend

Balance on goods & services
-2,087
-2,130
-2,153
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
13,118
13,239
13,299
-
Debits (imports of goods & services)
15,205
15,369
15,452
1

Seasonally Adjusted

Balance on goods & services
-2,642
-1,837
-2,105
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
12,935
12,880
13,368
4
Debits (imports of goods & services)
15,577
14,717
15,473
5

. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

Balance on goods and services
Graph: Balance on goods and services



SEPTEMBER KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES
  • The provisional trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,153m in September 2004, an increase of $23m on the deficit in August.
  • Goods and services credits rose $60m to $13,299m. Non-rural and other goods rose $63m (1%), while rural goods fell $16m (1%). Services credits rose $13m.
  • Goods and services debits rose $83m (1%) to $15,452m. Intermediate and other goods rose $97m (2%), while capital goods fell $11m and consumption goods fell $4m. Services debits rose $1m.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,105m in September, an increase of $268m on the deficit in August.
  • Goods and services credits rose $488m (4%) to $13,368m. Non-rural and other goods rose $346m (4%) and rural goods rose $65m (3%). Services credits rose $77m (3%).
  • Goods and services debits rose $756m (5%) to $15,473m. Intermediate and other goods rose $485m (9%), consumption goods rose $296m (8%), while capital goods fell $109m (4%). Services debits rose $84m (3%).


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original terms, the September balance on goods and services was a deficit of $3,219m, an increase of $1,035m on the deficit in August. Goods and services credits fell marginally, while goods and services debits rose $1,033m (7%).
  • In the three months to September, exports of non-rural and other goods were up $2.7b (12%) and rural goods were up $1.7b (33%) on the corresponding period in 2003-04.


NOTES



REVISIONS

Revisions were made to incorporate the latest available data relating to merchandise trade and the quarterly Survey of International Trade in Services. In original terms, these revisions have:
  • decreased the deficit on goods and services for the two months to August 2004 by $127m
  • decreased the deficit on goods and services for 2003-04 by $91m.


CHANGES TO FORTHCOMING ISSUES

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of the balance on goods and services will be revised in the October 2004 issue of this publication as a result of the annual seasonal re-analysis. Forward seasonal factors are released as part of the electronic versions of the relevant publications (see 5368.0, Table 20, for monthly seasonal factors, and 5302.0, Table 95, for quarterly seasonal factors).


As foreshadowed in the August 2004 issue of this publication, commencing with the October 2004 issue, the ABS will introduce concurrent seasonal adjustment to improve the accuracy and consistency of the seasonally adjusted estimates. When the concurrent seasonal adjustment method is applied to the latest data up to September 2004, the magnitude of the balance on goods and services is of a similar level to that obtained using the forward factors method. However, the rise between August and September for goods and services credits is one percentage point below that obtained by using the forward factor method and the rise for goods and services debits is two percentage points below that obtained by using the forward factor method.



FEATURE ARTICLES

Feature articles on Australia's international trade in services by partner country and international trade in services by state for the financial year 2003-04 will be released on the ABS web site <http://www.abs.gov.au> concurrently with this publication. Comparable data for calendar year 2003 were released on 4 May 2004.


To access these articles on the web site select: Themes then International Trade then Topics of Interest



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Artur Andrysiak on (02) 6252 6792.



ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in September 2004 was a deficit of $2,153m, an increase of $23m on the deficit in August.


In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in September 2004 was a deficit of $2,105m, an increase of $268m on the deficit in August.


The sum of the seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to September 2004 was a deficit of $6,584m, an increase of $1,111m on the deficit of $5,473m for the three months to June 2004. However, if the more detailed seasonal factors used in compiling quarterly Balance of Payments are applied, the September quarter 2004 deficit was $6,440m, an increase of $912m on the revised June quarter 2004 deficit of $5,528m.



EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $60m in September to $13,299m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $488m (4%) in September to $13,368m. Non-rural and other goods rose $346m (4%), services credits rose $77m (3%) and rural goods rose $65m (3%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS
Graph: Goods Credits



Rural goods

The trend estimate of rural goods exports fell $16m (1%) to $2,433m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, rural goods rose $65m (3%) to $2,352m.


In original terms, rural goods rose $1m to $2,295m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • an adjustment made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account different trading day patterns in August and September, which contributed about 2 percentage points towards the overall rise
  • wool and sheepskins, up $81m (43%), compared with an average August to September rise of 19% over the previous three years
  • cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $22m (4%), in contrast to an average August to September fall of 2% over the previous three years
  • meat and meat preparations, up $58m (11%), compared with an average August to September rise of 7% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were exports of other rural, down $160m (15%), compared with an average August to September fall of 8% over the previous three years.


Non-rural and other goods

The trend estimate of non-rural and other goods exports rose $63m (1%) to $7,973m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, non-rural and other goods rose $346m (4%) to $8,092m.


In original terms, non-rural and other goods rose $102m (1%) to $8,250m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • an adjustment made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account different trading day patterns in August and September, which contributed about 6 percentage points towards the overall rise
  • other goods, up $100m (18%), in contrast to an average August to September fall of 11% over the previous three years
  • transport equipment, up $46m (12%), in contrast to an average August to September fall of 11% over the previous three years
  • machinery, up $31m (5%), in contrast to an average August to September fall of 5% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were:
  • coal, coke and briquettes, down $172m (12%), in contrast to an average August to September rise of 2% over the previous three years
  • metal ores and minerals, down $43m (3%), compared with an average August to September fall of 1% over the previous three years.

Exports of services
SERVICES CREDITS
Graph: Services Credits



In trend terms, services credits rose $13m to $2,893m.


Seasonally adjusted, services credits rose $77m (3%) to $2,924m.


Movements in the seasonally adjusted components contributing to this rise were:

  • travel services, up $48m (3%)
  • passenger and other transportation services, up $14m (2%)
  • other services, up $14m (2%).

Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services credits rose $53m (3%) to $1,812m.



IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $83m (1%) in September to $15,452m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $756m (5%) to $15,473m. Intermediate and other goods rose $485m (9%), consumption goods rose $296m (8%) and services debits rose $84m (3%), while capital goods fell $109m (4%).


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS
Graph: GOODS DEBITS



Consumption goods

The trend estimate of imports of consumption goods fell $4m to $3,880m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $296m (8%) to $3,954m.


In original terms, imports of consumption goods rose $437m (11%) to $4,376m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • consumption goods n.e.s., up $127m (10%), largely due to increased imports of medicaments, compared with an average August to September rise of 1% over the previous three years
  • non-industrial transport equipment, up $222m (25%), compared with an average August to September rise of 13% over the previous three years
  • textiles, clothing and footwear, down $17m (3%), compared with an average August to September fall of 13% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were food and beverages, up $17m (4%), compared with an average August to September rise of 6% over the previous three years.


Capital goods

The trend estimate of imports of capital goods fell $11m to $3,010m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $109m (4%) to $2,779m.


In original terms, imports of capital goods rose $78m (3%) to $3,020m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • an adjustment made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account different trading day patterns in August and September, which contributed about 3 percentage points towards the overall fall
  • civil aircraft, down $13m (11%), in contrast to strong August to September rises over the previous three years
  • telecommunications equipment, down $38m (9%), in contrast to an average August to September rise of 10% over the previous three years
  • capital goods n.e.s., down $32m (8%), in contrast to an average August to September rise of 1% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were:
  • machinery and industrial equipment, up $36m (3%), in contrast to an average August to September fall of 12% over the previous three years
  • industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $65m (18%), compared with an average August to September rise of 2% over the previous three years.

Intermediate and Other Goods

The trend estimate of imports of intermediate and other goods rose $97m (2%) to $5,579m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, intermediate and other goods imports rose $485m (9%) to $5,739m.


In original terms, imports of intermediate and other goods rose $290m (5%) to $5,723m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • fuels and lubricants, up $211m (21%), due to increased prices and volumes, in contrast to an average August to September fall of 7% over the previous three years
  • an adjustment made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account different trading day patterns in August and September, which contributed about 3 percentage points towards the overall rise
  • parts for transport equipment, up $33m (6%), in contrast to an average August to September fall of 8% over the previous three years
  • other merchandise goods, up $51m (60%), in contrast to an average August to September fall of 9% over the previous three years
  • organic and inorganic chemicals, up $21m (8%), in contrast to an average August to September fall of 13% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were:
  • processed industrial supplies n.e.s., down $26m (2%), in contrast to an average August to September rise of 3% over the previous three years
  • other goods, down $19m (4%), in contrast to an average August to September rise of 8% over the previous three years.

Imports of services
SERVICES DEBITS
Graph: SERVICES DEBITS



In trend terms, services debits rose $1m to $2,983m.


Seasonally adjusted, services debits rose $84m (3%) to $3,001m.


Movements in the seasonally adjusted components contributing to this rise were:

  • freight services, up $75m (13%)
  • travel services, up $31m (3%).

Partly offsetting these effects were:
  • other services, down $17m (2%)
  • passenger and other transportation services, down $5m (1%).

Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services debits fell $3m to $1,469m.

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